SuperCoach Cheapie Bible: Decision time on top rookies Brayshaw, Dow, LDU
IT’S the first of many crucial rookie decision weeks in SuperCoach, with big calls to be made on first-round draft picks including Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow and Luke Davies-Uniacke.
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IT’S the first of many crucial rookie decision weeks in SuperCoach, with big calls to be made on first-round draft picks Andrew Brayshaw, Paddy Dow and Luke Davies-Uniacke.
Brayshaw and Davies-Uniacke both have break-evens they might struggle to reach this week and you hardly want to be losing cash on a rookie this early in the season.
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On a more positive note, Jaidyn Stephenson and Cam Rayner delivered great scores to send their break-evens crashing back to negative territory and Tim Kelly and Jeremy Finlayson look like being fixtures in our teams for a long time yet.
Scroll down for our take on how all the rookie-priced players are travelling after Round 4.
ADELAIDE V COLLINGWOOD
Jaidyn Stephenson ($245,100) — 115 points Breakeven: -4
Stephenson bounced back from his 33 last week with a stunning score and a five-goal performance against the Crows. He’ll gain plenty of cash for a few weeks yet thanks to this and owners who loopholed his score on Friday would have been sitting pretty over the weekend.
Sam Murray ($251,200) — 92 points Breakeven: -40
Consecutive 90s for Murray, who has scored above 70 in three of his first four games in black and white. He looms as a reliable option in defence to carry you through to at least the byes and is set for another big price rise this weekend.
Callum Brown ($253,700) — 62 points Breakeven: 2
Brown appears to have decent job security after impressing in the past two weeks, but his price is too high to be considering bringing him in. You probably needed to grab him in the last few weeks to get him in your side.
Ben Crocker ($223,400) — 60 points Breakeven: 27
Crocker shouldn’t be expected to post huge numbers playing the small forward role and his 60 on Friday was his best score of the season. He’s in a similar boat to Brown, where you have probably missed the chance to bring him in due to price rises over the past two weeks.
Darcy Fogarty ($174,000) — 44 points Breakeven: 14
The Crows have faced criticism for being too tall in the wet conditions on Friday and Fogarty could be the fall guy at the selection table this week. His break-even is no longer negative and you would be better served waiting for a player like Jack Higgins to be on the bubble.
Tom Doedee ($276,800) — 57 points Breakeven: 21
The first time Doedee has dipped below 80, but considering his strength has been intercept marking, forgive him for his performance in wet conditions. He’ll still rise nicely in price for at least a month or so yet and we have seen enough evidence to keep him in our starting sides.
GWS GIANTS V FREMANTLE
Jeremy Finlayson ($283,600) — 101 points Breakeven: -11
Finlayson looks so composed in the Giants defence and has taken seamlessly to the top level. His lowest score so far has been 77 and he’s topped 100 twice in four games. You’d be happy to start him in defence or midfield if you swung him into the middle to trade in Ed Richards last week. If he keeps this scoring up, he might even be worth holding until season’s end considering his dual-position status.
Bailey Banfield ($218,100) — 69 points Breakeven: -10
Another score of 69 for the new Dockers tagger, who was sent to nullify Lachie Whitfield. Banfield is unlikely to accumulate huge points in this role, but he’s shown he’s a consistent scorer between 50-70. Expect him to be around this mark and make money for a while yet. He’s preferably a bench option in your midfield.
Mitch Crowden ($159,200) — 61 points Breakeven: -40
Those who traded in Crowden before his price rise would have been happy with his output. He had 15 disposals, five marks and seven tackles and should have done enough to earn an extended run in the Dockers team. If he continues to score 60 or above, it’s worth considering loopholing his score with Bailey Fritsch. The Docker and Demon have been posting similar numbers.
Andrew Brayshaw ($218,400) — 42 points Breakeven: 54
We’ve seen enough of Brayshaw now to question whether his big JLT Series scoring was a tease. Tempting to hold him for another few weeks as a big score would smash his break-even, but there is a risk he could start losing money as soon as this week. If there’s a downgrade target you like, it’s time to cash in.
Adam Cerra ($202,600) — 34 points Breakeven: 32
Cerra was only in one per cent of teams before his price rise and is unlikely to be on many radars this week. No doubt he will mature in to a fine player for the Dockers, but he doesn’t appear to have much Supercoach relevance this year.
RICHMOND V BRISBANE LIONS
Jack Graham ($261,100) — 54 points. Breakeven: 62
If you hadn’t already pulled the pin on Graham, now might be the time. He lost $7000 in price last week and fell further after his 54 points failed to meet his break-even of 88. If you don’t have him, watch closely for when his price bottoms out in case he’s in your plans. He might become available for about $220,000 at some point.
