Caulfield Cup Day tips: Best bets, analysis, quadrella, betting strategy
Form analyst Michael Manley chimes in with his best bets, runs the rule over the big Caulfield Cup players, then throws in his best two quaddies, plus provides four $50 betting strategies to make your day a profitable one.
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Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley believes a perfect old-school preparation through the Turnbull Stakes for Vow And Declare could produce the chocolates in the Caulfield Cup.
Manley says Vow And Declare’s fourth placing in that race has him primed and from barrier nine should be able to take up a prominent position on Saturday.
Find out what else he likes in the Cup and his other betting options on the big day.
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CAULFIELD CUP DAY
TRACK: Good 4
RAIL: True
WEATHER: 16C showers
BEST BET
HILO (R3, No.3 $3.60)
He’ll find this easier than last start sixth in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. He’s drawn to get a great run.
NEXT BEST
MIAMI BOUND (R4, No.9 $2.70)
Outstanding three-year-old filly who is crying out for 2000m. Should prove too good for the males..
MISS LEONIDAS (R7, No.4 $3.70)
Flying mare who will love barrier one. She’s going to take catching.
VALUE BET
DESERT LORD (R8, No.9 $5)
He wasn’t disgraced in the Epsom after slashing third behind two subsequent Group 1 winners at Randwick over 1400m before that.
THE TRAINER
SIMON ZAHRA
SO YOU SWING (R1, No.8 $7)
“She’s racing really well. She’s drawn nicely and she’ll get her chance to win a Saturday race.”
DEBT’N’DEFICIT (R2, No.11 $31)
“She’s being thrown in the deep end. She’s on a quick back. She’ll need luck from her draw.”
BRILLIANT VENTURE (R4, No.5 $26)
“I can’t understand why he’s the outsider. He’s going really well and hasn’t had much luck at his past two runs. I can see him rolling forward and running a big race.”
CRYSTAL DREAMER (R7, No.1 $9)
“He’s nice and fresh. There should be a nice amount of speed which will suit him. He’s a genuine horse who loves Caulfield.”
ARISTIA (R10, No.2 $16)
“I think she’s going particularly well. I’m hoping she can settle close enough as she will close hard.”
SHEEZDASHING (R10, No.15 $41)
“Her best is over more ground but she’ll run a bit of a race fresh.”
THE QUADDIE
LEG 1
1,4,10
LEG 2
2,4,9
LEG 3
1,3,6,7,11,12,13,14,16,18
LEG 4
1,7,8,11
$100 flexi for 27.77%
CAULFIELD CUP BEST
VOW AND DECLARE $9
Put in an old fashioned Caulfield Cup trial with his fourth in the Turnbull Stakes which could be the best run of his career. He drops two kilograms and from barrier nine Craig Williams has the opportunity to plot his own course from the barrier.
MER DE GLACE $8
Japanese stayer who has won his past five starts including his last three at Group 3 level running extraordinary times. He’s drawn out but he gets back anyway.
THE CHOSEN ONE $16
Kiwi stayer who won the Herbert Power Stakes last week with something in hand coming from off the speed. His trainer Murray Baker won this race four years ago. No surprise to see him do so again with this son of Savabeel.
WOLFE $21
Japanese bred stayer who won his way into the Caulfield Cup with his tough win in the Coongy handicap. He’ll carry only 50kgs and from barrier five he’s going to get a great run.
FINCHE $6
Drawn out but Caulfield Cup winners can come from anywhere. Great run when second in the Turnbull Stakes last start. He carries the Chris Waller polish and no surprise to see him run out an easy winner.
MR QUICKIE $8.50
Put in a rare disappointing run in the Turnbull Stakes which followed a cracking first-up run when third in the Makybe Diva Stakes. He defeated Vow And Declare to win the Queensland Derby two starts ago.
BEST ROUGHIE
GOLD MOUNT $23
Much travelled galloper who was a Group 1 placegetter in Hong Kong before heading to England where he has run well in staying races. From barrier four he should get a good run.
THE SPEED
With several well fancied candidates drawn out there’s likely to be a rush for the lead. FINCHE from out wide, ANGEL OF TRUTH and WOLFE will all push forward. QAFILA will also push forward. VOW AND DECLARE is likely to settle mid-field.
