KFC SuperCoach Round 11 trade bible: Best targets coming off the bye
The first game of Round 11 is only hours away so it’s time to get your KFC SuperCoach trades sorted. We look at trade strategy, the top targets coming off the bye, the mid-price value and all the best rookie options
Supercoach
Don't miss out on the headlines from Supercoach. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Trading in players coming off a bye is a proven strategy to KFC SuperCoach success.
SuperCoaches who built up their bank in preparation for Hawthorn, Fremantle, Carlton and West Coast returning in Round 11 will have their choice of some of the game’s best scorers — at discount prices. In fact, the timing couldn’t be better if you don’t have stars like Patrick Cripps and Tom Mitchell.
Cripps already features in 52 per cent of teams but is a bargain at less than $500,000, while Mitchell’s price is about to boom after a score of 164 in his last outing against Cripps’ Blues. There are also players such as breakout star Andrew Brayshaw, top-ranked forward Michael Walters, prolific Eagles Elliot Yeo and Tim Kelly and rookie star Caleb Serong to consider.
BURNING QUESTIONS: The Phantom tackles the big issues ahead of Round 11
Getting your trades right in Round 11 will set you up for a successful run home and leave your team primed to reach full-premium status in coming weeks.
Coaches will be considering parting with popular picks such as Marlion Pickett and Izak Rankine, although trading any player who features in their team’s best 22 comes with an element of risk this season.
With about 18 hours between the end of Round 10 and the first game of Round 11, trade decisively.
TOP TARGETS
Patrick Cripps (Carlton) $488,500 MID, Average: 101.6, Break-even: 68
Cripps was available for less than $500,000 in KFC SuperCoach for the first time since 2016 before Round 9 and only rose by $10,400 despite scoring a season-high 149 against Hawthorn. Cripps, who averaged 119 and 117 in 2018-19, opened the campaign with three successive scores of 112 or better but then only posted more than 85 once in his next five games. If you didn’t start with the Blues co-captain, this is the perfect time to bring him in after Carlton’s bye. His 27-disposal performance against the Hawks was the first time since Round 1 he had more than 25 touches and coaches will be hopeful it signalled a return to top form.
Tom Mitchell (Hawthorn) $568,800 MID, Avg: 114.1, BE: 72
The Brownlow medallist will soon rocket back above $600,000 after continuing his dominant record against Carlton with 164 KFC SuperCoach points. Mitchell has been consistent without matching the scoring feats of big guns Jack Macrae and Lachie Neale this season, recording at least 95 points in eight of his nine matches. He was the fourth-ranked midfielder for total points after nine rounds, behind only Macrae, Neale and surprise packet Jack Steele. While that trio is worth more than $600,000, Mitchell is available for $62,100 less than his starting price ahead of Round 10.
Tim Kelly (West Coast) $557,800 MID, Avg: 101.8, BE: 93
The first-year Eagle was available for as little as $483,600 after Round 5 before recording scores of 140, 105 and 150 in consecutive matches. Kelly dropped back to 90 against his former side Geelong, but has produced an eye-catching past month. While he features in more SuperCoach teams (12.8 per cent) than Elliot Yeo (8.5 per cent) and Andrew Gaff (6.8 per cent) Kelly is still a point of difference selection. Especially when most other coaches will target Cripps, Mitchell or Nat Fyfe this round.
Luke Ryan (Fremantle) $551,100 DEF, Avg: 101, BE: 80
Ball magnet Jake Lloyd (125.6 points) is the only defender who has a better average than Fremantle intercept specialist Ryan (117.6) in the past five rounds. Despite being forced to play as a tall defender in the absence of players such as Alex Pearce and Joel Hamling, Ryan has flourished in the past five rounds, reeling off five straight hundreds – 109, 105, 125, 118 and 131. Ryan benefits from kick-in points and intercept possessions, of which he had a team-high nine against Collingwood.
Nat Fyfe (Fremantle) $588,200 MID, Avg: 114.3, BE: 155
Will you really gain much by waiting an extra week to get Fyfe? The Dockers skipper dropped $50,800 after scoring 112 on his return from injury in Round 9, but will only lose another $15,000 if he matches his projected score of 120 against Hawthorn. Fyfe amassed 154 points against the Hawks in Round 17 last year. While his durability has been a question mark, if Fyfe gets through the remainder of the campaign he will rival Lachie Neale as the No. 1 midfielder from Round 11 onwards.
Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs) MID, Round 10 price: $521,300, Avg: 100.6
The Bulldogs skipper is another of the midfielders who started the season priced at more than $600,000 but is available for more than $100,000 less than his starting quote. A combination of taggers and time spent forward have caused Bontempelli’s average to drop by 14 points from last season. But he’s still one of the best players at accumulating points swiftly, as he did in Round 4 against Sydney when he had 111 points at halftime.
Shannon Hurn (West Coast) $429,100 DEF, Avg: 86.3, BE: 79
Not a pick for the faint of heart, but one that could pay huge dividends if Hurn can recapture the scoring prowess he displayed in recent years. The Eagles defender peaked at $567,500 after Round 3, but his initial price rise was due to a Round 1 score of 152 against Melbourne. Since then, Hurn has averaged 78 and his mantle as the topscoring West Coast defender has been taken by Brad Sheppard. There’s always risk attached with taking on a fallen premium (especially at age 32) but at least the upside with Hurn is obvious — playing games at home and benefiting from kick-in stats.
Jayden Short (Richmond) Approx price: $497k Avg: 98
Short has blossomed into a premium KFC SuperCoach defender this season, lifting his average from 64.3 to 98 with four scores of 110 or better. Despite that, he’s still set to be available for less than $500,000 in Round 11. He had 23 disposals at 100 per cent efficiency against Brisbane Lions, recording 125 KFC SuperCoach points. The looming return of Bachar Houli will have prospective buyers treading carefully, but the pair scored well together earlier this year. He’s an alternative if you missed out on Tom Stewart.
Andrew Brayshaw (Fremantle) Price: $546,800 FWD-MID Avg: 102.7 BE: 85
Only two players who had the Round 10 bye have scored more points than Brayshaw this season — James Sicily and Tom Mitchell. After failing to reach 90 in his opening four games, Brayshaw has gone on a run of five successive KFC SuperCoach tons. He has averaged 122 points a game during that stretch, with the highlights scores of 144, 122 and 136. The only slight concern is his minutes were down against Collingwood in Round 9. In rounds 6-8 he played 96, 81 and 81 minutes. Against the Magpies, when Nat Fyfe returned from injury, he played 73 minutes. A points per minute ratio of 1.5 was still promising though.
Jy Simpkin (North Melbourne) Approx price: $398k FWD-MID Avg: 96.9
Simpkin returned to form against Geelong on Wednesday with his first KFC SuperCoach ton since Round 6 (103). The North Melbourne breakout star seemed unattainable when he reached $555,800 but scores of 57, 35 and 56 in successive weeks have caused his price to crash to within $20,000 of his starting price of $383,000. That’s too good to pass up for coaches who had to watch him string together five hundreds and a 97 in the opening six rounds with envy. Don’t be put off by his three low scores either — one was with a heavy Ed Curnow tag and the 57 was when he only played 59 minutes of a possible 98 due to an ankle injury.
Tom Stewart (Geelong) Approx price: $460k DEF Avg: 89
If you prioritised Mitch Duncan or other targets in Round 10, Stewart will still be available for about $70,000 less than his starting price of $533,000. A price tag of about $460k is cheap for a player renowned for his consistency. The only concern is Geelong has flagged the likelihood of managing its stars through a gruelling period of matches. While that doesn’t mean he will be rested, Stewart only played 80 of a possible 105 minutes against North Melbourne. His kicking efficiency of 45.5 also contributed to a score of 68, his lowest in a full game since Round 22, 2018.
One thing of note about Tom Stewart's #supercoach score in Round 10.
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) August 6, 2020
Game time was down, but he also went at 45.5 per cent kicking efficiency.
The lowest he had recorded in a game this year before yesterday was 78.6 per cent.
ROOKIE WATCH
Tobe Watson (Fremantle) $155,400 DEF, Avg: 61, BE: -29
After being a late inclusion in Round 8, Watson held his spot and finished with 12 disposals, four marks, five tackles and 73 KFC SuperCoach points against Collingwood. While he jumped by $31,500 after his second game, Watson will still represent an attractive downgrade target in Round 10. SuperCoaches who have held onto Magpie John Noble will be able to make more than $150,000 by trading him to Watson. If that helps facilitates other team upgrades, it’s a no-brainer.
