Best bets, race-by-race analysis for Sandown, Morphettville programs

Herald Sun form expert Michael Manley and TAB’s Nick Quinn have joined the Buffalo stampede with their best bet in this week’s comprehensive form guide to Sandown and Morphettville. BEST, BETS, RACE-BY-RACE ANALYSIS

Adelaide comes alive this weekend with two Group 1s for the first official weekend of the winter racing. See who TAB tipping guru Nick Quinn and Herald Sun form analyst Michael Manley are backing.

Herald Sun racing editor Leo Schlink has also joined the charge with his take on what stands out at Sandown.

MICHAEL MANLEY’S BEST BET

BUFFALO RIVER (R9, No. 13)

VALUE BET

OASIS GIRL (R3, No. 4)

EARLY QUADDIE

4,6/1,2,4,6,7/1,4,8,9,11/1,3,4,5,6

$100 flexi for 40%

BIG6

1,4/1,4,6/4,10,12,14/1,3,5,8/5,9/13,14

$100 flexi for 26.04%

QUADDIE

Race 6: 4,10,12,14

Race 7: 1,3,5,8

Race 8: 5,6,9,12

Race 9: 13,14

$100 flexi for 78.12%

MORE TIPS

WEEKEND BEST BETS: HIGHTAIL IT TO THE BOOKIES

DAVO’S TIPS: WALK ON THE WILD SIDE

SANDOWN TIPS WITH LEO SCHLINK

BEST BET

MASKED CRUSADER (Race 7, No. 8)

Fast-rising star facing his best test yet after two impressive wins. Untested in rain-affected conditions in a race, but has won a trial in heavy going.

NEXT BEST

DUKE OF PLUMPTON (Race 2, No. 6)

Kiwi who caught the eye with slashing Echuca win for new stable. Revels in rain-affected conditions with four wins from eight attempts.

LUNAKORN (Race 3, No. 3)

Chasing fourth consecutive win. Untried on heavy going, but has won in soft 5 conditions. The one to beat.

VALUE BET

DIALA (Race 1, No. 1)

Proven wet-tracker suited by the drop in grade.

THE TRAINER

MATTHEW WILLIAMS (Warrnambool)

BREAK AND ENTER (Race 2, No. 3)

“He’ll want the run. The Casterton Cup and Apsley Cup are his two goals. If he runs top six at Sandown, we’d be happy.”

HARBOUR VIEWS (Race 9, No. 14)

“The Heavy 10 track is a query but he’s in great order. He’ll benefit from the run. It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out in the conditions late in the day.”

QUADZILLA WITH MICHAEL MANELY

LEG 1: RACE 6 HANDICAP (2100M)

This looks one of the tougher legs so go wider if you want. It may not be a big paying Quaddie so happy to take a quartet of horses. STARCASTER (14) resumed from a spell with an impressive win at Geelong against a strong field. SALSAMOR (4) failed in the Easter Cup when he backed up a week after winning at Caulfield. That was a high pressure race. CHAROSSA (12) loves the heavy. GUNDOWN (10) won the Moe Cup last spring third-up on a heavy track.

1st Leg: 4,10,12,14

LEG 2: RACE 7 HANDICAP (1200M, 3YO)

Another open race but again we’ll stick with four horses. MASKED CRUSADER (8) could be a star but he’s an unknown factor on a heavy track. ANCESTRY (1) is in great form and he’ll lead and take catching again as he attempts to stretch his winning sequence to four. OPEN MINDED (5) is undefeated in three starts and he likes it heavy. Damien Oliver rides FINAL MAN (3) who is aiming for a hat-trick of wins.

2nd Leg: 1,3,5,8

LEG 3: RACE 8 BENCHMARK 84 (1200M)

Again we’ll take a quartet of horses. MYSTERY LOVE (5) has a touch of class and a great strike rate. She will also have the services of Oliver. ANJANA (6) loves it heavy and blinkers go on first time. BARTHELONA (9) has run home strongly for placings both starts this time in. GODODDIN (12) has a lot of ability and jumped-out well recently.

3rd Leg: 5,6,9,12

LEG 4: RACE 9 HANDICAP (1400M)

This is the skinny leg. Take the two rising stars in BUFFALO RIVER (13) and HARBOUR VIEWS (14). Buffalo River has a fitness edge and will push forward. If he’s susceptible due to too much pressure Harbour Views will be the one to run him down.

