KFC SuperCoach Round 12 burning questions: Best James Sicily replacements
Who should almost 50,000 KFC SuperCoaches pick to replace injured Hawk James Sicily? Champion Data expert Fantasy Freako reveals the key stats to guide your trade moves and the players to target, including one you may not have thought of.
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More than 44,000 SuperCoaches have a huge problem on their hands after James Sicily went down with a knee injury in the final minutes of Sunday’s loss to West Coast.
The Hawks’ worst fears were confirmed on Monday when scans revealed Sicily has ruptured his ACL, ruling him out for the next 12 months.
Sicily owners have to make a trade, but with so many options who will you put your faith in for the final seven rounds?
Here’s the inside word from Champion Data’s expert Fantasy Freako — scroll down for our take on 10 Sicily replacements and more burning KFC SuperCoach questions.
FANTASY FREAKO: INTERCEPT KINGS ARE TOP TRADE TARGETS
Luck plays a major part in KFC SuperCoach. After having a pick of any defender in the competition ahead of Round 11 as a trade-in target, I opted for James Sicily as he had already served his bye. He was in great form as well, averaging 133 in his previous four matches. He also complemented my attacking defence nicely, as I already boasted the likes of Jake Lloyd, Caleb Daniel and Tom Stewart.
Fast-forward two weeks and I’m already searching for a replacement after Sicily’s season was cruelly cut short by a serious knee injury. I’m not alone — almost 45,000 SuperCoaches will have to replace him this week on the back of a $63k price drop in the past two rounds.
Searching for a replacement, there are plenty of viable candidates – led by the accumulator Jake Lloyd. The Sydney star ranks ninth in the competition for points per game, he’s one of just six players in the AFL to reach 100 points in 10 matches. He ticks every box. He plays on from every kick in, always looks for a handball-receive, while he also has the ability to win the ball back via an intercept, one of the highest-scoring plays in KFC SuperCoach.
Lloyd ranks second in the AFL for intercept possessions per game since Round 8 with nine. If you have the money, he’s by far the No.1 target.
The No.1 intercept possession player in that time is Luke Ryan with an average of 10.8. After starting the season with a dismal 52 points, he hasn’t looked back since – dropping below 100 points just twice. He’s also coming off a career-high 162-point haul, which has taken his price to $582,200. That makes him the second-most expensive defender in the competition. Ryan comes up against the Swans this round though and is unlikely to have it all his own way. There is a chance he attracts a defensive tag from Will Hayward, who played that role successfully on Nick Haynes, effectively cutting out his intercept game. That doesn’t make Ryan a bad option, but keep that in the back of your mind before committing to him.
Nick Vlastuin rounds out the top-three for intercept possessions over the past five rounds with an average of 8.8. He often goes unnoticed in KFC SuperCoach and his low ownership of just 2293 is testament to that. He may not have the ceiling of a Lloyd or Ryan, but he does have consistency – scoring between 100-110 points in six games. Vlastuin also comes in a lot cheaper than both Lloyd and Ryan.
Other players that rank high for intercepts over this period and are worth considering are Haynes, Brayden Maynard, Jordan Ridley and Zac Williams. Williams is almost $65k cheaper than his starting price, and is coming off three consecutive tons since returning from injury in Round 9. His durability is an obvious drawback however, missing a total of 29 matches through injury since 2017.
A left-field option is Bachar Houli. He’s set to return to the Richmond side after a seven-week lay-off and is over $40k cheaper than his starting price. I expect him to hit the ground running. He also boasts an excellent recent scoring record against his three upcoming opponents – posting 142, 145, and 106 points in that order in his previous matches against each.
LEADING AFL INTERCEPTORS R8-12
Luke Ryan (Frem) $582,200 DEF - 10.8
Jake Lloyd (Syd) $636,900 - 9.0
Nick Vlastuin (Rich) $457,200 - 8.8
Sam Collins (GC) $418,200 - 8.2
Brennan Cox (Frem) $390,200 - 7.0
Darcy Moore (Coll) $405,200 - 6.8
Brayden Maynard (Coll) $491,400 - 6.6
Jack Bowes (GC) $426,400 - 6.6
Jake Lever (Melb) $429,300 - 6.4
Luke McDonald (NM) $513,800 - 6.2
Nick Haynes (GWS) $526,800 - 6.2
Sam Frost (Haw) $295,000 - 6.2
Charlie Ballard (GC) $257,700 - 6.0
Jack Madgen (Coll) $349,600 - 6.0
Zac Williams (GWS) $487,200 - 6.0
Jordan Ridley (Ess) $505,000 - 5.8
* average per game. Source: Champion Data
DEFENDERS: TOP GUNS
LUKE RYAN (FREMANTLE)
If you’ve got the money spare, Ryan should still be your No.1 target after stringing together seven consecutive tons including a season-high 162 against Carlton. A great intercept mark who takes all Fremantle’s kick-ins, the star Docker also won’t have a bye in the last six rounds of the season.
