Why Collingwood’s Tim Membrey chase shows how tight the AFL market is for key forwards
It has never been harder to prise a key forward out of their club, with astronomical asking prices and huge contracts being signed. JOSH BARNES looks at why Collingwood pivoted to Tim Membrey and how he’ll change the Magpies’ attack.
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Craig McRae put it on the table after his Magpies won their final-round game against the Demons in August.
“I’d love a key forward,” the coach said.
“I don’t want to denigrate Dan (McStay) or ‘Checkers’ (Brody Mihocek) but they’ve been out for a major part of the year, which has left a big hole.”
McRae’s dream of filling that hole with a game-changing forward was just that, a dream, and Collingwood’s pivot to St Kilda’s Tim Membrey is a sign of the times for clubs hunting those marking men.
Just as the Brisbane Lions found out this trade period after Joe Daniher pulled the plug, landing a ready-made key forward is rarer than snaffling Oasis tickets.
Since the pandemic season forced Daniher, Jeremy Cameron and Jesse Hogan to seek new homes in 2020, a star-level key forward has not changed clubs in his prime, unless you count ruck-forward Luke Jackson heading to Fremantle.
McStay joining the Pies as a free agent is likely the best-credentialed move but he is more of a workhorse than a star, hence McRae looking around.
Mabior Chol moved twice and may have found his best home at the Hawks and other names include Jeremy Finlayson, Rory Lobb, Jacob Koschitzke and an old Jack Darling.
Even had the Pies seriously knocked on the door of a star key forward, they didn’t have anywhere near the capital to get a trade done.
When the next pundit questions why clubs sign players to long-term contracts, here is why.
The following goalkickers are going nowhere: Aaron Naughton (signed to 2032), Max King (2032), Darcy Fogarty (2031), Harry McKay (2030), Josh Treacy (2030), Charlie Curnow (2029), Jye Amiss (2029), Jacob van Rooyen (2029), Nick Larkey (2029).
Even if any of those players requested a trade, the price to get them would be astronomical.
Matchwinning full forwards have long been the stars of the game and even if they have been supplanted by midfielders in recent years, the key forwards are still so valuable that clubs refuse to let them hit even the free agency market.
So despite Collingwood’s hope of a key forward, or even a key back, they settled for flankers Dan Houston and Harry Perryman this off-season.
And it appears they will settle for Membrey as the new face in the forward half in 2025 when the delisted free agency (DFA) period opens on November 1.
Membrey is more than handy as a mobile forward, having kicked 284 goals in his last 166 games, including 30 majors this year.
As a nimble runner capable of playing up field, Membrey shouldn’t interrupt Collingwood’s attacking style but his fit alongside Mihocek and McStay is questionable.
Amid a disappointing season, the Magpies’ small forwards delivered again.
No team was better at scoring when the ball got inside 50 than Collingwood, who scored on 53.5 per cent of entries.
But the Magpies were only middling at turning inside-50s into marks, doing so on 23.6 per cent of entires, ranking seventh in the league.
Adding an extra tall player could lead to more marks but more likely, it would slow down an attack that was deadly at ground level.
Collingwood simply couldn’t play all of Membrey, Mihocek, McStay and Mason Cox.
In an era when landing high-level key forwards is so tough, you have to hit on targets around the fringes and Membrey is a very low-cost pick up.
He may be 30 years old – and would be the 10th player over 30 on the Magpie list at the start of next season – but he fits with McRae’s new mantra of established players over picks.
With some concerns about Mihocek’s body given the miles in his legs, McStay hoping for a full season of fitness and Cox on a downward turn, another warm body is handy.
McRae certainly hasn’t found that star, but nobody else can either.
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