Geelong faces its bogey team but can it replicate winning blueprint, writes David King

NO Patrick Dangerfield and facing its bogey team. However, Geelong has been shown the blueprint to victory, it’s whether they can implement it, writes David King.

Patrick Dangerfield will miss the Cats’ game against Sydney.

GEELONG, without its trump card Patrick Dangerfield, attacks the AFL’s most frugal defensive outfit of the past decade.

In the week in which Dangerfield’s chances of back-to-back Brownlow Medals slipped through his fingers because of suspension, the Cats’ “underbelly” must ensure the same thing doesn’t happen to securing the double chance in the finals.

The method of the 2017 Cats gives them their best opportunity to defeat their bogey team Sydney at Simonds Stadium.

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Historically the first facet to break down has been the Geelong forward 50. In their past two meetings with Sydney, Geelong has had nine and 32 inside 50s more than the Swans — huge numbers, but the Cats weren’t able to convert them on the scoreboard.

What has been the issue?

Marking the inside 50 entries is critical. Eight, 14, 12 and seven marks in that zone over the past four meetings highlights just how difficult it is to win in the air against Heath Grundy, Dane Rampe and the 13 other Swans who flood back.

Kurt Tippett spoils the ball during last year’s preliminary final. Picture: Phil Hillyard

The 14 marks inside 50 game was a win for the Cats and that must be the target on Friday night.

Hawthorn has shown the blueprint. Drag the Swans midfielders to deep defensive positions like Jarryd Roughead did last Friday night, when he out-marked Dan Hannebery and Zak Jones, the wingman dragged to the last line. Drag back Swans ruckman Sam Naismith, too. He is only fair in defensive marking contests.

At the same time, big Cat Zac Smith must demonstrate to his coach Chris Scott that last week wasn’t a one-off.

Smith’s one-on-one numbers must be re-evaluated and he must be given more opportunity over the next month as winning more than 70 per cent of those battles is unheard of — although it’s a very small sample size of only seven one-on-one contests. Scott will be wanting to see more.

High ball entries will not bring a positive return for Geelong, which must use short, sharp, darting entries to leading types maintain possession, almost working their way inside 70m to 60m, then piercing the arc rather than blasting long and ultimately easily defendable kicks.

Last week against Carlton Tom Hawkins played the best game of his 206-game career, but Friday night will be a completely different proposition. Last week “The Tomahawk” had his most disposals in a game (27) and kicked six goals for the sixth time. He has kicked seven only once, against Brisbane in 2014.

Hawkins is averaging three marks inside 50, ranked sixth in the league. Dangerfield is next best for the Cats, then come Dan Menzel, who has been on the outer, Harry Taylor and Rhys Stanley, who have been sporadic at best.

James Parsons looks like he’s ready to break out after only 14 games of AFL exposure, but there is a view that one-on-one he’s not quite there yet.

Tom Hawkins kicked six goals last week against Carlton.

Would Chris Scott consider throwing Andrew Mackie forward? Could Mackie wind the clock back a decade to the position he started his AFL journey, before he become an All-Australian half-back flanker? Playing Mackie as a pinch-hitting forward, or as a wingman who goes forward, may just be the panacea required to provide Geelong offensive superiority.

Joel Selwood has always ruled the centre square at Kardinia Park with aplomb. In the absence of Dangerfield, it would not surprise to see John Longmire commit a tagging, run-with player to keep Selwood quiet, so expect him to be enormous because he thrives on those challenges.

Over the past four weeks the Geelong clearance game has fallen dramatically from a +1 to a -8 clearance differential that ranks the Cats ranked 17th during that time. Even Carlton proved too strong in tight, winning the clearance battle 39 to 31. Despite the 65-point margin last week, Scott knows that cannot be the case again.

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PLAYER	OFFENSIVE CONTESTS	OUTMARK	WIN	LOSS	OUTMARKED
AFL average	---	14%	28%	31%	8%
Tom Hawkins	101	20%	40%	26%	3%
Daniel Menzel	45	9%	29%	24%	4%
Harry Taylor	31	29%	42%	19%	0%
Patrick Dangerfield	28	32%	57%	14%	4%
Mark Blicavs	18	39%	56%	11%	0%
Rhys Stanley	15	13%	27%	40%	13%
James Parsons	11	0%	9%	55%	9%
Zac Smith	7	29%	71%	0%	0%

Mitch Duncan’s year hasn’t garnered rave reviews despite nine games of 30 or more disposals. He had achieved 30-plus disposals only nine times in the previous seven seasons. Scott Selwood had his best disposal game for Geelong last week with 26 possessions, but I wonder if Zach Tuohy isn’t worth a look inside the centre bounce set-up or as a genuine midfielder and over the next three to four weeks.

Tuohy is proactive and his pure skill could just be the wildcard that could rock the Swans, who are rated as only the 12th best clearance team.

Opportunity is screaming at the Cats and their “underbelly” is strong and in form. Supply should not be an issue, but ensuring the forward entries make an impact on the scoreboard will be critical.

Mitch Duncan has flown under the radar this season. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Could Andrew Mackie be used as a pinch-hitting forward?

The past four weeks Geelong has had the league’s third best conversion rate of inside 50s to a goal — 30 per cent — compared with only 11 per cent against the Swans in last year’s preliminary final.

This year Geelong has been the No.1 one-on-one team. The Cats win five per cent more one-on-one than the next best team, Port Adelaide, and importantly lose three per cent fewer than Port and West Coast.

Most would question that, considering the make-up of the forward six with or without Taylor and Dangerfield and/or Menzel, but it’s clearly an area of strength. Just take a look at the offensive one-on-one chart to evaluate the pros and cons of individuals in this forward line.

If the midfield can hold up against what’s considered a strong Sydney midfield, then maybe Scott has some decisions to ponder pre-finals. How do the Cats become more damaging with their forward half of the field against the very best?

The role of Dangerfield, who is clearly Geelong’s second best forward, if not its best, will be the subject of much discussion. I’ve suggested a look at Mackie forward or, at minimum, in bursts to see what that does to the match-ups or maybe trial Joel Selwood at deep forward. No one will want the ball on the ground near goals if Selwood is around.

Imagine the confidence at the Cattery if Geelong wins without Dangerfield. It just might take a wildcard playing performance or possibly a wildcard coaching initiative.

Alastair Clarkson does it every single time against John Longmire. Over to you, Chris Scott.

Either way, the game should be a belter.