SuperCoach AFL trade guide: The best options to navigate first two weeks of bye rounds
Xavier Duursma and Zak Butters won’t be playing this week due to a bye. But does that mean you should trade them? Plus the best SuperCoach premiums to target for Round 12.
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The savvy SuperCoach had Round 12 pencilled in as the bye week they would build a war chest to load their side with premiums.
The only issue? There’s no obvious bubble boy.
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Impressive one-gamer Dylan Clarke, Fremantle’s Brett Bewley and Western Bulldogs mid-season draftee Ryan Gardner have the bye, robbing coaches of the three top downgrade options.
Leon Cameron, Chris Scott, Adam Simpson and Chris Fagan will shape the plans of thousands of teams this week.
If Jackson Hately, Darcy Fort, Josh Rotham or Mitchell Hinge earn a re-call, any of these four two-gamers would provide a stepping stone to the leading scorers.
Deciding which premiums to target this week will be difficult.
Most coaches will target Round 14 players and use their trades over the next two weeks to compensate for their absence.
Only Patrick Cripps, who is already in 61.9 per cent of teams, has scored more points than North Melbourne bull Ben Cunnington of the Round 14 bye players.
Cunnington has a three-round average of 119.7, is still only in 2.8 per cent of teams and hasn’t scored less than 91 this year with six scores of 115 or better.
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If the Roos star doesn’t take your fancy, Richmond pair Dustin Martin and Bachar Houli are worth consideration.
Houli has the best three-round average of any defender (127.7), while Martin has roared back to form with scores of 128 and 113 in the past three weeks.
However, Josh Kelly should be top of your shopping list, but he’ll be hard to get at $659,700 with so few downgrade targets.
TOP TARGETS
BEN CUNNINGTON $565,000, Mid, Avg 113.3, Break even 105
The North Melbourne contested bull has not averaged better than 96.3 in any season, but this year has elevated himself into elite SuperCoach status. Incredibly consistent, Cunnington has not scored below 91 and has three totals above 120. He takes on Gold Coast, who have leaked points to midfielders, this weekend. A possible Matt De Boer tag looms in Round 13, but the Roos have a friendly fixture for the rest of the season. You’d be foolish not to consider him.
DUSTIN MARTIN $524,700, Mid, Avg 96.9, BE 108
Welcome back Dusty. The Brownlow medallist has hit the scoreboard and been close to his best in the past three weeks, making him a legitimate target for the first week of the byes. Martin has not scored below 89 since he returned to the Tigers side in Round 5 and has pumped out 128, 92 and 113 in the past three weeks. If you traded him out after an underwhelming start, it might be time to swallow your pride.
JOSH KELLY, $659,700, Mid, Avg 124.1, BE 108
Kelly is hurtling toward a price of $700,000 after four consecutive scores of 131 or better. His average of 124.1 is the fourth-best of the season, behind only Brodie Grundy, Max Gawn and Lachie Neale. The GWS ball magnet has had a recent history of soft-tissue injuries, but on his recent numbers you can’t afford to let that sway your trade decision. It might take two downgrades to build your bank, but you won’t regret bringing in Kelly.
BACHAR HOULI $541,100, Def, Avg 110.8, BE 42
The No. 1 defender over the past three weeks? Not Lachie Whitfield. Not Jake Lloyd. Bachar Houli. Houli has a three-round average of 127.7 which puts him ahead of Lloyd (126.3), Shannon Hurn (119.3) and Whitfield (116.7). It feels like we have been coming up with excuses not to pick him in recent weeks — age, injury history and Jayden Short’s possible return among them. But forget those. Houli is in red-hot form and you’re only missing out by not having him.
JEREMY CAMERON $483,400, Fwd, Avg 99.8, BE 84
You might have missed out on Cameron’s hundred after five goals and 20 disposals against Gold Coast, but he’s still well priced heading into Round 12. Cameron has six tons in 11 games this year, only two scores below 70 and is scoring consistently enough not to be lumped in with the traditional ‘avoid key forwards at all costs’ rule. GWS has a friendly run home and plays Gold Coast again in SuperCoach grand final week.
STEPHEN CONIGLIO $510,100, Mid, Avg 106.4, BE 22
After the first double ton of the year against the Suns — 207 — Coniglio’s break even has crashed back to 22. It’s never wise to chase points and Coniglio has had a few quiet weeks this year, but with a Round 14 bye and at $78,500 less than his starting price he’s a perfect upgrade option this week. He had three scores below 90 before the weekend, but has been battling different injuries.
RORY LAIRD $504,600, Def, Avg 99, BE 94
One of the most popular defenders, Laird is available for $83,000 less than his starting price with two rounds left before his bye. He’s been incredibly consistent this year with 11 scores between 84 and 124. Reliability has always been Laird’s strength and although he hasn’t hit triple figures as often as recent years, you should be aiming to have him in your finished defence.
CHOPPING BLOCK
TOM LIBERATORE $423,800, Mid
MATT PARKER $240,200, Fwd
CONNOR ROZEE $412,400, Def-Fwd
ISAAC HEENEY $452,300, Fwd-Mid
DARCY MOORE $381,100, Def-Fwd
WILLEM DREW $321,800, Fwd-Mid
WILL HAYES $201,300, Mid
Liberatore, Parker, Rozee, Drew and Hayes each have the bye this week and you can move them on without too many regrets. While Liberatore and Rozee could score well for the rest of the year, you need to sacrifice some value if you want to make the jump to top premiums such as Josh Kelly. You won’t get there simply by upgrading and downgrading rookies. Parker has done his job, making more than $100,000, while Drew has been on the outer at Port Adelaide for about a month. You can afford to hold Moore for another week before his Round 13 bye, while Heeney makes this list due to a frustrating run of outs. He only has one hundred in his past seven games and three tons for the year. He might be the pawn who gets you Travis Boak next week.
HOLD
XAVIER DUURSMA $362,100, Def-Mid
ZAK BUTTERS $297,200, Mid
Consider the break evens of this Port Adelaide pair before you move them on. It’s tempting to cash in on their value if it helps you bring in premiums, but if you can get through this week they’ll be available and make money until the end of the byes. Butters has a break even of 11 after his 112 against St Kilda, while Duursma has gone 108 and 92 in his past two games.
BARGAIN BIN
Under $500k
Patrick Dangerfield $499,200
Jeremy Cameron $483,400
Jacob Hopper $481,400
Jack Ziebell $467,500
Rowan Marshall $462,000
Under $450k
James Worpel $444,800
Jack Darling $417,000
Wayne Milera $411,400
Angus Brayshaw $407,100
Jade Gresham $397,500
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