1st Leg: 4,10,12,14

2nd Leg: 1,3,5,8

3rd Leg: 5,6,9,12

4th Leg: 9 13,14

$100 flexi for 78.12%

SKINNY QUADDIE

Happy to take the same quartet in the first leg as the wider Quaddie. Narrow the second leg to OPEN MINDED (5) and MASKED CRUSADER (8). In the third Leg stay with MYSTERY LOVE (5), ANJANA (6) and BARTHELONA (9). In the final leg take BUFFALOR RIVER (13) one out.

1st Leg: 4,10,12,14

2nd Leg: 5,8

3rd Leg: 5,6,9

4th Leg: 13

$25 flexi for 104.16%

Masked Crusader is a must for both quaddies.

MICHAEL MANLEY’S FOUR $50 BETS

RACE 1: HANDICAP (2yo, fillies 1200m)

$50 WIN ROSE OF SEBRING (3) at $2.30

Rose Of Sebring revelled in the heavy going to win her second start at Ballarat by five and a half lengths running away from her rivals. She’s going to love the Heavy conditions. Her sire Sebring has a great record as a sire of wet trackers.

RACE 2: BENCHMARK 78 (1600m)

$50 win DUKE OF PLUMPTON (6) at $2

Ex Kiwi who made an outstanding debut for Patrick Payne when he came from well back to win his Victorian debut at Echuca. He loves a heavy track and he also the step out to 1600m from 1400m will suit even better.

RACE 5: HONOURING VICTORIA POLICE HANDICAP (3yo, 2100m)

$50 win VEGAS KNIGHT (4) at $4

He was trapped wide throughout in the Easter Cup but he stuck on gamely. Back to his own age group and he looks well placed. He has the benefit of having Craig Williams to ride.

RACE 9: HANDICAP (1400m)

$50 win BUFFALO RIVER (13) at $2.10

Exciting prospect who demolished his rivals when he led throughout to win first-up at Caulfield on a heavy track. He’s had one start here for an easy win.

Stream over 50 sports on-demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >

RACE 1: 11.55am 2YO FILLIES HANDICAP (1200m)

ROSE OF SEBRING (3) revelled in the heavy conditions to win her second start running away from her rivals by five lengths on a Heavy 10 track at Ballarat over 1200m after running on well for third over 1300m at Sandown Hillside at her debut. She takes on smart fillies but she’s the proven performer in the conditions. Both DIALA (1) and WYLD SAVANNA (7) back up after running at Flemington last week over 1400m in a strong race. Diala led throughout to win two starts ago at Caulfield on a soft track and she weakened last week after trying the same tactics. Wild S ran into trouble – finished off nicely CORNUCOPIA (5) hasn’t had a lot of luck in her two starts. She found a bit of trouble in the The Showdown. She’s bred to love the conditions as is WEGOBAM (6) who ran on well at her debut for second at Ballarat.

SUGGESTED BET: ROSE OF SEBRING THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3 – Rose Of Sebring $2.90-$2.30 ($310 @ $2.80, $793 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.60, $300 @ $2.40)

7 – Wyld Savanna $6.50-$5.50

Rose Of Sebring will appreciate the soft conditions.

RACE 2: 12.30pm BENCHMARK 78 (1400m)

Former Kiwi DUKE OF PLUMPTON (6) had little trouble accounting for a useful horse in Orienzel at his Australian debut at Echuca on a soft track over 1400m. He sat well back and came with a well timed sprint. At his last appearance on a Heavy 10 track he won by almost five lengths at Trentham. SHOT OF IRISH (4) should be close to a win. Battled on well for second-up fifth behind Jumbo Ozaki over 1400m at Caulfield last start where he was trapped wide. He’s won three from five on heavy surfaces and he’s likely to lead here. THE BALD EAGLE (11) finished tenth in that race but found trouble. He’s a heavy track winner. MIDAS PRINCE (5) is probably the best horse in the race but is a query in the going. NO MONEY NO HONEY (14) has had three heavy track starts for a second, third and a fourth.

