KFC SuperCoach AFL Round 5: Trade guide, teams fallout
A sudden shortage of defenders threw KFC SuperCoach plan into chaos but there is relief at hand after some surprise selection moves. Plus top rookies, trade tips and a big Friday night whisper.
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Friday team selection has thrown a lifeline to KFC SuperCoach players scrambling for cover after a series of injuries and omissions threatened to leave teams short in Round 5.
Coaches already dealing with injuries to Jeremy Howe, Tom Stewart and Nat Fyfe learned on Thursday that Jarrod Brander was also hurt, while Collingwood surprisingly axed John Noble.
West Coast’s Brander features in more than 103,000 KFC SuperCoach teams, while Noble is in 62,000 sides.
But there is at least some bench cover on offer after Trent Rivers (44.5 per cent of teams) made the cut for Melbourne’s clash against Richmond on Sunday.
Crow Will Hamill and Docker Sam Sturt will also play after originally being named on extended interchange benches. Sturt returns after just one game out with an ankle injury. Tom Green is also in the Giants’ final 22 to face Hawthorn.
INS AND OUTS: SEE THE FULL ROUND 5 TEAMS HERE
The news wasn’t as good for Tiger Marlion Pickett, with the second-most popular player in SuperCoach named as an emergency.
Three debuts this week are also worth watching for SuperCoach buyers.
Small forward Jake Aarts ($123,900 FWD) will play his first AFL game after several years in Richmond’s VFL team, former North Melbourne midfielder Mitch Hibberd ($114,400 MID) will play his first game for Essendon after a year in the VFL and the Hawks will unveil Harry Jones ($123,900 MID). The 21-year-old, recruited in the 2018 rookie draft, averaged 21 disposals and six tackles for Box Hill last year.
Harry Jones to debut for the Hawks. Last four scores in the VFL last season:
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) July 3, 2020
121
139
112
127#SuperCoach
North Melbourne has named Ben Cunnington, but he remains in doubt.
Not that his presence should concern owners of Jy Simpkin, who has been named in the middle.
Brodie Grundy will be a popular vice-captaincy choice as he prepares to take on Essendon back-up ruckman Andrew Phillips.
With Tom Bellchambers hurt, the Bombers’ big man crisis is so bad Darcy Cameron has put on a black and red jumper to help make up the numbers in a Friday night scratch match against Collingwood.
It’s also worth noting that Noble is the only Collingwood emergency not playing in that game at the MCG, and could be on standby in case there’s a late change for the Pies.
THE PHANTOM: BEST CAPTAINCY OPTIONS FOR ROUND 5
HOWE, FYFE INJURIES CAUSE KFC SUPERCOACH HEADACHE
The planning started on Thursday night when Jeremy Howe went down.
It had gone into overdrive by Sunday as KFC SuperCoaches juggled injuries to popular picks Nat Fyfe, Tom Stewart and Sam Naismith.
Replacing the points these players provide — in particular Howe, Fyfe and Stewart — should be your priority for Round 5.
But there’s also merit in taking a long-term view and replacing their premium numbers during the next 2-3 weeks.
That would mean using Fyfe’s $670,500 price tag to fill your bank before upgrading rookies in rounds 6 and 7.
Similarly, Howe ($536,700), provides coaches the opportunity to cash in and improve four positions, rather than two.
Consider this.
If you downgraded Howe to Jordan Ridley ($410,100) and Fyfe to Jy Simpkin ($520,900), you would gain two players averaging 109 or more while banking $276,200.
That would likely be enough to turn popular rookies such as Brandon Starcevich or John Noble into fallen premiums in coming weeks.
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Of course, there’s potential pitfalls to this plan.
What’s to say a player desperately out of form can recapture their best?
Marcus Bontempelli, Patrick Dangerfield and Tom Mitchell, who have fallen below $600,000, showed their true colours in Round 4.
Studying the form, fixture and past performances can help determine when a player whose scoring has been below-par is about to turn their form.
While it’s a tall order to upgrade to one of this trio from a rookie, if you’re sitting on an underperforming mid-pricer, KFC SuperCoach’s value premiums should be in your thoughts.
