Flemington, Derby Day tips, odds, quaddie and betting analysis
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters is banking on Mystic Journey to strike again on her favourite track, while Leo Schlink is tipping a star colt to bounce back to his best on a cracking card at Flemington. BEST BETS, ANALYSIS
SuperRacing
Don't miss out on the headlines from SuperRacing. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Herald Sun form analyst Brad Waters runs the rule over the massive Derby Day card at Flemington, plus TAB tipping expert Nick Quinn chips in with his best plays of the day and Herald Sun chief racing writer Leo Schlink weighs in with his best bets.
TODAY’S FORM GUIDE AT THE TIP OF YOUR FINGER
LEO’S LOCKS
BEST BET
FARNAN (Race 6, No.1 — $5)
Golden Slipper who went too fast when resuming at Rosehill last start and pulled up with minor issues. Indicated he was back on track with blistering Gosford trial win on October 14.
NEXT BEST
AYSAR (Race 1, No.3 — $2.10)
Outstanding second in the Caulfield Guineas. The one to beat here.
PERSONAL (Race 2, No.1 — $3.10)
Brave when runner-up in the Thousand Guineas. Gets to 2000m now and is the clear measuring stick.
YOUNG WERTHER (Race 7, No.5 — $3.90)
Missed the Vase because track downgrade last week but shapes as a legitimate staying talent.
THE TRAINER
JAMES CUMMINGS
SILHOUETTE (Race 2, No.5 — $21): “The run in the Edward Manifold two runs ago was promising. There is little between her and Pensato.”
PENSATO (Race 2, No.7 — $15): “This filly can be an improver back to her home track at Flemington where she won the 1800m Oaks Trial so strongly.”
CORUSCATE (Race 3, No.1 — $10): “Back-to-back wins will see Coruscate leave the gates a confident horse (but) the weight poses an herculean task against testing opposition.”
ASIAGO (Race 5, No.7 — $61): “She was always off the track last start. In fact, the runs she has had in her past couple of starts should be put through the shredder. She has the quality to be given her chance in an open contest.”
BEST OF DAYS (Race 8, No.6 — $19): “Forgive him for failing last time when the rain came at Caulfield. Don’t be surprised to see him parade like a winner.”
CASCADIAN (Race 8, No.7 — $16): “Like Best Of Days, he is going to enjoy getting to this flat Flemington mile. They’ll give it a shake.”
EXHILARATES (Race 9, No.1 — $18): “Exhilarates was just over-travelling from her wide alley first up over 1200m. This will suit her better.”
BRAD’S SPECIALS
BEST BET
MYSTIC JOURNEY (Race 5, No.1)
VALUE BET
YULONG PRINCE (Race 8, No.5)
EARLY QUADDIE
1, 2, 3, 5/1, 4, 5, 9/1, 5, 10, 11/1, 2, 8, 12
$100 flexi for 39 per cent
BIG6
1, 5, 10, 11/1, 12/1, 2, 14/1, 2, 5/2, 5, 13, 14/2, 3
$100 flexi for 17.3 per cent
QUADZILLA WITH BRAD WATERS
LEG 1: RACE 6
The Coolmore Stud Stakes starts this week’s quaddie and it will be interesting who handles the straight best under race pressure on Saturday. It’s one thing to look good in a jumpout but we often see race pressure make the straight course an entirely different proposition. SEPTEMBER RUN (14) has impressed in her two straight wins so she’s a lock for the quaddie. FARNAN (1) is capable of bouncing back after weakening in Sydney first-up. WILD RULER (2) is emerging at the right time while SWATS THAT (12) goes into the race in peak form. They might be the four main chances.
1st leg: 1, 2, 12, 14
LEG 2: RACE 7
CHERRY TORTONI (1) and YOUNG WERTHER (5) look the class runners of the Victoria Derby but class alone doesn’t guarantee a win in the tough three-year-old contest over 2500m. Therefore, we’ll need to put in others we know will see out the trip with a kick at the finish. ALBARADO (2) was tough in the Caulfield Classic after sustaining a long run, which is a clear sign he’ll run the trip and HIT THE SHOT (6) was another to finish the Caulfield race strongly.
2nd leg: 1, 2, 5, 6
LEG 3: RACE 8
The Kennedy Cantala is easily the hardest leg of the Derby Day quaddie and I recommend going as wide as your budget will allow. I’ve got six runners in the quaddie but still wouldn’t be shocked to miss the third leg. MR QUICKIE (2) and YULONG PRINCE (5) are the top two picks but FIFTY STARS (1) might be ready to peak and his record at Flemington is excellent. OLMEDO (3) from the Chris Waller camp is the query runner in the race and worth putting in for insurance. BUFFALO RIVER (13) was honest in the Toorak Handicap and will be in this race for a long way and CHIEF IRONSIDE (14) is another that could improve on a solid effort last time out. I left him out but thrillseekers might want to add REYJKAVIK (17) at big odds for a potential blowout result.
