As finals race heats up, who loses as important as your team winning
AS THE finals race heats up, which teams lose can be as important as your team winning. So who should you be barracking against in Round 20?
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AS THE finals race heats up, which teams lose can be as important as your team winning.
Six days ago Paddy Ryder and Robbie Gray’s last-minute heroics sent a dagger through the hearts of St Kilda fans, and Richmond supporters were also devastated.
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That may have involved some deja vu — they have they been in the same situation themselves a number of times — but an upset St Kilda win would have given the Tigers’ top-four hopes a huge boost.
Port Adelaide is four points behind the Tigers but with a huge percentage advantage — if Richmond or the Giants slip, Port is ready to pounce.
Every team down to 12th-placed Hawthorn is in a similar boat.
So who should you be barracking against in Round 20?
ADELAIDE
Crows fans will be cheering on the Swans tonight. If Geelong loses, the Crows can go two games clear on top with a win in Sunday’s Showdown. If the Cats and Port Adelaide both win, top spot comes down to percentage.
GEELONG
The Cats want to kill off Sydney’s top-four hopes tonight then hope Melbourne defeats GWS and Hawthorn takes down Richmond, all but locking in a top-two finish.
A Crows loss in the Showdown keeps hopes of finishing on top alive.
GWS GIANTS
Still third despite form slump, but lose to Melbourne and top-four bets are off. Richmond losing to Hawthorn would help.
The question of who to back in the Showdown rests on the Giants’ result tomorrow. If they win they are only two points behind the Crows and could finish on top if Port Adelaide causes an upset. But if the Giants lose to Melbourne they want Adelaide to win to protect a top-four spot.
RICHMOND
Port Adelaide got out of jail against the Saints but Tiger fans are hoping that doesn’t happen this week against Adelaide.
The GWS v Melbourne game is tough. If you’re optimistic you want the Demons to win, allowing Richmond to jump a game ahead of the Giants with a win against Hawthorn (another hit to their percentage would make it even better). More nervous Tiger fans might be hoping the Dees fall short, making a top-four finish more challenging but staying two games clear in the eight.
The Sydney v Geelong game is also complicated but given the Cats’ fixture for the rest of the year it’s hard to see them finishing any lower than third so keeping the Swans at bay is more important — go Catters!
SYDNEY
The Swans’ charge towards the top four has hit a snag and could be finished completely if they can’t beat Geelong, and Richmond and the Giants both win this weekend.
Swans fans will be barracking hard for the Hawks and also hoping Melbourne can knock off GWS in Canberra — unless they lose Friday night, in which case it might be better to give up on the double chance and safeguard a finals berth with a Demons loss.
You also want West Coast and the Western Bulldogs to lose.
MELBOURNE
Another team with its immediate fate in its own hands. If the Demons come home away from Canberra with four points they can again dream of the top four, especially if Geelong wins at home against Sydney, Hawthorn defeats Richmond and the Crows beat Port Adelaide.
Losses by the Eagles and Bulldogs would also be handy.
WEST COAST
A win against St Kilda would be a great start. If that happens, the Eagles are still in the top-four race and will be hoping for the same results as Demon fans, with the possible exception of GWS knocking off the Dees.
If the Eagles stumble at Etihad Stadium, they would love Carlton to upset Essendon and really want Richmond and the Giants to win.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
First item on the agenda is a win against the Lions, and a big percentage boost would be a bonus — the Bulldogs’ percentage of 100.3 is the lowest of the top 10 teams.
If St Kilda defeats West Coast, Geelong overcomes Sydney and the Giants defeat Melbourne, the Dogs could be sixth after this round.
Amazingly, Champion Data still rates them a six per cent change of finishing in the top four (but just a 52 per cent chance of playing finals, ranked ninth).
ESSENDON
Carlton upset the Bombers in Round 3 in similar conditions to what we can expect at the MCG tomorrow, so Bomber fans wouldn’t want to get ahead of themselves.
But a Geelong win against Sydney would boost their hopes of playing in September, and potentially in a home final if the Swans’ percentage takes a big hit. It’s a similar story for Melbourne against the Giants.
St Kilda is just a game behind but the Dons’ percentage is more than 10 per cent higher so they really want the Saints to do it for Nick Riewoldt against West Coast.
ST KILDA
Now we’re down to the teams that just need everyone above them to lose to have a chance of playing in September.
Hoping for Carlton to defeat Essendon and Brisbane to upset the Bulldogs may seem far-fetched, but hey, it’s that kind of season.
More realistically, Sydney losing to Geelong and Melbourne to the Giants would be helpful.
And a Hawthorn loss would hopefully end its finals challenge and ensure the Saints get an extra top-10 draft pick at the end of the year.
HAWTHORN
If St Kilda and Essendon lose the Hawks could be 10th after this weekend. But really they just have to keep winning and cross their fingers.
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