Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of finals week one

Some experts will tell you finals results come down to a team’s bottom six players. Forget all that. Here are the players who need to shine.

There is a simple formula for winning finals, according to stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne.

Have your best players playing at their best.

“You go along on Thursday night and you’re watching De Goey and you’re watching Petracca and Oliver,” Hoyne, a Champion Data analyst, said on Pure Footy.

“So often we hear the conversation, ‘it’s the bottom six’, I reckon it’s absolute rubbish.

“As a Collingwood supporter or Melbourne supporter or St Kilda, whoever you are this weekend, you are relying on your stars to rip the game apart. You’re not worrying about the bottom end.”

North Melbourne champion King said September was an “arms race”.

“Team assets thrown head to head and performing or not, if you’re best players perform, you win.”

Clayton Oliver has a great record in finals. Picture: Michael Klein

Hoyne revealed the best finals performers on Champion Data’s new 100X ratings system, and the players who have underperformed in September. That list features some surprise names including Jake Lever and Luke Parker.

And he said Brisbane’s Cam Rayner is “on watch” after going goalless in his past two finals.

King said the No.1 draft pick had his “best chance to impact” this year.

“He’s averaged only nine disposals in six finals,” he said.

“You’ve got to find a way to get your best players into the game. Chris Fagan is using him slightly differently, so I would expect that to correct.

“He gets his best opportunity not as a deep forward waiting for the ball, he’s actually around the heat.”