SUGGESTED BET: DUKE OF PLUMPTON THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 6 – Duke Of Plumpton $3.10-$2.60 ($750 @ $3.10, $500 @ $3.10, $400 @ $2.70)

Deductions: Sonaree 3c Win 2c Place

RACE 3: 1.05pm MRC FOUNDATION HANDICAP (Benchmark 78, 1400m)

OASIS GIRL (4) led throughout to win on a heavy track at Caulfield two starts ago over 1400m. She worked forward and held on nicely in strong race at Flemington last week where it was busy early and the race played to swoopers. LUNAKORN (3) is an exciting prospect. She has run on strongly to win her three starts this time in. She won here two starts ago and then last start again ran over the top of her rivals over 1300m at Bendigo. Being by Puissance De Lune the step up to 1400m should suit even better. She’s run second on a heavy track in a trial. BROADWAYANDFOURTH (1) is having her first start over 1400m but should suit. She has run on well at both of her starts this time in at Caulfield over 1100m. KNOWLES (6) is building to a win and 1400m should suit. She has run on well at her past two starts for a second at Caulfield and then a fourth there. Can’t fault MERITED’s (7) form with two starts for two wins. FLORENT (2) drops back in distance after surprise win at Caulfield last start. TOP PINS (5) made it three wins from five starts when she won her Victorian debut at Pakenham last start.

SUGGESTED BET: OASIS GIRL EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 3 – Lunakorn $2.60-$2.40

RACE 4: 1.45PM BENCHMARK 78 (1200m, mares)

TOO GOOD TOO HARD (1) is the class act of this race. She ran home strongly to win at this class last start at Caulfield defeating Sam’s Image. Last spring she was competitive against Tofane. She hasn’t raced on a heavy track but has trialled well in those conditions. Adelaide visitor KENYAN WONDER (4) wasn’t disgraced at Group 3 level behind Gytrash at her last start. Huge win by WRITTEN GEM (8) who came from a mile back and swooped home to win at Geelong last start. She’s unknown in the heavy. Runner-up in that race was the honest ATLANTICA (11) who will be prominent in this. RAKTOFF (9) has won two from three on heavy tracks. ANNARBOR (2) races well fresh and loves the heavy.

SUGGESTED BET: TOO GOOD TOO HARD THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: No bets or movements of note

Expect an improved performance from Vegas Knight.

RACE 5: 2.25pm HONOURING VICTORIA POLICE HANDICAP (2100m)

Not much went right for VEGAS KNIGHT (4) in the Easter Cup as he was trapped wide throughout when he finished sixth. He ran 14 metres further than the winner Inverloch and 13 metres further than So Si Bon who finished two and a half lengths from. Two starts ago he finished third on a heavy vtrack against his age group, which is back to, behind The Lifeline on a heavy track over 1600m at Caulfield. TOORADIN (6) went forward in that race and battled on well for fourth. POWER SCHEME (1) gave away a huge start in Sydney last start when he ran on for sixth behind Kinane. KUSARI (3) is racing well with wins at his last two starts. He fought hard to win at Cranbourne last start. CRAFTSMANSHIP (5) finished off nicely for sixth at Flemington last Saturday over 1700m and is crying out for this trip. He can do a lot wrong but has the talent to win this. THE MOCKINGBIRD (10) bolted in at Geelong last start over 1700m for well deserved maiden win.

SUGGESTED BET: VEGAS KNIGHT EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 1 – Power Scheme $7-$6

RACE 6: 3.05pm HANDICAP (2100m)

STARCASTER (14) resumed from a spell with an impressive win in a good field at Geelong over 1700m. He’s a horse who looks to have a lot of upside. He’s an unknown on a heavy track. CHAROSSA (12) improves lengths on heavy tracks where he has had five starts for two wins and two seconds. He was disappointing last start in Adelaide but before that he finished second on a heavy track at Caulfield.

SALSAMOR (4) put four wins together including a heavy track one at Caulfield over 2000m before he backed up a week after that when he failed in the Easter Cup a race where the pressure went on a long way from home. GUNDOWN (10) is fitter for two useful runs back from a spell. Third-up last preparation he won the Moe Cup on a Heavy track.

SENTIMENTALIST (13) made it two wins in a row at Caulfield last start.

THINK WE’RE DUE (15) is a tough horse racing well. Fought on well in that race for third.

RISING RED (3) ran on well for fourth at Caulfield where he was beaten less than a length behind Kentucky Breeze over 1600m. Step up to 2100m will suit. He’s had one start in the heavy for a win at Donald. Import SURREY THUNDER (11) ran on well at his Australian debut.