TOP TARGETS
Jordan Ridley $410,100 DEF, Avg: 109.3 BE: 9
The value option if you’re looking for a defender with the capacity to score about 100 points each week. His form this year has been faultless — scoring 100, 94 and 134 in his three games after being the Bombers’ top-scorer in the Marsh Series. He has increased in value by almost $90,000 but is still very affordable, and is projected to gain another $37k after his next game. The query is he has played only 12 games so we are backing him in to do something he’s never done before. But if there’s ever a year to throw caution to the wind, it’s 2020. If you’re feeling really brave Giant Aidan Corr ($300,200 DEF) has scored triple figures in his past two games (after averaging about 50 over the first seven years of his career) and Cat Jake Kolodjashnij ($397,600 DEF) scored 115 last week as he stepped up after Stewart’s injury. But that is his only game for 2020 so far, and he averaged 53, 57, 59 and 55 over the past four seasons. It could pay off, but buyer beware!
Shannon Hurn $528,600 DEF Avg: 100 BE: 130
After a monster 152 in Round 1, Hurn hasn’t scored 90 since. The Eagles defender has totals of 73, 89 and 86 in the past three rounds and has fallen by more than $30,000 from his starting price. KFC SuperCoaches will be watching his price with interest in coming weeks with West Coast poised to return to Western Australia for an extended stint of home games. Hurn averaged 101.7 in 11 matches at Perth Stadium last season. Click here for more trade options in defence including Magpie Brayden Maynard.
Stephen Hill $190,600 DEF-FWD Avg: 73 BE: 2
The oft-injured veteran made a long-awaited return for Fremantle against Gold Coast and those who took the punt would have been salivating when he tallied 54 points to quarter-time. Hill slowed considerably from that point, only scoring another 19 points for the rest of the game. But it was an encouraging return considering he only played three games last year and 13 in 2018. Beware of a Harley Bennell-style rest at some point, but he has proven scoring potential — averaging at least 80 in six previous seasons — and shapes as a cheap replacement for missing defenders who should produce a decent score.
Tom Mitchell $594,500 MID Avg: 113.3 BE: 104
The Brownlow medallist bounced back in a big way in Round 4, producing his second KFC SuperCoach ton of the season and best score since Round 20, 2018 with 143 against North Melbourne. Mitchell was heavily involved in the end of a close match which launched his total towards 150 after he appeared likely to post a score closer to 100. He hasn’t scored less than 95 and won’t fall in price much further.
Marcus Bontempelli $575,900 MID Average: 108.3 BE: 69
The Western Bulldogs captain posted his first hundred of the season against Sydney, returning to form in spectacular fashion with a score of 166. He showcased his ability to rack up points at will in the first half, recording 111 KFC SuperCoach points to halftime. A further 55 points in the last two quarters despite being closely monitored by Callum Mills was encouraging. His break even of 69 will ensure this is as cheap as Bontempelli gets.
Patrick Dangerfield $559,400 MID Avg: 99.8 BE: 108
Dangerfield provided those who traded him in ahead of Round 2 to capitalise on his GMHBA Stadium run welcome relief with a score of 140 against Melbourne. He’s not a must-grab this week, but be prepared to possibly pay an extra $10,000-$15,000 if you hold off. The Cats are due to face Gold Coast this weekend and while the Suns are vastly-improved, Dangerfield has dominated against them in past encounters.
Josh Kelly $595,200 MID Avg: 103.7 BE: 134
Another player who returned to close to his best in Round 4, posting 120 points in the Giants’ victory over Collingwood. He had 21 disposals and boosted his score to a season-high total with six tackles. If you’re hoping to get him at his cheapest quote, hold off at least a week. You might even snag a bargain in Round 5 if he gets closer to $550,000.
Stephen Coniglio $521,600 MID Avg: 90.3 BE: 165
How can the GWS skipper be a target after scoring 49 against Collingwood? Coniglio is a player to put on your trade radar, rather than target this week. If a player of his quality drops below $500,000, he will be almost impossible to resist. Coniglio is too good to be down for long and the experiment to use him as a defensive forward clearly didn’t work.
Jack Macrae $606,600 MID Avg: 105.3 BE: 125
Macrae has been a bit of a disappointment for those who paid over $660k for him but he should be on the radar of every other KFC SuperCoach player after averaging over 123 for the past two seasons. Lachie Hunter’s looming return should see him return to the centre square full-time. He copped a heavy tag against the Swans and still scored 92.
