Nick Quinn: Expert tips and betting analysis for feature races at Caulfield and Randwick
Punting guru Nick Quinn is wary of the Japanese raider Mer De Glace in the Caulfield Cup, while Sunlight shapes as the value runner in The Everest.
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Caulfield Cup: Draw brings favs back to pack
The Everest: Bookies wary of Waller’s new Queen
TAB form expert Nick Quinn casts his eye over the feature races at Caulfield and Randwick on Saturday.
QUINNY’S BEST PLAYS
BEST BET: Brutal (Randwick, R6, No.1)
VALUE BET: Sunlight (Randwick, R7, No.9)
LAY OF THE DAY: Happy Clapper (Randwick, R8, No.1)
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CAULFIELD
RACE 6: ETHEREAL STAKES (2000m)
An even edition of the Ethereal Stakes with early money for the second elect Vegas Jewel who has been backed form $5.50 into $4.80. The unbeaten filly won well on debut at Echuca for stepping up in grade to salute at Moonee Valley.
The drifting favourite is Celestial Falls who heads the market at $4 after opening $3.60. Celestial Falls won impressively at Flemington last start after being heavily backed and looks the one to beat. At longer odds Snapdancer is worth keeping safe, I anticipate she’ll be even better suited over more ground.
SUGGESTED BET: CELESTIAL FALLS the win.
RACE 9: CAULFIELD CUP (2400m)
An intriguing edition of the Caulfield Cup, with strong support for Finche in the past fortnight. Finche was fourth in last year’s Melbourne Cup and appears to have taken the next step this spring.
Finche won the Kingston Town at Randwick on September 21 before running an eye catching second to Kings Will Dream in the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington. He looks primed to run a big race and I think he’ll stay around $5.
The X-factor in the race is the Japanese runner Mer De Glace. The Japanese runner comes into the race having won his past five starts, including his last three at Group level. He looks the ideal Caulfield Cup prospect and could become the first Japanese-trained horse to win the Melbourne Cup since Delta Blues in 2006.
The best longshot is Rostropovich. On face value he was underwhelming last start in the Turnbull Stakes, but a gear change should lead to significant improvement. He had a good spring running fifth in both the Cox Plate behind Winx and in the Melbourne Cup.
At about $26, he looks over the odds.
One punter fancies Vow And Declare with a bet of $2000 at $11 placed on Tuesday.
SUGGESTED BET: MER DE GLACE each-way.
LATEST BETTING: TAB FIXED ODDS
RANDWICK
RACE 7: THE EVEREST (1200m)
Redzel is aiming to win it for a third straight win and each time he’s been the benefactor of slow tempos and wet tracks, but this year the speed will be on with addition of Nature Strip.
The two-time champion opened at $6 when markers were posted and got out to as much as $15 with one bet of $10,000 at $11 placed on September 7.
Santa Ana Lane caught the eye in the Gilgai Stakes and steps up to 1200 metres where he is a seven time winner. Santa Ana Lane has been a darling for punters, unless you like backing him when favourite. The last four times he has started favourite he has been beaten, but he looks ideally placed to atone and claim the Everest.
At big odds, the two knockout chances are Sunlight and Nature Strip.
Connections finally got the tactics right with Nature Strip last start in the Group 1 Moir Stakes at Moonee Valley and if he is allowed to lead along in front, he will be hard to catch.
He has won over 1200 metres and looks appealing at $26 and $6.50 the place.
Sunlight has always snuck under the radar, but she did beat Santa Ana Lane last start and has won seven times form 10 attempts over 1200 metres. She shouldn’t be $14.
SUGGESTED BET: SANTA ANA LANE the win.