HISTORY
Turnbull Stakes is usually the best guide for this race with five out of the last 10 winners having contested that race before they won the Caulfield Cup. The last five winners though have all come from different races.
THE TIPS
1.VOW AND DECLARE
2.MER DE GLACE
3.THE CHOSEN ONE
4.WOLFE
MICHAEL MANLEY’S $50 FOURPLAY
RACE 3 GOTHIC STAKES (1400M)
$50 win HILO at $3.70
HILO put together two nice wins before last start sixth in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude where he drifted back too far from his wide draw. This is easier and should be on the speed from barrier four.
RACE 4 LADBROKES CLASSIC (2000M)
$50 win MIAMI BOUND at $2.80
MIAMI BOUND will be better suited over 2000m than her last start third in the Edward Manifold Stakes over 1600m at Flemington where she pushed forward in the early stages. She looked likely to win but was swamped in the closing stages.
RACE 8 MOONGA STAKES (1400M)
$25 each-way DESERT LORD at $5/$1.85
Two starts ago he DESERT LORD finished third behind subsequent Group 1 winners Kolding and Fierce Impact at Randwick over this distance before mid-field in the Epsom. He’s got a sound record over 1400m.
RACE 9 CAULFIELD CUP (2400M)
$10 each-way VOW AND DECLARE at $9/$3.10
$30 Box exacta of 3,6,14,16 and 18 with a $1 unit
VOW AND DECLARE looks a sound each-way bet in the Caulfield Cup after his slashing fourth in the Turnbull Stakes. Box him in an exacta with MER DE GLACE, THE CHOSEN ONE, FINCHE and WOLFE.
BEST TIPS
THE EARLY OIL: GODOLPHIN COLT ON WARPATH
QUINNY’S TIPS: RAIDER UP FOR CUP CHALLENGE
SUPERCOACH FORM GUIDE: BEWARE WARNING SIGNS
WEEKEND BEST BETS: FAST LANE TO VICTORY
QUADDIE UP CLOSE AND PERSONAL
With Michael Manley
RACE 7
MISS LEONIDAS (4) was just beaten by Everest aspirant Nature Strip last start in the Group One Moir Stakes which looks a great form reference. From barrier one she’ll take catching. This looks one of the easier legs. Add three-year-old colts I AM IMMORTAL (7) and MCLAREN (10).
FIRST LEG: 4,7,10
RACE 8
Another leg which might be a shorter one. There looks to be three great chances. DESERT LORD (9) who loves 1400m and boasts excellent Sydney form. Godolphin’s ROYAL MEETING (2) is a Group 1 winner who is undefeated in two starts. STREETS OF AVALON (4) is a 1400m specialist.
SECOND LEG: 2,4,9
RACE 9
It’s the Caulfield Cup so it’s a load up leg. Take ten horses but that mightn’t even be enough as the field is worth contemplation. Take HARTNELL (1), MER DE GLACE (3), FINCHE (6), GOLD MOUNT (7), CONSTANINOPLE (11), MR QUICKIE (12), CROWN PROSECUTOR (13), VOW AND DECLARE (14), THE CHOSEN ONE (16) and WOLFE (18).
THIRD LEG: 1,3,6,7,11,12,13,14,16,18
RACE 10
Another tough leg. POHUTUKAWA (7) is building to a win. Her form from the Queensland winter intertwines with INVINCIBELLA (1) and BACCARAT BABY (8). ANGELIC RULER (11) deserves a change of luck.
FOURTH LEG: 1,7,8
FIRST LEG: 4,7,10
SECOND LEG: 2,4,9
THIRD LEG: 1,3,6,7,11,12,13,14,16,18
FOURTH LEG: 1,7,8,11
$50 flexi for 13.88%
SKINNY QUADDIE
Speed machine MISS LEONIDAS (4) will prove hard to catch so take her one out in the first leg. In the second leg take ROYAL MEETING (2) and DESERT LORD (9). In the third leg the Caulfield Cup, reduce it to five numbers. In The final leg come home with INVINCIBELLA (1), POHUTUKAWA (7) and BACCARAT BABY (8).
FIRST LEG: 4
SECOND LEG: 2,9
THIRD LEG: 3,12,14,16,18
FOURTH LEG: 1,7,8
$25 Flexi for 83.33%