Dustin Martin $530,500 FWD/MID Avg: 95.3 BE: 146
Dusty looked a shadow of the player who scored 126 in Round 1 against the Saints and looms as a juicy target for the 48 per cent of teams that didn’t start with him, or traded him out when he missed the Tigers’ loss to Hawthorn. If he produces a similar score against the Dees on Sunday – a possibility if he’s not 100 per cent right – you might be able to snap him up for under $500k.
Rory Laird $487,800 DEF Avg: 88.3 BE: 88
If there is one Adelaide player who could benefit from the Crows’ tumble down the ladder, it is the dependable small defender. In a year when the top backmen are harder to predict than ever, you could do a lot worse with $487k. He’s unlikely to get much cheaper, which makes him an ideal replacement for Jeremy Howe – a move that would net a $50k profit.
Lachie Whitfield $483,800 FWD-MID Avg: 74.8 BE: 186
Don’t jump on yet! Whitfield is the classic ‘watch and act’ in KFC SuperCoach terms as we monitor that huge break-even. If he scores less than that his price will fall, and will keep falling until his BE drops which could take another 2-3 weeks. By that time you might be able to get a genuine SuperCoach stud for close to $200k cheaper than his starting price.
Toby Greene $477,900 FWD Avg: 83.7 BE: 133
Whitfield’s teammate has dropped more than $30k from his starting price and will be even cheaper unless he can score 133 against Hawthorn. He has scored over 95 in two of his three games, dropping a 47 in the Giants’ surprise loss to North Melbourne. It’s a crowded field but he’s a good shot of being in the top-six forwards at the end of the year, which is a great result if you buy him for about $450k. One easy area of improvement is fixing his free kick stats – so far this season he has given away six and received none.
Tim Kelly $508,400 MID Avg: 88.5 BE: 130
Kelly left Geelong to be closer to his family, then had to uproot and move to a Gold Coast hub – hardly ideal. His scoring hasn’t been terrible, with two tons from four games, without hitting the heights we know he’s capable of. If the Eagles snap out of their funk when they return home for a lengthy stay in a Perth hub, expect Kelly to lead the charge.
ROOKIE ADVICE: HOW DO OUR EXPERTS RATE ROUND 5 CASH COWS?
Caleb Serong $175,800 MID Avg: 71 BE: -2
The No. 8 pick from last year’s national draft made a strong impression on debut with 12 possessions and five tackles against Gold Coast. Most encouragingly, Serong attended 10 centre bounces in only 70 per cent game time and he could be the beneficiary of Nat Fyfe’s hamstring injury. Serong was the second-ranked player in last year’s Under-18 national carnival, behind only Brownlow Medal contender Matthew Rowell. That speaks for itself after Rowell’s awe-inspiring start to his AFL career.
Caleb Serong was the 7th ranked player on the ground after Fyfe went off injured last round. Serong won a game-high 10 disposals in that time. #SuperCoach
— Fantasy Freako (@FantasyFreako) July 1, 2020
And one for the really adventurous …
Jack Riewoldt $269,100 FWD Avg: 40.8 BE: 84
That price isn’t a misprint. Riewoldt — who was cheap to start with — has lost almost $100k in value over the past two weeks and is now in expensive rookie territory. He is clearly out of form, but is it worth rolling the dice at that insane price? A couple of case studies to consider: (A) In 2018 Riewoldt’s price dropped to $324k after an injury-impacted score of 3 mid-season. He averaged 115 for the rest of the year, including a 219. (B) Jack Darling’s start to last season included scores of 9 and 22 in Rounds 5-6, and his price slumped to close to $300k as a result. The next week he scored 132 and while the rest of the year was a bit of a rollercoaster, he was worth almost $500k by Round 23.
MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
Best KFC SuperCoach replacements for injured Collingwood star Jeremy Howe
Doctor’s Orders: Top KFC SuperCoach trade targets in WA hub
KFC SuperCoach 2020: Our predictions for the top six players on every line
KFC SuperCoach: Fantasy Freako breaks down the key numbers of Round 4
Melbourne captain Max Gawn closing in on $800,000 mark
CHOPPING BLOCK
Jack Viney $523,600 MID Avg: 121 BE: 125
Nat Fyfe $670,500 MID Avg: 122.5 BE: 150
Jeremy Howe $536,700 DEF Avg: 120.5 BE: 110
Tom Stewart $498,000 DEF Avg: 80.3 BE: 185
Sam Naismith $296,800 RUC Avg: 100 BE: -29
Connor Rozee $462,100 FWD Avg: 88.3 BE: 18
Max King $219,400 FWD Avg: 53.3 BE: 33
Curtis Taylor $242,600 FWD Avg: 64.5 BE: 39
GOING DOWN?
Lachie Whitfield $483,800 FWD-MID Avg: 74.8 BE: 186 Price change: -$53,700
Dane Rampe $502,900 DEF Avg: 85.3 BE: 184 Price change: -$21,100
Connor Rozee $462,100 FWD Avg: 88.3 BE: 184 Price change: -$23,300
Stephen Coniglio $521,600 MID Avg: 90.3 BE: 165 Price change: -$32,600
Brodie Grundy $686,100 RUC Avg: 133 BE: 158 Price change: -$25,900
Elliot Yeo $495,500 MID Avg: 74.3 BE: 156 Price change: -$27,700
Patrick Cripps $608,700 MID Avg: 108.3 BE: 147 Price change: -$18,100
Dustin Martin $530,500 FWD-MID Avg: 95.3 BE: 146 Price change: -$12,100
Bachar Houli $553,200 DEF Avg: 96.3 BE: 141 Price change: -$18,200
Jake Lloyd $589,000 DEF Avg: 106.3 BE: 137
Josh Kelly $595,200 MID Avg: 103.7 BE: 134 Price change: -$19,600
Toby Greene $477,900 FWD Avg: 83.7 BE: 133 Price change: -$14,900
Shannon Hurn $528,600 DEF Avg: 100 BE: 130 Price change: -$34,300
Tim Kelly $508,400 MID Avg: 88.5 BE: 130 Price change: -$15,200
Jack Viney $523,600 MID Avg: 121 BE: 125
KEY BREAKEVENS
Premiums ($500,000 or more)
Sam Docherty DEF Avg: 129.3 $541,200 BE: 5 Projected price rise: +$58,100
Hugh McCluggage $535,000 MID Avg: 111.8 BE: 13 Projected price rise: +$30,700
Jy Simpkin $520,900 FWD-MID Avg: 123.5 BE: 41 Projected price rise: +$27,900
Brayden Maynard $517,400 DEF Avg: 113 BE: 55 Projected price rise: +$21,800
James Sicily $523,400 DEF Avg: 102 BE: 60 Projected price rise: +$24,200
Caleb Daniel $540,500 DEF Avg: 105.8 BE: 64 Projected price rise: +$19,800
Jack Crisp $508,600 DEF Avg: 99.8 BE: 64 Projected price rise: +$13,200
Marcus Bontempelli $575,900 MID Avg: 108.3 BE: 69 Projected price rise: +$20,900
Patrick Dangerfield $559,400 MID Avg: 99.8 BE: 108 Projected price rise: +$4600
Mid-pricers ($250,000-$500,000)
Charlie Dixon $406,600 FWD Avg: 105.3 BE: -19 Projected price rise: +$60,600
Aidan Corr $330,200 DEF Avg: 82.5 BE: -15 Projected price rise: +$45,900
Dan Butler $415,300 FWD Avg: 106.5 BE: -2 Projected price rise: +$54,300
Marc Pittonet $398,400 RUC Avg: 121.7 BE: -1 Projected price rise: +$45,300
Jake Kolodjashnij $297,600 DEF Avg: 115 BE: 2 Projected price rise: +$20,700
Jarrod Berry $488,800 MID Avg: 102 BE: 5 Projected price rise: +$40,800
Tim English $470,200 RUC Avg: 99 BE: 6 Projected price rise: +$38,900
Jordan Ridley $410,100 DEF Avg: 109.3 BE: 9 Projected price rise: +$37,800