3rd leg: 1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 14
LEG 4: RACE 9
The last leg of the Flemington quaddie will be run down the straight, which will suit the top pick DIAMOND EFFORT (3). She was scratched from the Manikato Stakes because of a firm track but she’s had no worries on good ground in easier races in the past. She was also a dominant winner at her only previous straight run. FIESTA (2) was terrific when winning after racing wide at Caulfield last time out and is unbeaten at the 1100m trip. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (4) was game when winning at Caulfield on Cup Day and has placed down the straight.
4th leg: 2, 3, 4
$100 flexi for 34.7 per cent
SKINNY QUADDIE
The skinny quaddie struggled last week but we’ll be out to bounce back on the firmer track at Flemington. Leaving the first leg at four runners with SEPTEMBER RUN, FARNAN, WILD RULER and SWATS THAT to run for us. Trimming the Derby back to the top two picks CHERRY TORTONI and YOUNG WERTHER. The third leg is tricky but decided to go with FIFTY STARS, MR QUICKIE and YULONG PRINCE. Might be brave and go DIAMOND EFFORT one-out in the last leg.
1st leg: 1, 2, 12, 14
2nd leg: 1, 5
3rd leg: 1, 2, 5
4th leg: 3
$100 flexi for 208 per cent
BRAD’S FOUR-PLAY $50 BETTING STRATEGY
FLEMINGTON
RACE 2
$50 win PERSONAL (1) at $3.10
Personal is well suited in the Wakeful Stakes after chasing Odeum home in the Thousand Guineas. She was strong at the end of the 1600m at Caulfield and the little bit of Galileo in her pedigree should ensure she runs out the 2000m of the Wakeful Stakes.
RACE 4
$50 win MYSTIC JOURNEY (1) at $4.40
Mystic Journey bounced back to her best form with a determined performance in the Stocks Stakes at The Valley after simply spending more time back in Tassie. She’s had another month at home and loves the Flemington 1600m course. Confident she’ll notch her second Group 1 win.
RACE 7
$50 win MR QUICKIE (2) at $5.50
Mr Quickie dropped back to handicap racing from weight-for-age contests with great success in the Toorak Handicap and he’s a great chance to complete the Toorak/Cantala double at Flemington. He easily won the Toorak Handicap but drops 1kg for that win. He’s drawn barrier 16 but will jump from 13. He’ll be charging home late.
RACE 9
$50 win DIAMOND EFFORT (3) at $3.60
Diamond Effort has turned in solid efforts in harder races than Saturday’s Group 3 contest at her last two starts and she’ll relish dropping back to mares’ grade in the last on Derby Day. She was a decisive winner of her only previous straight track run and has drawn the middle of the line, which will allow jockey Ben Melham to get her into the perfect position early.
Mr Quickie dropped back to handicap racing from weight-for-age contests with great success in the Toorak Handicap and he’s a great chance to complete the Toorak / Cantala double at Flemington. He easily won the Toorak Handicap but drops 1kg for that win. He’s drawn barrier 16 but will jump from 13. He’ll be charging home late.
THE OIL: FLEMINGTON
Brad Waters’ race-by-race analysis for Derby Day.
R1 (11.40AM): CARBINE CLUB STAKES (1600m)
Mostly fine weather should produce a good (4) track for Flemington from the outset. Sticking with the Caulfield Guineas form in the Carbine Club Stakes with AYSAR (3) on top. He drew a wide gate but fought on well to be beaten less than a length in the Guineas and should go well again. CROSSHAVEN (1) is consistent and wasn’t far away in the Guineas after he also came from a wide gate. ENDANGER (2) was unlucky at The Valley first-up but made up for that with his second-up success on Caulfield Cup day. EMBOLISM (4) comes out of a Benchmark 70 race but he was impressive winning that assignment and could measure up.
SUGGESTED BET: AYSAR to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Aysar $2.80 - $2.15.
R2 (12:20PM): WAKEFUL STAKES (2000m)
PERSONAL (1) was terrific in the Thousand Guineas, finishing off well for second behind Odeum and the filly’s pedigree suggests the 2000m won’t be a problem for her. She’s also very well in under the set weights conditions of the Wakeful Stakes. AGREEABLE (4) has been finishing off her races well this time in, racing like the 2000m will suit at Flemington. STARELLE (2) got a long way back in the leader-dominated Ethereal Stakes but the blinkers go back on for this and she should settle closer here. SUCCEED INDEED (3) is racing well and should be running on late.
SUGGESTED BET: PERSONAL to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Personal $4.80 - $3.20.