SCROLL DOWN TO THE SEE THE BEST ROOKIES RANKED
Harry Schoenberg (Adelaide) Price: $117,300 MID Avg: 59
There was plenty to like about the debut of last year’s No. 24 draft pick. An inside midfielder, Schoenberg battled to 17 points at halftime before showcasing his talent with a 28-point third term. He finished with 12 disposals, two marks, two tackles and KFC SuperCoach points. Midfield rookies have been scarce this year and the Crows don’t have much to lose by continuing to play the kids. Although he should only be bench cover, downgrading a player such as Harley Bennell or Marlion Pickett to free up cash will be a popular move in Round 11.
Lachlan Sholl (Adelaide) Price: $123,900 DEF Avg: 52
Sholl soared to 38 KFC SuperCoach points (scaled to 42) by quarter-time of his Crows debut and is all but guaranteed a second game after teammate Will Hamill was sidelined by concussion. Sholl slowed down in the last three terms, only finishing with 52 points, but the rate with which he flew to 42 by quarter-time was eye-catching. With Rory Laird thrust into the midfield, where Brodie Smith has also spent more time, there’s going to be ample opportunity for players such as Sholl at halfback. He averaged 19 disposals and 75 ranking points in the SANFL last season with a disposal efficiency of 76 per cent.
DAN BATTEN’S ROOKIE RANKINGS
1. Tobe Watson - Fremantle ($155,400, DEF) Ave: 61 BE: -29
2. Harry Schoenberg - Adelaide ($123,900, MID) Ave: 59, BE: -10
3. Sam Draper - Essendon (RUCK) Ave: 73, BE: -47
4. Sam Wicks - Sydney ($123,900, MID) Ave: 80, BE: -28
5. Lachlan Hosie - North Melbourne ($123,900, FWD) Ave: 54
6. Lachie Sholl - Adelaide ($123,900, DEF) Ave: 52
7. Boyd Woodcock - Port Adelaide ($102,400, FWD) Ave: 43, BE: 0
8. Trey Ruscoe - Collingwood ($117,300, DEF/MID) Ave: 43, BE: 6
9. Xavier O’Halloran - GWS ($123,900, MID), Ave: 68, BE: -16
10. Tom Sparrow - MELB ($211,500, FWD) Ave: 71, BE: -15
11. Will Walker - NM ($154,900, FWD) Ave: 67, BE:-3
12. Jeremy Sharp - Gold Coast ($117,300, MID) Ave: 34, BE: 15
SuperCoaches have been searching far and wide for rookies in recent weeks and now there is almost too many to choose from.
In terms of job security and scoring, the best of the lot has already risen in price.
Docker Tobe Watson had the bye in Round 10 but is coming off a score of 73 points in his last game and the 22-year-old intercept defender presents as an attractive downgrade option.
North Melbourne debutant Lachlan Hosie slotted two first quarter goals on debut playing in the role previously held by cash cow Curtis Taylor, who will be sidelined for the next three weeks.
It means Hosie, a mature-age recruit from last year’s mid-season draft, should have a solid run at it over that period — especially with forward Ben Brown also suffering an injury blow in Round 10.
Don’t expect a 50-plus score each game, though.
Alternatively, Sam Draper taking the reigns as Essendon’s sole ruckman could make him a significant money-maker.
After scoring 74 KFC SuperCoach points - 70 of them in the second-half - in his second career game, he is priced at $166,100 ahead of Round 11 and looms as a shrewd buy with the injury-affected Max Gawn in doubt for his date with Todd Goldstein.
Draper will provide valuable cover if Gawn misses and, if he can put four quarters together, his scoring may even warrant on-field consideration, especially if you’re still stuck with Marc Pittonet.
If you are after basement price options in the midfield or defence, Harry Schoenberg and Lachie Sholl are worth considering.
Schoenberg spent an encouraging amount of time at centre bounces while Scholl started with a bang playing on a wing, scoring 41 points in the first quarter, before fading out of the game.
The Crows did manage several younger players for their clash with Melbourne and unforunately we will not know their team line-up until later in the round on Monday night.
Of the pair, Schoenberg appears most likely to hold his spot with outside runner Brodie Smith, a late withdrawal in Round 10, a chance to take Sholl’s place.
Sydney rookie Sam Wicks is sure to be a popular option after impressing with 80 points from nine touches and six tackles but has a bye in Round 11.
Wicks is a safe bet and will likely remain in the Swans’ side if you wish to avoid the unwanted stress waiting for Schoenberg to be named.
Magpies debutant Trey Ruscoe could have easily had two or three goals to his name but instead kicked an inaccurate 1.3.
The DEF/MID rookie played as a forward and should receive more opportunity considering Collingwood’s injury crisis, while rock-bottom cheapie Boyd Woodcock ($102,400, FWD) faces a nervous wait at selection.
Lachlan Sholl ($123,900, DEF) has 3⃣8⃣ #SuperCoach points at quarter-time on debut!
— SuperCoach AFL (@Supercoach) August 5, 2020
🙋â€â™‚ï¸if you got him this week
How good is this mid-season rookie frenzy?
MORE: https://t.co/3c7RgDyi1f pic.twitter.com/p8UzJ5Px1y
MID-PRICE BOLTERS
Caleb Serong (Fremantle) $330,100 MID, Avg: 78.2, BE: -35
Injected into a prominent midfield role in the past two rounds, first-round draftee Serong has been a revelation for the Dockers and KFC SuperCoaches. The 19-year-old went head-to-head with Patrick Dangerfield in Round 8 and finished with 118 points. The return of skipper Nat Fyfe did not derail his scoring spike as Serong then scored 114 against Collingwood. His price has jumped by $83,500 in the past two rounds but with a break-even of -35 he’s projected to rise above $400,000 by the end of Round 12. Serong averaged 63 minutes a game in his first four matches but featured in 80 minutes against the Cats and 79 against the Magpies.
Oscar McInerney (Brisbane Lions) RUC-FWD Approx price: $391k Avg: 79
McInerney was outstanding against Richmond, finishing with 11 disposals, four marks and 19 hit outs to register 128 KFC SuperCoach points. His price will boom by about $36k ahead of Round 11 but the Lions big man is still worth considering due to strong job security with Stefan Martin and Archie Smith sidelined by injury. Forgive his season average of 79, it’s his average in the past two weeks as Brisbane’s No. 1 ruckman of 109.5 you should be interested in.
Noah Balta (Richmond) RUC-FWD Approx price: $327k Avg: 71.3
Don’t be concerned about the low numbers Balta posted last year. In the absence of Alex Rance and David Astbury, the young Tiger has emerged as an aerial threat in defence. His intercept marking has been a feature in the past two rounds, when he has produced scores of 107 and 96. That role is much more KFC SuperCoach friendly than when he spent time as a forward and in the ruck last season. Balta only needs to average 80 in the next three rounds to get to about $390k, which would be a great result. If you’re still holding Devon Smith, a sideways swap is worth consideration.
Alex Witherden (Brisbane Lions) DEF Approx price: $436k Avg: 98.7
After a lengthy absence from Brisbane’s team — extended by the COVID-19 shutdown — Witherden has returned with scores of 170 and 85. Whether he can maintain that type of scoring when Daniel Rich returns remains to be seen, but the one-time KFC SuperCoach prodigy has at least put himself back on the radar. His past two games have displayed the type of form SuperCoaches were excited by when he averaged 87.1 in nine games as a rookie in 2017.
Tom Lynch (Richmond) Approx price: $323k FWD Avg: 69.6
This is one for the risk takers. Yes, he’s technically not a rookie, but Lynch is available for a fraction more than rookie price and has scored 97 and 109 in the past two weeks. The likelihood of more rounds with the best 18 scoring system bring him into the mix. While he can throw in a stinker — he had three recent scores in a row of 42 or less — Lynch is capable of big numbers as he showed when he managed 132 points in Round 19 against Collingwood last year.
Approx prices thanks to Brice Mitchell — follow Brice on Twitter @bricemitchell
SUPERCOACH PODCASTS:
MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
Round 10 late mail: Max Gawn shoulder injury, more KFC SuperCoach rookie options
The Phantom’s Round 10 Review: All burning questions answered ahead of Round 11
Doctor’s Orders: Best KFC SuperCoach trade options coming off the Round 10 bye