Darcy Fort $287,600 FWD Avg: 77.5 BE: 11 Projected price rise: +$22,400
Brandon Starcevich $283,800 DEF-MID Avg: 70 BE: 11 Projected price rise: +$23,400
Tom Doedee $307,900 DEF Avg: 66.7 BE: 17 Projected price rise: +$20,300
John Noble $266,000 DEF Avg: 62.8 BE: 17 Projected price rise: +$20,800
Brett Bewley $333,100 FWD Avg: 80.3 BE: 18 Projected price rise: +$25,400
Chad Wingard $482,600 FWD-MID Avg: 112.3 BE: 20 Projected price rise: +$35,700
Matthew Rowell $478,300 MID Avg: 126.5 BE: 21 Projected price rise: +$47,500
Toby Nankervis $427,700 RUC Avg: 105.5 BE: 36 Projected price rise: +$20,300
Jayden Short $425,100 DEF Avg: 93 BE: 37 Projected price rise: +$17,800
Brodie Smith $430,600 DEF Avg: 77.8 BE: 48 Projected price rise: +$13,700
Adam Saad $495,500 DEF Avg: 113.7 BE: 55 Projected price rise: +$16,200
Rookies (Under $250,000)
Tom Williamson $178,300 DEF Avg: 64.5 BE: -26 Projected price rise: +$32,300
Hayden Young $223,300 DEF Avg: 63.7 BE: -21 Projected price rise: +$38,100
Tom Green $197,900 MID Avg: 67.5 BE: -21 Projected price rise: +$39,800
Kyron Hayden $162,900 MID Avg: 45 BE: -15 Projected price rise: +$24,100
Trent Rivers $139,200 DEF-MID Avg: 47.5 BE: -15 Projected price rise: +$28,100
Harley Bennell $123,900 MID Avg: 59 BE: -11 Projected price rise: +$30,600
Laitham Vandermeer $176,500 FWD-MID Avg: 51.3 BE: -10 Projected price rise: +$27,400
Tristan Xerri $123,900 RUC-FWD Avg: 54 BE: -6 Projected price rise: +$26,500
Kozzie Pickett $178,400 FWD Avg: 54 BE: -5 Projected price rise: +$26,400
Jack Mahony $117,300 FWD-MID Avg: 50 BE: -3 Projected price rise: +$24,100
Caleb Serong $175,800 MID Avg: 71 BE: -2 Projected price rise: +$32,700
Justin McInerney $210,200 MID Avg: 67.7 BE: -1 Projected price rise: +$22,200
Connor Budarick $221,800 FWD-MID Avg: 58.3 BE: 1 Projected price rise: +$25,600
Tyler Brown $220,800 MID Avg: 58 BE: 2 Projected price rise: +$24,900
Stephen Hill $190,600 DEF-FWD Avg: 73 BE: 2 Projected price rise: +$18,000
Jarrod Brander $235,200 DEF-FWD Avg: 60.3 BE: 12 Projected price rise: +$19,400
Max King $219,400 FWD Avg: 53.3 BE: 33 Projected price rise: +$9200
Curtis Taylor $242,600 FWD Avg: 64.5 BE: 39 Projected price rise: +$7600
Biggest ownership changes*
Stephen Hill +3.1% of teams
Jordan Ridley +2.9%
Jy Simpkin +2.8%
Brayden Maynard +2.6%
Sam Docherty +1.7%
Tom Mitchell +1.6%
Marc Pittonet +1.5%
Lachie Neale +1.4%
Chad Wingard +1.3%
Adam Saad +1.1%
Marcus Bontempelli +1.1%
Tom Green +1.1%
Jeremy Howe -11.2%
Nat Fyfe -6.7%
Tom Stewart -2.0%
Sam Naismith -1.8%
Marlion Pickett -1.8%
Sam Jacobs -1.5%
Stephen Coniglio -1.1%
Sam Sturt -0.6%
Max King -0.6%
Curtis Taylor -0.6%
Brandon Zerk-Thatcher -0.6%
*Ownership stats current as of 12pm Wednesday.
NEW PODCAST@mattturner1986, @antimoiannella and I discuss the Round 5 #SuperCoach trade options, POD replacements, Jordan Ridley’s value, Hipster’s weekend disaster & much more
— The Phantom (@ThePhantomSC) June 29, 2020
+ @FantasyFreako on Coniglio, Saad and Macraehttps://t.co/h3Q4Rr8VDE
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