KFC SuperCoach: The best rookie options ahead of Round 5
Two popular rookies in John Noble and Jarrod Brander have been dumped putting KFC SuperCoach sides under strain. Should we give them another chance, or trade? Plus, the best Round 5 rookie options.
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It’s unusual to be contemplating KFC SuperCoach rookie downgrades after Round 5.
With the luxury of two-week price rises in this shortened season, our cash cows are fattening up at a more rapid rate, giving us the opportunity to nab premiums faster.
However, owners of Jeremy Howe and Nat Fyfe will have more pressing issues at hand and getting at least one premium in should take priority.
While the rookie well was pretty dry last week, there’s a myriad of promising cheapie options available this week, headlined by Rising Star nominee Tom Green and veteran cheapie Stephen Hill.
It means jumping off a rookie a week early could prove worthwhile, especially if it allows you to acquire a premium cheaply.
Popular rookies Jarrod Brander (injured) and John Noble (omitted) have been axed ahead of Round 5 while Marlion Pickett, Sam Sturt Trent Rivers and Will Hamill could be cut following Sunday teams.
Here are the best rookie options.
DAN BATEN’S ROUND 5 ROOKIE RATINGS
1. Stephen Hill (Frem) $190,600 FWD/DEF, Ave: 73 BE: 2
Hill burst out of the blocks with a formidable 53-point first quarter but slowed considerably from there, failing to record another disposal until the third term. It’s no surprise Hill ran out of petrol tickets given his injury woes, but the opportunity to nab a player of his ilk for this price shouldn’t be sniffed at. Hill went at 86 per cent by foot against the Suns, winning seven intercept possessions and taking three intercept marks. His DEF/FWD status is an added bonus and gives your side great flexibility.
2. Caleb Serong (Frem) $175,800 MID, Ave: 71 BE: -2
There is a reasonable case that Serong’s short-term output will be better than Green, who was taken two selections before the Giants youngster in the 2019 draft. The dynamic midfielder/forward attended six out of 14 centre bounces while Nat Fyfe was on the field last weekend, but this dramatically changed after his captain’s injury. Serong was stationed in four centre bounces (equal-second behind Michael Walters) after Fyfe’s injury, posting an impressive 71 points. With Fyfe expected to miss at least the next fortnight, Serong shapes as a cash cow with plenty of upside.
3. Tom Green (GWS) $197,900 MID, Ave: 67.5 BE: -21
Green’s 94-point showing earned him plaudits from throughout the football industry, getting the Round 4 Rising Star nod for his efforts. Contested ball-winning is his modus operandi, with 12 of his 18 disposals in Round 4 won in a contest, and his centre bounce action bodes well for his scoring, even if he spent just 67 per cent time on ground on Friday night. His -21 break-even makes him worth targeting, despite having added $31,100 last week. However, injured ball-winner Tim Taranto is expected to return in the next 2-3 weeks and could take his spot.
4. Tristan Xerri (NM) $123,900 FWD/RUCK, Ave: 54 BE: -6
Xerri spent time up forward and in the ruck in his debut, winning two hitouts-to-advantage, laying three tackles and managing to win a clearance. His 54-point score was helped by a crucial goal late in the piece, so he could be prone to a stinker. Xerri’s spot in the side could also come under question in the coming weeks if the Roos decide to play small. Even so, he can become a handy emergency loophole option. A trade from Sam Naismith to him will net you $170,000.
5. Jack Mahony (NM) $123,900 FWD/MID, Ave: 50 BE: -4
The small forward had just the one kick in his first game as a Roo but managed a solid score of 50 points after winning five contested possessions from his eight disposals. The nippy youngster spent just 59 per cent of game time on the ground, which means he could be squeezed out of the team this week.
WHERE IS HARLEY BENNELL?
Harley Bennell was supposed to be one of this year’s best KFC SuperCoach cash cows.
Yet weeks after an impressive debut — where he scored 59 points in 50 per cent game time — Melbourne’s comeback kid hasn’t featured again.
Bennell was named for Melbourne’s postponed game against Essendon, played in a scratch match that weekend but was then left out for Round 4.
ULTIMATE TRADE GUIDE: THE BEST MOVES OF ROUND 5
The first-year Demon features in more than 44,000 KFC SuperCoach teams, who will be desperate to know whether he’s going to generate the value they expected.
Speaking on Thursday, Melbourne coach Simon Goodwin hinted Bennell would miss selection again for Round 5.
“We have spoken to Harley. He’s still building his ability to run at the right intensity for long enough,” Goodwin said.
“On the weekend that was much improved. Especially on the offensive side of the ball.
“We are continuing to work on him around certainly his contests and his defensive elements of the game that’s required within his role.
“But he’s missed a lot of footy. So our expectation is he’s not going to be perfect in that space.
“He does bring something unique to our team.”
TRADE OR HOLD?
So which rookies should we give the flick? Monitoring break-evens and recent scores is the trusted formula, but there’s nothing more inevitable than rookies pulling a big score out of the bag the week you trade them out.
John Noble (Coll) $266,000 DEF, BE: 17
DB: HOLD.... if you can manage it. Noble’s axing was a shock after back-to-back 60-plus scores and he still has cash to make. Could just be a week on the sidelines.
TM: TRADE - unless he’s a late in. It is meant to rain on Friday in Melbourne. His omission couldn’t have come at a worse time with Jarrod Brander injured to compound Jeremy Howe and Tom Stewart being out.
AP: TRADE. Collingwood’s backline is getting a total makeover and Noble isn’t part of it, so we might not see him again for a while. You can make $76k by trading him to Stephen Hill.
TP: TRADE. A breakeven of 17 suggests he still has money to make, but, after his omission, it might not be for a while. So, in a short season, he may have done his job. Take the $76k and go to Hill.
Jarrod Brander $235,200 DEF/FWD, BE: 12
DB: TRADE. A hip injury could mean a week or two out and you’d say Noble is a more reliable scorer.
TM: HOLD. His DPP gives you plenty of trade options and his scoring hasn’t been awful. Ideally, he’d be providing bench cover.
AP: HOLD. With limited information on his injury I’m putting him at the bottom of my (long) list of defenders to deal with this week. His break-even is still low (12) so he has more money to make if he comes back soon. DPP also handy with Hill coming in.
TP: HOLD. Out with a hip injury this round but that’s all we know so far. With a number of other issues to deal with, I’ll reassess next week. His DPP may still come in handy.
Matt Rowell (GC) $478,300 MID, BE: 21
Dan Batten: Don’t. Even. Think about it.
Tim Michell: HOLD. SuperCoach nemesis Chris Scott has flagged he might tag Rowell this weekend. That shouldn’t effect your trade plans. The No.1 draft pick looks a keeper at M7 or M8.
Al Paton: HOLD. Might be a season-long keeper.
The Phantom: TRADE yourself if you even contemplate moving him on.
Marlion Pickett (Rich) $201,500 MID, BE: 29
DB: HOLD. If you recall, he scored fairly well in last year’s Grand Final and he should return in the coming weeks. Every game will be a GF for Richmond soon.
TM: HOLD. He had nine tackles in a scratch match against St Kilda and will at least be in the mix after Richmond was soundly beaten by the Saints. It’s a hold as long as he’s named.
AP: HOLD. Good chance to return for the Tigers soon and we know he can score.
TP: TRADE. It won’t make you a lot of money, but swapping him with Tom Green, after his performance last week, is one to consider. Especially given the violate rookie scores in the midfield.
Sam Sturt (Frem) $152,200 FWD, BE; -23
DB: HOLD. Could return sooner than expected and his break-even is still extremely low.
TM: HOLD. He’s an outside chance to play this week and has a break-even of -23.
AP: HOLD. It’s not worth cashing in on a $30k profit when he could make a lot more.
TP: HOLD. If you kept him last week, despite the initial outlook of a month on the sidelines, it’s your lucky day. Sturt is a chance to play against the Crows on Sunday.
Justin McInerney (Syd) $210,200 MID, BE: -1
DB: HOLD. Had some time on the ball against the Dogs and seems to be a reasonably trustworthy on-field option.
TM: HOLD. Surely he gets an extended run in the Swans team after he was one of their better players against the Bulldogs. With a break even of -1 he’ll be in your team for at least the next month.
AP: HOLD. I’m confident starting him on the field.
TP: HOLD. He still has a negative break-even and was impressive in defence for the Swans last week.
Tyler Brown (Coll) $220,800 MID, BE: 2
DB: HOLD. He looked to be gone but Steele Sidebottom’s alleged COVID-19 breach could save him.
TM: TRADE. The alarm bells are ringing after a quiet game against GWS. Adam Treloar will return this week and he’s likely to be squeezed out. If it ensures you field a full team, trade him to Harley Bennell, Trent Rivers or Stephen Hill via DPP.
AP: HOLD … if he’s picked. He can still make more money. Wouldn’t blame people for trading him out though if he’s dropped.
TP: HOLD. I was expecting more last week after the tall midfielder’s 80 points in Round 3. But that’s SuperCoach rookies for you. He still has money to make.
Brandon Starcevich (Bris) $283,800 DEF/MID, BE: 11
DB: HOLD. Has plenty more cash in him yet and his scoring has rivalled some premium defenders.
TM: HOLD. He looked on track for another 80-plus score before hitting a wall in the second half against Adelaide. Starcevich has already made more than $136,000 and will appreciate in value for another 2-3 weeks.
AP: HOLD. Clearly the best-scoring defensive rookie. Wish I picked him.
TP: HOLD. Big first half against the Crows before slowing to finish with 64 points. But he still added another $53k to his price tag, which will rise by another $25k with a similar score this week.
Curtis Taylor (NM) $242,600 FWD, BE: 39
DB: HOLD. Produced two 70-plus scores in his first two games but if he doesn’t deliver this week, it’s time to turn Taylor into a premium.
TM: TRADE. Another rookie who could be in the gun this week. Taylor has a break-even of 39 and scores of 57 and 44 in the past two weeks. Can’t see him making much more cash.
AP: HOLD … just. If he can get a 70 this week the only Curtis in the AFL will make money for a little longer, but nearly at the end of his run.
TP: TRADE. After scores of 44 and 57 in the past two weeks, Taylor’s Round 5 break-even of 39 is a concern. But options are limited unless you can work a dual-position swing.
Max King (StK) $219,400 FWD, BE: 33
DB: HOLD. A bag from the Saints’ prized youngster is coming, and it’ll set his appreciation into motion.
TM: HOLD. The Saints flagged they’d rest King at some point and it feels like that could be coming – even as soon as this week. He was never going to be a high scorer but he’s in St Kilda’s best team and 40-50 points are better than a doughnut (in KFC SuperCoach at least).
AP: HOLD. Just needs one three-goal game to spike his price.
TP: TRADE/HOLD. While he is yet to pass three figures in terms of cash generation – like Taylor – King’s break-even of 33 is also very close to his Round 4 score of 43.
Darcy Cameron $147,700 RUCK/FWD, BE: -16
DB: TRADE. If you are still fielding one of Curtis Taylor and Max King, trading Cameron to Stephen Hill could help boost your output. Unlikely to find his way back in even with Mason Cox playing poorly in his return.
TM: HOLD. Why would you trade him after one price rise? He might get another run this week after Mason Cox struggled against the Giants.
AP: TRADE. Seems very much a back-up to Mason Cox. A swap to Stephen Hill has appeal.
TP: TRADE. He’s behind Mason Cox at the Magpies. I think.
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