SUGGESTED BET: STARCASTER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 4 – Salsamor $10-$8.50

14 – Starcaster $5-$4.60

Masked Crusader was huge at Bendigo once he was able to get clear.

RACE 7: 3.45pm SALUTE FRONTLINE WORKERS HANDICAP (3yo 1200m)

MASKED CRUSADER (8) looks to have a stack of potential. Looked in trouble at Bendigo last start as he was held up for a run but when he got into the clear he charged home to win running the fastest last 400m and 200m for the meeting. He is a heavy track trial winner.

OPEN MINDED (5) is undefeated in three starts including two heavy track wins. At his last start he sat fourth and defeated older horses in a Benchmark 70 this track and distance last start. Boom sprinter

the speedy ANCESTRY (1) is in great form. He completed a hat-trick when he led throughout to win at Caulfield on a heavy track over 1100m. He rises 3.5 kilos though and steps out to 1200m.

FINAL MAN (3) is another horse with potential. He followed a win over 1200m on a Heavy 9 by 3.25 lengths at Pakenham with an all the way win at this track and distance over ALBURQ (2). LOMBARDS (12) won his debut at Bendigo by four lengths. THE ASTROLOGIST (6) put together back to back wins before being beaten by Rubisaki at his last start, last winter. I AM ELOQUENT (4) is two from two on heavy tracks.

SUGGESTED BET: MASKED CRUSADER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 5 – Open Minded $15-$13 ($250 e/w @ $14/$3.90)

8 – Masked Crusader $2.80-$2.70 ($300 @ $2.70)

RACE 8: 4.25pm BENCHMARK 84 (mares, 1200m)

MYSTERY LOVE (5) is a quality mare who took her record to four wins and a third from six starts with a first-up win at Caulfield three weeks ago. BARTHELONA (9) has run on well for placings at Bendigo and at Caulfield this campaign. He handles heavy tracks and two kilos claim from Lachlan King brings him to 55 kilos. ANJANA (6) finished fourth behind her with her best work late in the race. She; s had one start on a heavy track for a six length win at Ballarat. She’s changed stables and is now with Henry Dwyer. Also blinkers go on for the first time on GODDODIN (12) failed in Adelaide last start but she’s better than that as her win at Caulfield before that demonstrates. She’s jumped out well at Flemington recently. SAM’S IMAGE (17) will lead and give a big sight. RUBAN BLEU (14) has had one start on a heavy track for a win.

SUGGESTED BET: MYSTERY LOVE EACH-WAY

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 5 – Mystery Love $4.20-$3.80 ($500 @ $4.20)

9 – Barthelona $16-$10

Buffalo River proves too strong in last year’s Silver Bowl Series Final at Flemington.

RACE 9: 4.55pm HANDICAP (1400m)

Two budding stars in imports BUFFALO RIVER (13) and HARBOUR VIEWS (14) face off and they look to have the race to themselves. Buffalo River resumed from a spell at Caulfield a month ago with an all the way by 2.5 lengths on a heavy track. He’s also had one start at this track for a 3.25 lengths win over 1400m last June. He’ll race forward from barrier one and will take catching. Harbour Views won his first five starts before an unlucky second at his last run in the Country Final at Flemington behind Star Missile. He’ll be surging home. VASSILATOR (12) resumed with a fast finishing second at Caulfield behind Order Of Command over 1200m. SIRCONNI (8) fought on strongly for third behind Bam’s On Fire in the Victoria Handicap. He’s had one start on a heavy track for a fourth at Randwick. ACHERNAR STAR (2) boasts a good second-up record.

SUGGESTED BET: BUFFALO RIVER THE WIN

TAB MARKET MOVERS: 13 – Buffalo River $2.30-$2.20 ($1000 @ $2.30, $500 @ $2.25 TWICE)

14 – Harbour Views $5.50-$4.20 ($400 @ $5.50, $500 @ $4.40)

QUINNY’S TAKE

Herald Sun’s racing tipster the TAB’s Nick Quinn had a day out at Sale tipping seven consecutive winners during the week.

Now he’s bringing his rich form to where it really counts, Saturday racing.

Check out what Quinny likes below for the big Morphettville program and, of course, Sandown.