Zach Bailey ($139,800) — 15 points Breakeven: 52
Bailey was on a few radars after his impressive NEAFL form won him a debut and shouldn’t be completely scratched off your list just yet. He could hardly have debuted in tougher conditions against the reigning premier and in a team which was well beaten. His output will need to increase significantly in game two to convince us to part with his higher rookie price though.
Cam Rayner ($230,300) — 97 points Breakeven: -25
How frustrated would you be if you traded Rayner out after Round 2? His break-even was 38 before he cranked out a career-best 97 against the Tigers and he’s going to make a lot more money with that score factored in for the next few weeks. Enjoy the price rise if you held on to last year’s No. 1 draft pick, who certainly looks to have rewarded your loyalty.
WESTERN BULLDOGS V SYDNEY
Ed Richards ($188,100) — 67 points Breakeven: -38
One of the most popular downgrades options of the season to date, but Richards would have had a few coaches worried when his score was about 20 at halftime. He lifted after the main break and delivered a total which will keep his break-even negative for a week or two yet. Richards would ideally be a bench option in defence.
Aaron Naughton ($218,400) — 78 points Breakeven: -11
How often do you hear people talk about the importance of patience in Supercoach? After an underwhelming start, Naughton has delivered consecutive scores above 60 and appears a decent source of cash generation. His score against the Swans was boosted by seven marks to go with 15 disposals. Like Ed Richards, you’d prefer to have him on your bench than have to field him.
Tim English ($220,100) — 78 points Breakeven: -25
English is now in more than 30 per cent of teams and with good reason. He’s scoring well, has been thrown plenty of responsibility and has a respectable average of 67.5. There’s starting to be a few question marks hanging over some of the premium ruckmen. Could you consider downgrading, fielding English and using your bank to upgrade elsewhere?
Billy Gowers ($179,100) — 48 points Breakeven: 14
Gowers is going to be a slow burn for his owners and while his price might get to $200,000 eventually, you might need to consider a downgrade if a higher-scoring option becomes available up forward such as Jack Higgins.
Aliir Aliir ($218,100) — 32 points Breakeven: 64
Too expensive to be under consideration when he has averaged 67 or less in the two seasons he’s featured for the Swans.
NORTH MELBOURNE V CARLTON
Paddy Dow ($208,600) — 41 points Breakeven: 32
Dow still features in a quarter of teams, but how long can he stay there? He’s only got a bit more cash left to make and it’s time to start weighing up whether to use your bank to turn him into a premium on-baller or taking a small profit for a cheaper rookie.
Cam O’Shea ($166,000) — 45 points Breakeven: 4
O’Shea will be on the bubble if he holds his spot this week, but do you really want to be parting with $166,000 for a player who has been in and out of the side and scored 48 and 45 in his two appearances to date?
Lochie O’Brien ($162,300) — 46 points Breakeven: 3
Our first look at O’Brien, who won’t rise in price for at least another two weeks. He tallied 11 possessions, four marks and two tackles in game one, respectable enough in a team which was walloped. Still prefer Nick Coffield who is a similar price, but both are worth consideration if you have Jeremy Finlayson in midfield and want to be able to swing him to defence.
Jarrod Garlett ($193,300) — 71 points Breakeven: -22
You’d be reasonably pleased if you started with Garlett, who appears capable of pushing his price toward $250,000 and making a tidy profit. Keep him as bench cover up forward until his break-even gets closer to his average, currently 53.7.
Luke Davies-Uniacke ($205,000) — 37 points Breakeven: 60
See Paddy Dow.
WEST COAST V GOLD COAST
Willie Rioli ($144,700) — 48 points Breakeven: -3
Rioli was on the bubble this week and while his job security appears strong enough considering Liam Ryan’s long term injury, you needed to get him at his starting price to make a trade worthwhile.
Dan Venables ($170,500) — 61 points Breakeven: 16
Some questioned whether Venables would keep his spot after an underwhelming game last week, but he did and produced his best Supercoach score yet. The early evidence suggests he won’t be a heavy scorer, but he has more money to make.
Jake Waterman ($228,100) — 61 points Breakeven: 1
Stayed in the side despite Josh Kennedy’s presence, a welcome sign for his owners. He averaged 67 without Kennedy in the team and still accumulated 61 points with him. There’s a lot to like about Waterman and his price will keep rising steadily for at least another month.
