Champion Data ratings reveal Geelong has named its weakest team of the season

IT MIGHT look complicated, but one fact from this Champion Data graph hits you right between the eyes when trying to predict the winner of Geelong v Sydney. WHERE DOES YOUR TEAM RANK?

Geelong captain Joel Selwood. Picture: Michael Klein

THE tipping comp in the Champion Data office must be extremely competitive.

So much so, one member of the staff at the official AFL stats supplier has developed a tool that rates the relative strength of every team named for each round.

It’s not pretty to look at — see below — but the insights are revealing. And one from this weekend hits you right between the eyes: Geelong is fielding its weakest team of the season.

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The Cats are without Patrick Dangerfield, the best player in the AFL, for the first time since he joined the club. Also missing from the best 22 are Dan Menzel, Mark Blicavs, Nakia Cockatoo, and Steven Motlop.

Champion Data calculates an average team quality for the round based on its player ranking system. On the graph, that average is zero.

The black blocks show the range of teams selected by each club this year relative to the quality ratings. The green line represents the quality of this week’s selected side, and the yellow dot is last week’s team — so St Kilda’s 22 against West Coast is right on the league average in terms of quality, an improvement on last week and slightly better than most teams picked by the Saints this year. But the big take-out is the Cats.

“Geelong has gone from a team quality of 7.5 points above the AFL average against Carlton in Round 19, to a team quality of two points below the AFL average against Sydney tonight – their lowest rating for the season,” Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said.

In fact, it’s the first time in two years Geelong’s selected team has been below the AFL average.

Sydney’s team, on the other hand, is more than 20 points above the AFL average. On paper, the Swans are starting almost four goals ahead of the Cats.

Champion Data team quality ratings for Round 20

The Round 20 ratings throw up a few other surprises.

“There are three teams who are fielding their strongest sides for the year – Melbourne, Essendon and Brisbane,” Hoyne said.

“Brisbane’s team is still well below the AFL average despite it being their best team for 2017.

“By way of quality, GWS and Melbourne is the match of the round, with the Showdown not too far behind.”

The graph also reveals the Demons and Giants’ teams are the biggest improvers in terms of quality rating from last week — thanks to inclusions like Nathan Jones, Bernie Vince, Steve Johnson and Shane Mumford — while Carlton and Port Adelaide have taken a big hit.

Listen to Daniel Hoyne and the Herald Sun’s Sam Landsberger drill down into the stats that really matter in footy every week in The Drill podcast. Check out this week’s episode below: