The Phantom’s Round 10 Review: All burning questions answered ahead of Round 11
Can you trade Rankine and Pickett after their Round 10 scores? Is Cripps a must-have? When do we trade? Mitchell or Fyfe? The Phantom answers the KFC SuperCoach burning questions ahead of Round 11.
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What day is it?
No, seriously.
If you live and breathe KFC SuperCoach, like The Phantom, you would’ve asked yourself the same question over the past week.
The footy frenzy has been great, but I’m disorientated.
With only hours until the start of Round 11, however, it’s time to focus.
And it’s time to narrow your focus on improving your team.
You’re always trying to improve your KFC SuperCoach side, I know, but there are only eight rounds to go this year.
I’m not trying to scare you but if you’re falling behind, like me, time is running out.
There’s no time to milk every last cent out of your KFC SuperCoach cash cows.
If you are in reach of a premium target, don’t wait.
And with four teams coming off the bye, there has been no better time to upgrade.
LATE MAIL: All the latest KFC SuperCoach team news and advice
So, where do we start?
Right here, my friends. Or maybe with Tim Michell and Dan Batten’s brilliant Round 11 trade guide, which you can find here.
When do we trade?
The Port Adelaide-Richmond clash at Adelaide Oval at 4.05pm on Saturday kicks off Round 11. So, if you’re targeting a Power or Tigers player, the clock is ticking. The Lions then take on the Bulldogs on Saturday night.
Should I be considering anyone from Richmond or Port Adelaide?
Yes. Dustin Martin has posted four consecutive KFC SuperCoach tons and $559k – thanks @BriceMitchell – for a likely top-three forward from this point is still good buying. Power midfielder Travis Boak at $460k is cheaper, but he’s been managed through the past two rounds, spending plenty of time on the bench. I’d wait and see on the former skipper as he’s likely to be available for less than $500k for a while longer. And then there’s Noah Balta to think about – but there’s more on him below. Forget about sleep on Friday night, if that’s what day it is.
Can you trade Izak Rankine after an 83?
The excitement machine reached his 76-point breakeven on Thursday night, tallying 13 disposals, two goals and 83 points in another impressive performance. With two similar scores over the next two matches, Rankine will be shooting past $300k very quickly. At Round 11, in a standard season, you’re probably holding and milking every cent out of your KFC SuperCoach cash cows. And, if your team is in good shape, you’re keeping him. But if you need to use Rankine to get to Patrick Cripps – a trade which will cost you less than $200k – then pull the trigger. You’re improving your side. What about Rankine to Jy Simpkin for $100k? Maybe. But given Simpkin’s staggeringly low price, you may have other options to get to him.
Round 10 #supercoach Price Projection* - Izak Rankine
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) August 6, 2020
UPDATED R10 Score 83
R10:$279k->$282k ($3k)
NewBE 52
ProjScore 76
R11:$282k->$292k ($11k) NewBE 17
R12:$292k->$319k ($26k) NewBE 41
R13:$319k->$335k ($16k) NewBE 51
*approx
What about Marlion Pickett?
The same applies for Pickett, in my view. With the 106-point Round 9 score still in his two-round rolling average, Pickett is set to rise in price again given the low breakeven of 36. But he’s made $224k and has posted scores in the 60s either side of both his recent KFC SuperCocah tons. It will only cost you $140k to get to Cripps and, again, it’s improving your team. It seems many of you already agree with Pickett the most-traded-out player in the game ahead of Saturday’s first bounce.
Jy Simpkin is available for how much!?
Yep, that’s right $398k.
Wot?
You heard me. Simpkin, North Melbourne’s breakout star, who averaged 120 points per game across the opening six rounds of the year, is valued at less than $400k ahead of Round 11. And he found form against the Cats on Wednesday, tallying a game-high eight clearances, a team-high 25 disposals and 103 KFC SuperCoach points. Get on.
Is Patrick Cripps a must-have this week?
He started the year at $636k after averaging 117 points per game in 2019. And the Carlton co-captain posted a season-high 149 in his last start against the Hawks. Oh, and he’s available for $488k, with a Round 11 breakeven of 70. I could’ve just said yes.
Nat Fyfe or Tom Mitchell?
At $568k, with a breakeven of 72, it has to be Mitchell this week. Sure, Fyfe could reach his breakeven score of 155 but it’s likely his price drops slightly ahead of Round 12. And he, too, is already more than $60k down on what he started at.
TRADE GUIDE: ALL THE ROUND 11 KFC SUPERCOACH TARGETS
Was that enough from Alex Witherden?
After his 170 points on return in Round 9, the young Lion tallied 19 kicks – no handballs – 10 marks and 85 points against the Tigers on Tuesday night. I think it’s enough to say he’s back. Remember, the skilful right-footer scored 85 KFC SuperCoach points or more in 16 of his first 30 career matches. And his precise ball-use and intercept ability will continue to be rewarded in KFC SuperCoach in a shortened season, if coach Chris Fagan was now convinced. But is it enough to pick him over a Tom Stewart or Jayden Short? I don’t think so.
WHAT ELSE HAPPENED IN ROUND 10?
- with Al Paton
Plenty happened earlier in Round 10, and it’s lead to even more questions.
How do we get Clayton Oliver?
The Demons midfielder joined an elite club when he scored an incredible 205 KFC SuperCoach points against Adelaide on the back of 34 disposals (25 effective), 22 contested possessions, 12 clearances, six tackles and a goal — not bad in a shortened game. It’s not a flash in the pan, either — two weeks ago Oliver scored 177 against Brisbane. He presented value before Round 1 at $593,900 after a slightly disappointing 2019 season, but those days are well and truly gone — Twitter guru Brice Mitchell projects his price will jump more than $50k when lockout ends on Friday night and he’s fast heading towards $700k. But with the Demons having already had their bye he is shaping as one of the highest-scorers for the rest of the season. Marlion Pickett could help a “get Clarry” project — he is set to max out in price at about $360k in the next couple of weeks. But will so many underpriced midfield guns available, we might have to accept Oliver is out of reach for 2020.
Neale, Macrae, Oliver: The big three#SuperCoach
— Tim Michell (@tim_michell) August 5, 2020
Is Max Gawn gettable?
Gawn’s price is on the way down after be was again beaten from pillar to post against the Crows. Gawn still tonned up but said after the game he played with a bank injury that puts him in doubt for a clash against North Melbourne — and Todd Goldstein — on Sunday. If he does play he will have a break-even of about 240 so even a 140 score will lead to another big price fall. After threatening the $800k barrier he is likely to be available for less than $700k after Round 11 — in fact, a similar price to Oliver. But you can probably only have one! If Gawn is fully fit we know what his scoring looks like — averaging 160 from Rounds 4-8 — so that makes him him the No.1 target. For Gawn’s owners sweating on his injury, the silver lining is Round 11 is probably the best round for him to miss — it will be best 18 scoring again but with only two clubs (Sydney and GWS) missing on the bye, we shouldn’t have any trouble fielding 18 scoring players. If you’re really nervous, there is a back-up plan — see below!
Should we take a punt on a bargain RUC/FWD?
Picking Jon Ceglar as a forward hasn’t worked out as many had hoped but the theory still has merit, especially with two contenders putting up their hands at Metricon Stadium on Tuesday night. Oscar McInerney scored 128 — his third time over 120 for the season — and has the Lions’ No.1 ruck job to himself for the next six weeks with injuries to Stefan Martin and Archie Smith. He will jump in price but still be available for under $400,000, with a projected break-even of 16. Noah Balta is also available as a RUC/FWD in KFC SuperCoach but is playing — and starring — as a key defender. He showed his 107 a week ago wasn’t a fluke with 96 points against the Lions fuelled by an incredible five intercept marks. He started Round 10 at just $287,300 but will be closer to $330k heading into Round 11, with a negative break-even. He’ll still be cheaper than Devon Smith — and can provide ruck cover if you have a RUC/FWD at R3. Sideways trade, anyone?
Will Bachar Houli prevent Jayden Short becoming a top-six defender?
