The SuperCoach Investor’s trade tips for Round 12 and surviving the bye rounds
The bye rounds are here and premium scorer Lachie Whitfield has thrown SuperCoaches the ultimate curveball by suffering a serious injury. So how do we cope with his absence and successfully navigate the byes? Trade tips revealed.
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Brace yourselves ladies and gentlemen, they’re finally here.
The byes have arrived and they’ve thrown the stock market into a tailspin with six key stocks (Essendon, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Western Bulldogs) placed on a “trading halt” for Round 12.
Analysts are forecasting “bearish” conditions over the next three weeks with scoring expected to rival that of the Great Depression and more recently, Global Financial Crisis.
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Don’t despair, however, because there will be many astute coaches among the ranks who have foreshadowed and prepared meticulously for this blip in the market.
They will see opportunity, while others, will see futility.
The SuperCoach Investor, Daniel Begala, digs into his deep markets experience to deliver his final take on how to best tackle the byes.
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CURVEBALL: LACHIE WHITFIELD
Even the best-laid plans can come tumbling down in a heartbeat.
Exhibit A: Lachie Whitfield.
He was primed, purring and ready to guide us through Round 12 and 13 of the ensuing bye period. This, however, will fail to eventuate following surgery to his shoulder that will see him cast aside for four-to-six weeks (if Leon Cameron has his way).
This is the ultimate curveball. It will be the making (and breaking) of the 87,000 coaches that boast his services, so listen up and take note.
It’s time to “short” the Whitfield stock and focus your attention on a portfolio replacement that provides the greatest level of coverage across Rounds 12 to 14.
The Begala Brigade has 19 ready-made stocks available for selection this week, so I am genuinely considering a straight swap of Lachie Whitfield for James Sicily ($492, DEF) or Luke Ryan ($523k, DEF) who will not even feature in Round 12 action.
[Gasps …]
My weakest bye — like most pundits — is Round 13 and I am conservatively estimating only 14 players being available for selection prior to any changes this week.
To address this weakness, I am going to sacrifice my 20th scoring player for Round 12 and instead reinforce my playing stocks for Round 13.
Don’t forget, only your best 18 scoring players are considered across the byes.
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I have great confidence that Sicily and Ryan will play (pending any training mishaps) and this should enable me to get an additional four stocks into my portfolio on the eve of Round 13 — a full complement.
It’s these “calculated” risks that will help differentiate you from the herd and ensure you can get 18 stocks to the starting line across all of the byes.
If you’ve got Noah Answerth (MID/DEF) or Xavier Duursma (MID/DEF) currently positioned in the midfield, why not leverage the benefits of dual-position eligibility and turn Whitfield into a red-hot Stephen Coniglio ($510k, MID) who is fresh from a SuperCoach double ton? Discounting his injury-affected patch, it’s SuperCoach arbitrage personified.
TRADE, TRADE AND DON’T STOP TRADING
It’s time to throw caution to the wind and release the shackles of your trades.
Those chasing overall rankings success will deploy most, if not all trades, before the dust settles on the byes with a full-premium side the likely result.
Some trades will create liquidity, Some trades will fill a scoring void and some trades will enable long-anticipated upgrades.
Just trade and don’t stop trading. That’s my view.
It’s only early days (and subject to team selection) but my key trade targets include Sicily (Round 12), Robbie Gray (Round 13) and Lachie Neale (Round 14) if all the stars align.
My forward line is now complete, but at $405k, I think it would be remiss of coaches not to take the punt on a fit-and-firing Gray with the likes of Patrick Dangerfield (MID/FWD) to transition to the midfield temporarily. We know he does his best work at the coalface … so set him free!
At this stage, I only require an additional five premiums (2 MID, 3 DEF) to finalise my side and this should be achieved through a mix of carefully executed trades during the byes.
It will, however, be reliant on the availability of players such as Brett Bewley ($117k, MID), Jackson Hately ($148k, MID) and Ryan Gardner ($102k, FWD/DEF) pressing their case for selection.
Coaches — much like investors — must set trade goals (i.e. Lachie Neale, Round 14) and move heaven and earth in the meantime to facilitate these moves.
Cast away any fears you have of the byes. It’s time to embrace them.
You certainly won’t win any SuperCoach finals in June, but they will be the making of a late season rankings surge and the perfect preparation for the tail end of your leagues.
Before you know it, you’ll be saying “Bye, Bye, Bye(s)” to the byes, so make the most of them.
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