At Sale on Tuesday, Quinny’s selection in the first race Night Of Delight finished third beaten by less than a length.

He then tipped correctly from the second race Bless Her ($2.70 fav), Does It ($1.65 fav), Carlton Rose ($1.90 fav), High Done ($2.20 fav), Quantum Mechanic ($8.50), Lake’s Folly ($2.10 fav) and the last race winner Moi Choux ($12).

BEST BET

BUFFALO RIVER (Sandown Race 9, No. 13)

VALUE BET

KUSARI (Sandown Race 4, No. 3)

LAY OF THE WEEK

VEGAS KNIGHT (Sandown Race 5, No. 4)

Stream over 50 sports on-demand with KAYO SPORTS on your TV, computer, mobile or tablet. Just $25/month, no lock-in contract. Get your 14-day free trial and start streaming instantly >

Affair To Remember should be right in the mix at Morphettville.

SANDOWN

RACE 9

A good chance here for punters to back Buffalo River as he races his way through the grades.

He resumed from a spell with an effortless victory at Caulfield and stays at 1400m where he is already a four-time winner.

He has drawn barrier one and Damien Oliver sticks with him, at around the $2.40 mark he looks a good way for punters to end the day.

The early money has come for the second elect and logical danger Harbour Views who has firmed from $5.50 into $4.40.

The Matthew Williams trained galloper won his first five starts before having no luck at Flemington when runner-up last spring carnival.
Look for him to be hitting the line hard to Saturday and stick with him going forward.

SUGGESTED BET: BUFFALO RIVER TO WIN.

MORPHETTVILLE

RACE 7: AUSTRALASIAN OAKS

An open edition of the Australian Oaks with Affair To Remember heading the market at $5.50 after savaging the line at Caulfield last start.

Her win at Sandown the start before that was strong and she is drawn to get a soft run and show her strong turn of foot at the end of the race and shapes as the runner to beat.

Mark Kavanagh-trained Vegas Jewel can be forgiven for finishing down the track last start in a race where many of the backmarkers simply never got into the race.
She was heavily backed on that occasion and can fire third up.

One punter will be $21,600 richer if Vegas Jewel can salute. On Tuesday, they parted with $1000 on a double taking Ginger Micky in Race 8 at Albion Park, which saluted, into Vegas Jewel for the Oaks.

Moonlight Maid holds appeal at around the $14 quote.

She was well backed at Caulfield last start when running fifth and will appreciate the extra ground.

She steps up to 2000m where she ran second in the Group 2 Vase at the Valley last spring.

She placed in the Group 1 VRC Oaks and looks a good each-way play.

Chris Waller’s Betcha Flying shot into contention with a gutsy win at Flemington last Saturday and comes into this race on the seven day back up.

SUGGESTED BET: AFFAIR TO REMEMBER EACH-WAY.

Sunlight takes out the Gilgai Stakes on Turnbull Stakes Day at Flemington last year.

RACE 8: ROBERT SANGSTER CLASSIC

The money has come for classy mare Sunlight who has been backed from $3.50 into $2.90 since the barrier draw, including bets of $3000 at $3.20 and $1000 at $3.

The Tony and Calvin McEvoy trained mare resumed from a spell with a solid second behind Goodwood favourite Gytrash over 1100m in the Furphy R N Irwin Stakes.

She steps up to 1200m where she has an excellent record of seven wins and two placings from 11 attempts including victories in feature Group 1 races the Coolmore stud Stakes, Newmarket Handicap and William Reid Stakes.

The opportunity to triple your money on her looks appealing.

The intriguing runner is tough two year-old Away Game.

In her seven start career she has already raced at Sandown, Doomben, Gold Coast, Randwick twice, Caulfield, Rosehill and now heads to Morphettville.

She was terrific winning the Group 2 Percy Sykes last start and again warrants respect.

The runner who appears over the odds is the ultra-consistent Humma Humma.

She hit the line strongly behind William Thomas at Caulfield last start when returning from a freshen-up and has finished in the money an impressive 12 times from 21 career starts.

She looks over the odds at $17 and is a good place bet at $4.40.

If I was to spend $20 on this race I would have $10 the win on Sunlight, $3 each-way on Away game and $4 the place on Humma Humma.

That approach should return a profit.

SUGGESTED BET: SUNLIGHT THE WIN.