Short is thriving as an attacking defender in the absence of his experienced teammate, averaging 105 over his past five games, which puts him just outside the top six in his position alongside the likes of Caleb Daniel and Luke Ryan — but considerably cheaper. His is projected to be valued at $497k after lockout on Friday night (break-even 79), good value considering his hot run of form. The worry for Short is Houli has flown to the Gold Coast and is hoping to play against the Suns in Round 12. In the four games they played together this season (Rounds 2-5) Short scored 79, 126, 92 and 75. It’s worth noting the Tigers won only one of those matches (and drew with Collingwood). They are travelling a bit better now and teammates love to get the ball in his hands for those long bombs inside 50. It’s a borderline call but in just 6 per cent of teams he could be a nice point of difference. Note the Tigers will have a bye at some stage, though.
Is Jarryd Lyons the POD star of 2020?
Mitch Duncan has held this title for years but everyone is on to him now. Lyons, however, remains unloved — he in just 2 per cent of teams despite his reliable top-level scoring. The former Crows and Suns ball-winner finished last year like a freight train, averaging 117 after the Lions’ bye, and has continued that form in 2020 with a 115 average including 147, 115 and 121 in his past three. He has a high ceiling, scoring over 140 three times last season including a 165, and perhaps even more reassuring is the fact he has gone under 100 only twice this year with a low score of 88. With Lachie Neale getting all the attention — if opposition coaches deploy a tag at all — he can continue flying under the radar.
Which Dogs suffered from Josh Dunkley’s return?
On first look, unfortunately, it was popular KFC SuperCoach forward Bailey Smith – at least on Monday night, anyway. The second-year gun, who has been traded in by more than 20,000 teams over the past two weeks, has attended an average of 14.2 centre bounces for the Bulldogs this year. Against the Power, with Dunkley back in the midfield, Smith was there for the restart of play just eight times. But given his terrific ball-winning ability in any role, the 19-year-old still scored 88 points, on the back of 20 disposals, eight contested possessions and four tackles. It’s not a great development, but it’s unlikely to affect his output dramatically. In positive news, Jack Macrae attended 14, in a sign Dunkley’s return may not push him out to a wing, like earlier in the season.
What’s up with Travis Boak?
After the Round 9 clash with the Demons, assistant coach Michael Voss admitted the Power managed Boak’s game-time, with the former skipper spending just 73 per cent of the match on the ground. It didn’t matter, though, Boak was close to the most-influential player in the win, finishing with 25 disposals and 104 points. But he failed to have the same impact against the Bulldogs in similar game-time in Round 10. Boak played 70 per cent of game-time on Monday night and attended just 6 centre bounces, his lowest tally for the year. In the limited role, he finished with 10 disposals, four contested possessions and 67 points. He wasn’t the only Port Adelaide midfielder to be managed, though, with Ollie Wines (51 per cent) and Sam Powell-Pepper (41 per cent) also playing limited game-time. How long will this continue? Monitor it closely against the Tigers on Saturday, because the Power will then get a more-traditional six-day break ahead of Round 12. Boak could still be available for less than $470k by then. And if he reverts to his usual role, that price is almost too hard to pass up.
Round 10 #supercoach Price Projection* - Travis Boak
— Brice Mitchell (@bricemitchell) August 3, 2020
StartPrice $582k
2019Av 107
2020Av 101
R10Price $495k
R10BE 138
R10Score 67
R10:$495k->$463k ($-32k) NewBE 107
ProjScore 105
R11:$463k->$462k ($-1k) NewBE 106
R12:$462k->$462k ($-1k) NewBE 69
*approx
How cheap will Marcus Bontempelli be?
Following a 114-point score against the Power on Monday night, the star midfielder will be available for around $515k ahead of Round 11. His KFC SuperCoach scoring has been inconsistent – four tons but two scores of 76 or less – but, given his scoring potential, that’s undeniable value. There’s a number of other cheap premium options in the midfield on offer next round – Patrick Cripps tops this list – but Bontempelli must remain on the radar.
MORE SUPERCOACH ADVICE:
Round 10 late mail: Max Gawn shoulder injury, more KFC SuperCoach rookie options
Doctor’s Orders: Best KFC SuperCoach trade options coming off the Round 10 bye
KFC SuperCoach Round 10 trade guide: Premium options, value picks and planning ahead
KFC SuperCoach: Trade targets, rookie options and everything you need to know for rounds 10-12
Originally published as The Phantom’s Round 10 Review: All burning questions answered ahead of Round 11