Sicily to Ryan R12 Bank: +48k
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) August 16, 2020
Sicily to Ryan R13. Will cost approx 44k.
90k+ swing#supercoach https://t.co/KVMLzsFRN3
JAKE LLOYD (SYDNEY)
The No.1 scorer in defence is likely to claim the title again at the end of the season for the third straight year. KFC SuperCoach players who jumped off after a 77 in Round 1 have one of the biggest regrets of the season — he hasn’t gone under 100 since and has a four-round average of 138. Also bye-free from here but he won’t come cheap — you’ll need about $80k in the bank to upgrade to him from Sicily.
NICK HAYNES (GWS)
One of the KFC SuperCoach finds of 2020 picked a good time to drop his lowest score of the season if you don’t already have him. A 67 against the Swans will result in a drop in value to about $528k, making him just about a straight swap from Sicily. Prior to Round 12 he had scored under 97 only once this year, but he doesn’t have the high ceiling of Ryan and Lloyd with just two 120-plus scores.
ZAC WILLIAMS (GWS)
A popular pick before Round 12 coming off the Giants’ bye, Williams is still very attractively priced at well under $500k after a third-straight ton (112, 105, 111). The worry with Williams is his durability — he has a history of soft-tissue problems and with trades running low we really need players who will get through the last seven rounds unscathed.
RORY LAIRD (ADELAIDE)
A move to the midfield has put Laird back on the radar, but he couldn’t back up his incredible 185 from Round 11 on Sunday, scoring just 77 points as the Dogs onballers ran amok. Still, he’s a proven scorer and we have seen what he’s capable of.
DEFENDERS: UNIQUE PICKS
BACHAR HOULI (RICHMOND)
Remember him? Houli had the third-highest average of all defenders last season and is set to play in Richmond’s next game against Essendon after flying to Queensland following the birth of his son. It would be a brave move but could pay off in a big way — you’ll be the only one who has him and the Tigers have a favourable run home; over his final seven games last year Houli averaged 116 points, and he netted 142 last time he faced the Bombers. Priced at $528,400 and yet to have a bye, but we should have cover in Round 16 when only the Tigers and Pies have the week off.
ADAM SAAD (ESSENDON)
One of the unsung stars of 2020, Saad is averaging 99 points a game and has dropped under 80 only once. That game, in Round 9, resulted in a timely price drop and you can get him for about $470k. Currently in 8 per cent of teams and he has already had his bye.
LUKE McDONALD (NORTH MELBOURNE)
Everyone loves a POD and McDonald definitely fits the bill — he is in just 1 per cent of teams. We wouldn’t have looked at him over the first seven rounds when he was averaging 62 points but since then he has exploded with four scores of 119 or better (and a 95) as he plays the Jake Lloyd role to perfection. You could have got him for $350k a month ago, now he will cost over $500k.
ALEX WITHERDEN (BRISBANE LIONS)
The Lions defender looked a star in the making when he averaged 87 in his first season (2017). He didn’t improve on that over the next two seasons and had to wait until Round 9 to get a game this year, but he made a huge statement in that game, scoring 170 against Essendon. He has backed that up with returns of 85, 100 and 101 as he rakes in points from Lions kick-ins. In just 3 per cent of teams and very affordable at $475k, but is one of The Phantom’s favourites definitely part of Chris Fagan’s best 22?
JACKSON THURLOW (SYDNEY)
Now we’re really getting creative. If you desperately need money to fix other parts of your team and are prepared to take a risk, Thurlow has scored 118 and 90 since returning to the Swans line-up and will be available for about $350k. He’s also in just 350 teams.
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MORE KFC SUPERCOACH BURNING QUESTIONS ...
WHERE’S THE LOVE FOR TOMAHAWK?
Key forwards are supposed to be KFC SuperCoach kryptonite.
Yet almost every year, Tom Hawkins comes with a bullet.
The Geelong spearhead was the third-ranked forward for overall points (1116) after Round 11, behind only Christian Petracca (1227) and Hugh Greenwood (1140).
That put him in bargain territory at only $499,700 after rising $11,300 following a score of 126 against St Kilda.
Hawkins was herculean against Port Adelaide on Friday, scoring his third consecutive KFC SuperCoach ton and joining the game’s hall of fame with a score of 204.
The 32-year-old has five scores of 115 points or higher, four of 120 or better and six tons from 12 games this season.
Despite this, he featured in only 3057 teams.
Of the top-10 forwards of 2020, only Charlie Dixon and Zak Butters are in less KFC SuperCoach teams.
Every KFC SuperCoach can be a genius in hindsight, but how good would it have been to choose Hawkins instead of Michael Walters (60) or Andrew Brayshaw (67)?
Hawkins is projected to surge to $565k ahead of a clash with bottom side Adelaide in Round 13.
His Round 15 bye needs to be a factor when considering a trade, but if you’re well placed for the six-team bye round then Hawkins looms as a serious POD.
Welcome to the 2ï¸âƒ£0ï¸âƒ£0ï¸âƒ£ club! pic.twitter.com/6lNdM5aa00
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) August 14, 2020
HAS THE TIME COME TO TRADE VINEY?
Feel like it’s groundhog day? Thousands of coaches traded Melbourne midfielder Jack Viney after he scored 60 in Round 5 and shed $30,100. Viney was $523,600 before that score and subsequent price fall. Before his 69 against Collingwood, Viney was $522,600. He is projected to drop by $25k ahead of Round 13. That makes it difficult to turn him into a top premium such as his teammate Clayton Oliver, as an upgrade would cost about $200,000. But the temptation is certainty there to trade Viney ahead of a series of ‘best 18’ rounds. The word of warning is he bounced back with consecutive scores of 120+ after his last 60 and won’t have a bye. Those are both factors in his favour.
IS ANGUS BRAYSHAW BACK?
There has been shades of the 2018 surge from Brayshaw in the past three rounds, when he has posted 91, 113 and 131. There was sense in holding off on trading him in ahead of Round 13 to assess how Viney’s return would impact his scoring and centre bounce attendances. Brayshaw still attended 73 per cent of centre bounces with Viney in the Demons’ side and had 23 disposals and seven marks against the Magpies. A Viney to Brayshaw trade would net about $70k …
Round 12 #supercoach Price Projection* - Angus Brayshaw
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) August 15, 2020
StartPrice $452k
2019Av 83
2020Scores 71/83//114/76/44/71/49/56/91/113
R12Price $368k
R12BE 18
R12Score 123
R12:$368k->$415k($47k)NewBE 16
ProjScore 105
R13:$415k->$456k($40k)NewBE 49
R14:$456k->$481k($25k)NewBE 83
*approx https://t.co/LZo9m7wuk1
WHAT’S THE PERFECT SCORE FOR A VC LOOPHOLE?
Not sure even the top-ranked KFC SuperCoaches have a perfect answer to this. It was a key question for teams in Round 12 after Lachie Neale scored 134 against North Melbourne. In an average season any score above 125-130 is enough to trigger the vice-captaincy loophole, but big guns such as Neale and Jack Macrae have been scoring well beyond that this year. Macrae managed 118 against winless Adelaide on Sunday despite Bailey Smith (150) and Marcus Bontempelli (199) taking the lion’s share of points. If you took on Neale, you lost 16 points by going with Macrae.
WILL DEVON SMITH RETURN?
Still the ninth most-popular player in KFC SuperCoach, Smith was managed for Round 12 by Essendon after a short turnaround between games. With only one score of more than 73 in his past eight games, Smith has tested the patience of SuperCoaches. If you held him through his Round 12 rest, the rewards could come on the other side. In a worst-case scenario, you can use his value to turn him into a premium scorer. In the best-case scenario, his form turns and you have your F6 set. Expect him to return to the Bombers’ side in Round 13.
🚨 Devon Smith is OUT 🚨
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) August 15, 2020
And did Sam Draper and Jack Bytel make the cut?
LATE MAIL: https://t.co/C7mOP035mM pic.twitter.com/vHgq3L27xl
CAN WE TRUST BEVO?
No. The Bulldogs coach delighted KFC SuperCoaches when he threw Bailey Smith back into the middle against Adelaide, which resulted in a score of 150 points. That came about after Lachie Hunter returned to take the wing role which Smith had been forced into in recent rounds. If history tells us anything Smith will be playing on a forward flank next round, but he was so good against Adelaide Beveridge surely has no choice but to leave him in at the centre bounce.
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