R3 (1PM): TAB STAKES (1200m)
The first of the straight races is always interesting at a Flemington meeting and this one is no exception with the 10-horse field engaged. OCTANE (9) has been around the mark in his last two runs at Caulfield but he was an impressive winner at his only down the straight three runs back. He should get a good trail and be hard to hold out late. CORUSCATE (1) was impressive again when scoring at Caulfield last time out and has a good record over the 1200m trip. KEMALPASA (4) raced on the speed and did a great job in the Gilgai Stakes and there’s no reason he won’t run well again. BLAZEJOWSKI (5) flies first-up and enjoys the straight course.
SUGGESTED BET: OCTANE to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Octane $3 - $2.80.
R4 (1:40PM): HOTHAM STAKES (2500m)
The last chance for most of these to make the Melbourne Cup field comes in the Hotham Stakes. SCHABAU (10) gets his chance to break through after three excellent runs this time in and he races well at Flemington. ASHRUN (1) did his best work late in the Geelong Cup at his Australian debut and will only improve on that run. ADMIRE ROBSON (11) ran on solidly in the Bart Cummings and a good track will aid his chances. SOUND (5) battled on OK in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup last Saturday but could improve on a firmer surface.
SUGGESTED BET: SCHABAU to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Admire Robson $7.50 - $5.50.
R5 (2:20PM): EMPIRE ROSE STAKES (1600m)
The weight-for-age format of the Empire Rose Stakes should favour the higher-rated runners, who would give away weight to their lower-rated rivals in a handicap. MYSTIC JOURNEY (1) was back to her best in the Stocks Stakes at The Valley last time out and has posted her two biggest wins – the Australian Guineas and All-Star Mile – over the Flemington 1600m course. ODEUM (12) had the run of the race but showed her class in the Thousand Guineas. She’ll run well again here. MISSILE MANTRA (8) is a $26 chance but is worth including on her last two runs. NETTOYER (2) backs up from the Cox Plate but is a Group 1 winner over the 1600m trip in Sydney and should be respected.
SUGGESTED BET: MYSTIC JOURNEY to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Odeum $3.80 - $3.70.
R6 (3PM): COOLMORE STUD STAKES (1200m)
SEPTEMBER RUN (14) has emerged as a Coolmore Stud Stakes contender after her two outstanding wins down the Flemington straight, which can sometimes bring horses undone. She loves the course and should go close again. FARNAN (1) was brilliant during his two-year-old season before fading after setting a cracking pace first-up. He’s impressed in trials since and could bounce back. WILD RULER (2) impressed racing on the speed before easily winning the Roman Consul Stakes in Sydney last time out. SWATS THAT (12) has been too classy for her opposition at her last two starts and has plenty of talent.
SUGGESTED BET: SEPTEMBER RUN to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: September Run $5.50 - $4.20.
R7 (3:45PM): VICTORIA DERBY (2500m)
Perhaps not the strongest Derby but it’s certainly an intriguing race with several strong chances. Going with CHERRY TORTONI (1) purely on the basis that he’s had the two runs at 2000m leading into the Derby, which should serve him well. YOUNG WERTHER (5) is an exciting gallop but missing the run last week gives a slight edge to the top pick, but there’s little between them. ALBARADO (2) sustained a long run to win at Caulfield last time out, showing he’s capable of running the 2500m. HIT THE SHOT (6) comes out of the same race as Albarado and did his best work late on that occasion.
SUGGESTED BET: CHERRY TORTONI to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Albarado $8 - $7.
R8 (4:30PM): KENNEDY CANTALA (1600m)
MR QUICKIE (2) was dominant when scoring a two-length win in the Toorak Handicap at Caulfield and he should get the speed on that he needs to overcome the tricky gate at Flemington. YULONG PRINCE (5) looms as a big danger after his strong fourth in the Epsom Handicap at Randwick. CHIEF IRONSIDE (14) wasn’t disgraced in the Toorak Handicap second-up and is drawn for a comfortable run. BUFFALO RIVER (13) raced on the speed and fought on gamely in the Toorak. He’s a lightweight chance.
SUGGESTED BET: MR QUICKIE to win with a saver on YULONG PRINCE.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Yulong Prince $16 - $12.
R9 (5:10PM): FURPHY SPRINT (1100m)
Another straight race to finish Derby Day at Flemington. DIAMOND EFFORT (3) was scratched from last Friday night’s Manikato Stakes at The Valley after the track was upgraded. She’ll get a firm track at Flemington but she won’t be up against Group 1 opposition at Flemington. She can win the last. FIESTA (1) was wide throughout but too strong at Caulfield last time, expect her to be thereabouts. FITEUSE (8) went down narrowly at Caulfield but will be better for the outing. The only little query with her is whether the inside will be the place to be down the straight. CALIFORNIA ZIMBOL (4) kept finding to score at Caulfield and has placed down the straight.