Nick Holman ($237,000) — 32 points Breakeven: 25
Our first disappointment from Holman, who just before halftime looked headed to the main break with a doughnut next to his name. Hard to know whether this was a one off and we can expect a return to his strong scoring next round. Gold Coast plays Brisbane this Sunday, so you won’t have the option of loopholing him from your bench either.
ESSENDON V PORT ADELAIDE
Todd Marshall ($271,300) — 46 points Breakeven: 44
Marshall’s lowest score of the season to date on what was a difficult day for the Power. This will sit in his price fluctuations for the next few weeks and while he’s worth holding if you are among the 4000 teams who have him, don’t be trading him in at that price.
Riley Bonner ($317,500) — 60 points Breakeven: 58
Has the Bonner bubble burst? He was so good in the first three rounds, we can forgive him for one down week. Ideally he will rise to about $400,000 before you would consider trading him out for a fallen premium, but he needs a massive score in the next few weeks. He had 14 disposals but only one mark and one tackle, compared to his average of seven marks per game in rounds one to three.
Matt Guelfi ($117,300) — 72 points Breakeven: -75
The first signs on the big stage from Guelfi were promising. We get another week to have a look at him before his price jumps, but he looms as an ideal downgrade option for a player such as Dan Venables or Bayley Fritsch. If you still have Liam Ryan, you might want to consider getting the Bomber in too. Guelfi had 17 possessions and three marks against the Power.
Josh Begley ($221,900) — 27 points Breakeven: 57
This was Begley’s lowest total in 2018 and failed to meet his break-even of 36. He doesn’t attract enough possessions to be traded in to your Supercoach side, especially when other rookie forwards can be snapped up $100,000 cheaper.
HAWTHORN V MELBOURNE
David Mirra ($102,400) Breakeven: -94
The 9000 teams who had Mirra pencilled in before he made a long-awaited debut in brown and gold would have been thrilled with what they saw. If he produces another effort like his debut 77 in game two, he’ll be hotly sought after when the lockout is over after Round 5.
Bayley Fritsch ($199,600) — 58 points Breakeven: 3
Talk about consistency! Fritsch has posted scores of 60,60, 56 and 58 in the first four matches of his Demons career. You’d ideally love him to achieve a score above 80 in the next few weeks to continue his cash generation, but he’s a reasonably reliable option in your last forward spot. At least you know what you’re going to get.
GEELONG V ST KILDA
Jordan Cunico ($188,600) — 109 points Breakeven: -107
Hard not to be impressed by Cunico’s performance against the Saints, which featured 21 possessions, five marks and two goals. You probably want to see him produce similar numbers in his second game to consider paying a top rookie price for him though.
Tim Kelly ($303,600) — 89 points Breakeven: -1
Kelly continues to deliver the goods, with 89 impressively his lowest score to date. The tricky question in coming weeks will be how long you let his price rise before you trade him to a premium. Or, could Kelly be the rookie you hold on to for the entire campaign?
Lachlan Fogarty ($217,600) — 80 points Breakeven: -22
Fogarty is averaging about 70 points and has proven to be one of the top cash cows in midfield. His break-even remains negative which is a bonus for his owners, but it’d be a brave call to part with more than $200,000 to bring him in now.
Esava Ratugolea ($165,800) — 60 points Breakeven: -37
You’ve missed the opportunity to bring Ratugolea in at his cheapest price, but he’s done enough in recent weeks to justify his spot in Geelong’s team. If you are keen on him, make this the week you bring him in before his price heads close to $200,000.
Jack Henry ($165,800) — 46 points Breakeven: -42
Fluctuating performances are always likely from some rookies and Henry appears one of those. His 93 last week was promising and he’s in 10 per cent of teams as a result, but he also scored 27 on debut. Don’t pay the extra money for him now.
Nick Coffield ($171,300) — 80 points Breakeven: -45
The time has come to consider whether to bring Coffield in before his price ends up above $200,000. Scores of 66 and 80 have been a promising start to his burgeoning career and his MID-DEF swing is ideal when he can be directly swapped with Jeremy Finalyson. Expect his ownership to rise from 15 per cent to above 20 per cent this week.
Rowan Marshall ($219,400) — 39 points Breakeven: 11
Marshall spent more time forward this week with Tom Hickey in the side and his scoring reflected a lack of centre square duties. His scoring is going to rely largely on how much time he spends in the ruck.
Ben Long ($207,300) — 65 points Breakeven: 22
If you wanted to bring Long in, you needed to have traded him in by now. The Saint forward’s ceiling isn’t high enough to part with more than $200,000.
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