David Gately and Brad Waters analyse the Derby Day quaddie races

It’s one of the great days of racing around the world and form experts Brad Waters and David Gately weigh in with their analysis of the quaddie at Flemington, including a super showdown in the Victoria Derby.

Both Brad and Gator agree this flying mare is the one to beat in the final leg of the quaddie. Picture: AAP

Herald Sun tipster Brad Waters goes head-to-head with Sky Racing form analyst David “Gator” Gately as they assess the quaddie races at Flemington, including three Group 1s — the Coolmore Stud Stakes, Victoria Derby and Cantala Stakes.

RACE 6

BRAD: The straight track is the key to this race. By that I mean SEPTEMBER RUN (14) has shown a real liking for the straight track at her past two runs. The sectionals analysts would have loved her last 400m splits in those wins and the form is solid. I see Craig Williams giving her time to settle, tracking FARNAN (1) before testing her over the last 400m. I think she’ll pass the test. Farnan should give a great sight. I have no knock on WILD RULER (2) but liking the filly’s straight experience.

GATOR: Good point Brad, WILD RULER (2) has not been up the straight on race day but he did look good winning a jumpout here, beating FARNAN (1) and SEPTEMBER RUN (14), who both went very well also. WILD RULER easily beat DOUBTLAND at his latest run and that horse won Danehill Stakes here in September. SWATS THAT (12) is my best value play.

September Run loves the Flemington straight course and will be flying home in the Coolmore Stud Stakes. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 7

GATOR: Leaning to YOUNG WERTHER (5) here as he is the one with the most upside in what looks a very even year. Not easy winning a Derby at start three I concede that. CHERRY TORTONI (1) impressed at The Valley sustaining a long, wide run and Khoekhoe (2nd) clearly ties the form together, they gapped third. HIT THE SHOT (6) was flying late at Caulfield and the trip suits.

BRAD: I’ve reversed your picks, Gator. I give CHERRY TORTONI (1) a slight edge over YOUNG WERTHER (5) purely because of the fitness angle. Cherry Tortoni has had two runs over 2000m now and ran that trip right out last Saturday in the Moonee Valley Vase. Of course, it could prove that Young Werther’s freshness is the decisive factor! Think those two have a clear advantage over the Caulfield form but ALBARADO (2) will certainly see out the trip.

RACE 8

BRAD: Can’t go past MR QUICKIE (2) after his emphatic win in the Toorak Handicap but I’m also looking for a bit of insurance after he drew wide. I can’t see him in your numbers Gator, but I thought YULONG PRINCE (5) did an excellent job in the Epsom, which I think is a good form reference for this. Happy to play him as a saver at $14. CHIEF IRONSIDE (14) was sound in the Toorak and has drawn well. I see you’ve got REYKJAVIK (17) high in your thoughts, I think he’s a definite blowout hope back at Flemington but we can’t tip them all.

GATOR: Very well found by you in the Toorak, at a price, was MR QUICKIE (2) and he was dominant despite 59kg! He loves Flemington and I doubt the wide draw beats him as stats show 35% of horses win from back here when the rail is True-2m. ROCK (9) is my top pick at the value, race-fastest home in on-pace Epsom and winner Probabeel ran well in a Cox Plate. I wouldn’t faint if YULONG PRINCE (5) won but he hasn’t won for a long while. Wary REYKJAVIK (17) at a huge price if he gets into field. Last run was much better than it looks.

Mr Quickie will be hard to beat again after winning the Toorak in style. Picture: Getty Images

RACE 9

GATOR: DIAMOND EFFORT (3) has been matching it with elite Group 1 males and is back to her own sex, plus she’s proven up the straight. Hard to beat. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (4) was too strong for FITUESE last start and they beat the third well. Liked her win over Loving Gaby for this. EXHILARATES (1) is way over the odds for mine, forgive her last run.

BRAD: Have to agree with your assessment of DIAMOND EFFORT (3). She probably couldn’t have won the Manikato Stakes on the firm track but she can win at this level on a good track. She was an impressive winner at her only straight run and Ben Melham has an imposing record on her. FIESTA (2) enjoyed having plenty of galloping room at Caulfield and she gets it again down the straight. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (4) was game at Caulfield and has placed down the straight. I note you’ve left out FITUESE (8). I can see why. She has the talent but barrier one isn’t the best place to be down the straight.

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