SUGGESTED BET: DIAMOND EFFORT to win.
TAB MARKET MOVER: Diamond Effort $4.60 - $3.70.
QUINNY’S SNAPSHOT
BEST BET
YOUNG WERTHER (Flemington, Race 7, No.5)
VALUE BET
SIERRA SUE (Rosehill, Race 8, No.16)
LAY OF THE WEEK
FARNAN (Flemington, Race 6, No.1)
FLEMINGTON
RACE 7: VICTORIA DERBY
Young Werther looks a progressive staying type who is the one to beat in Saturday’s Victoria Derby. He won well on debut at Geelong and caught the eye with a fast-finishing second to Khoekhoe in the Super Impose at Flemington. Young Werther was scratched from last Saturday’s Vase at The Valley because trainer Danny O’Brien didn’t want to give his galloper a tough run on a wet track a week out from the Derby.
On Tuesday one TAB punter parted with $15,000 at $3.50 on Young Werther and after getting as short as $3, he is now a $3.20 market leader. Last Saturday one punter had $10,000 on a double at $10.12 on the final race winner La Mexicana into Young Werther for the Derby.
In Young Werther’s absence, Cherry Tortoni went on to win the Vase and shapes as the major danger again. Cherry Tortoni has long been regarded as the one to beat in this race and was posted a pre-post favourite at $8.
The runner at big odds who could surprise is Johnny Get Angry. Despite the fact he is still eligible to compete in maiden races, he has been a model of consistency in his six starts and gives the impression he will run a strong 2500m. He worked home well into third in the Vase and the $6.55 the place holds appeal. Hit The Shot worked home well at Caulfield last start behind Albarado and both those runners warrant respect.
SUGGESTED BET: Back YOUNG WERTHER the win and take a quinella with CHERRY TORTONI.
RACE 4: HOTHAM STAKES
Always a terrific race and a last-minute option for runners to earn a start in the Melbourne Cup. Ashrun ran a brave fourth in the Geelong Cup at his first Australian start after showing good form in Europe, including winning the Prix De Reux at Group 2 level at Deauville for Melbourne Cup-winning trainer Andreas Wohler. Ashrun is $34 to win the Melbourne Cup, which could be worth a bet if you fancy him here.
Schabau has been around the mark this campaign and shapes as a leading chance. There has been early money for Admire Robson, who has been backed from $10 into $7. The former Japanese galloper will go into the race fourth-up and should be ready to fire. He was well backed last start in the Bart Cummings behind Persan and didn’t have much luck in the run.
SUGGESTED BET: ASHRUN the win.
RACE 6: COOLMORE STUD STAKES
Farnan comes into the race as a $4.50 favourite. He has been the talk of the spring for all the wrong reasons. Before he resumed he was heavily backed in pre-post markets for the Golden Rose, with co-trainer Gai Waterhouse boldly declaring that he wouldn’t be beaten this campaign. He resumed from a spell running fifth in the Run To The Rose as a $2.40 favourite and has not been seen since. He recently won a trial at Gosford and if he can produce his best two-year-old form that saw him win the Golden Slipper, he should be in the hunt.
He will be looking to buck a recent trend with six of the past seven Golden Slipper winners never having won another race. Filly September Run has made huge improvements at her last two starts and relishes the Flemington straight. While there are question marks over some of the runners at the top of the market, she is proven this campaign and looks a good each-way play. Anders is looking to bounce back after finishing last in the three-horse Blue Sapphire Stakes.
SUGGESTED BET: SEPTEMBER RUN each-way.
ROSEHILL GARDENS
RACE 8: GOLDEN EAGLE
An interesting edition of the Golden Eagle with Funstar heading the market at $5. She was terrific last start when runner-up to Probabeel in the Epsom but the wide draw is a concern.
Alligator Blood is a head-scratcher, he has been beaten in both runs back this campaign but could improve stepping up to 1500m and is now a backable quote.
The Bob Peters duo of Superstorm and Windstorm must be respected. Windstorm had won two in a row before failing to get into the finish in the Moonga Stakes last start while Superstorm comes into the race after placing in the Group 1 Toorak Handicap.
The runner who looks a terrific place bet is Sierra Sue. She is $14 the win and $4.20 the place and if you were going to spend $5 backing her, I would recommend $1 the win and $4 the place. She is a classy mare who has won five of her seven starts and comes into this on the back of wins at Sale and Flemington. She should get an economical run from gate one and has world-class hoop Nash Rawiller in the saddle.
The Brad Widdup-trained Icebath won well last Saturday and is another at long odds with claims.
SUGGESTED BET: SIERRA SUE the place.