Weekend best bets: Flemington, Rosehill, Doomben, Morphettville
Four winners last week and our tipsters are confident of a much bigger haul and plenty of value on Derby Day at Flemington and the Golden Eagle at Rosehill Gardens. LATEST ODDS
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Our experts give you an early shot at finding a winner at the major races around the nation this weekend.
Last week … Four winners. Nathan Exelby was the standout with his best bet, Love Struck, saluting at $6. Simon Moy was back in the winner’s circle with Portland Sky ($4.60), while Ray Thomas made it back-to-back best bet winners with Hilo ($3). Glenn McFarlane was on the money with his value bet, Written Beauty.
The meetings: FLEMINGTON (9 races, start 11.40am), ROYAL RANDWICK (9 races, 12.05pm), DOOMBEN (10 races, 12.13pm), MORPHETTVILLE (9 races, 12.31pm).
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TODAY’S FORM GUIDE AT THE TIP OF YOUR FINGER
FLEMINGTON
GLENN MCFARLANE (Herald Sun). Form: 1595s
AYSAR (Race 1, No. 3 — $2.15)
Beat all but Ole Kirk in the Caulfield Guineas and should be even better suited at Flemington.
Value bet: BUFFALO RIVER (Race 8, No. 13 — $6)
BRAD WATERS (Racenet). Form: 32152
MYSTIC JOURNEY (Race 5, No. 1 — $4.60)
The Tasmanian star was back to her best at The Valley and she loves the Flemington 1600m course. Suited at weight-for-age.
Value bet: YULONG PRINCE (Race 8, No. 5 — $12)
SIMON MOY (NewsRacing). Form: 15941
OCTANE (Race 3, No. 9 — $2.80)
Made ground at Flemington last start and drops in weight. Has won down the straight before with Jamie Kah.
Value bet: MYSTIC JOURNEY (Race 5, No. 1 — $4.60)
CHRIS VERNUCCIO (NewsRacing). Form: 11135
YOUNG WERTHER (Race 7, No. 5 — $4)
This is an extremely weak VRC Derby but there could be an X-factor about Young Werther, who goes into the race at just his third start. He looks like a natural stayer.
Value bet: WILD RULER (Race 6, No. 2 — $6.50)
DARREN PRENDERGAST (NewsRacing). Form: 72194
SEPTEMBER RUN (Race 6, No. 14 — $4.20)
Has come of age this campaign and is unbeaten in two starts down the Flemington straight. Big step up in class but she looks up to it.
Value bet: SUPERSTORM (Rosehill, Race 8, No. 3 — $15)
NICK QUINN (TAB). Form: 1215s
PERSONAL (Race 2, No. 1 — $3.20)
Thousand Guineas runner-up who looks suited stepping up to 2000m. Drawn well and with Damien Oliver in the saddle looks a good early play for punters.
Value bet: NONCONFORMIST (Race 8, No. 15 — $11)
STEPHEN BRASSEL (National Racing Editor). Form: s2112
OCTANE (Race 3, No. 9 — $2.80)
Impressive winning his only start down the Flemington straight and was enormous last start when beaten a neck under unsuitable WFA conditions in the Schillaci Stakes. Hey Doc finished fourth in that race and then won the Manikato while Dirty Works won at Caulfield then was third at The Valley. Octane drops to 54kg and looks placed to perfection.
Best value: NONCONFORMIST (Race 8, No. 15 — $11)
CLINTON PAYNE (Racenet). Form: 10114
ASHRUN (Race 4, No. 1 — $4)
Comes out of the Geelong Cup and should be spot-on for this assignment which will get him into the Melbourne Cup if victorious. Hard to beat from a perfect draw.
Value bet: ROCK (Race 8, No. 9 — $10)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
ROSEHILL GARDENS
RAY THOMAS (Daily Telegraph). Form: 28611
ARCHANNA (Race 4, No. 11 — $5.50)
She’s drawn to get the right run and she does handle wet tracks. The one to beat.
Value bet: STOCKMAN (Race 9, No. 5 — $17)
SHAYNE O’CASS (Daily Telegraph). Form: 1117x
GREEK HERO (Race 9, No. 16 — $11)
Flashy gelding imported to Australia by Dynamic Syndications and handed to Richard and Michael Freedman to train. He ran three times in May/June, winning at Kembla then running creditably against Opacity at Randwick before a spell. Trials have been very good.
Value bet: COCK MATCH (Race 1, No. 2 — $14)
JETT HATTON (Racenet). Form: 64114
HAUT BRION HER (Race 7, No. 12 — $6)
Her effort to stick on for fifth in The Everest after Eduardo set the lightning quick tempo was enormous. Think she’s more suited to 1300m than some of her main rivals and is well-weighted with just 55.5kg.
Value bet: SIERRA SUE (Race 8, No. 16 — $9.50)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
DOOMBEN
NATHAN EXELBY (The Courier-Mail). Form: 2s211
UNGUARDED / METSON (Race 10, Nos. 16, 17 — $12, $16)
Bracket selection here. Hope we get to the last race. Top fancies in this race aren’t proven in wet ground, but this pair are and they are in good form. Unguarded landed some good bets last time to win impressively. He’s going the right direction in Queensland. Metson beat Royal Hale two starts back, then bumped into a hot race last time. Extra trip looks a plus.
Value bet: DEPTHS BELOW (Race 8, No. 10 — $7.50)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
MORPHETTVILLE
WARREN PARTLAND (The Advertiser). Form: 39312
DIMAGGIO (Race 7, No. 5 — $3.30)
Had no luck last time when blocked for a run in the straight. The McEvoy-Vorster combination must always be highly respected.
Value bet: MAID IN MILAN (Race 6, No. 11 — $18)
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
s – denotes tip was scratched.
x – denotes spell or holiday.
Note: TAB odds correct at time of publishing.
Originally published as Weekend best bets: Flemington, Rosehill, Doomben, Morphettville