AFL Finals 2023: Mick McGuane previews Collingwood v Melbourne blockbuster
When Collingwood and Melbourne last met, some alarming numbers were blinking red for Craig McRae. Mick McGuane breaks down where the qualifying final will be won and lost.
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The first final is arguably the biggest and could play a key role in determining this year’s premier.
Minor premier Collingwood fell to Melbourne by four points on King’s Birthday back in June.
But can the Magpies turn that result around to move straight through to a preliminary final?
AFL analyst Mick McGuane takes an in-depth look at the two sides and how this match is shaping up.
COLLINGWOOD
HOW THEY PLAY
The Magpies love chaos and keeping the ball in motion with a play-on, knock-on, go-forward mentality.
They attack at speed after winning the ball back, which often comes on the back of a systematic team defence and an elite pressure game.
Collingwood’s ball movement is also elite and they rank No.1 for points from defensive half at 39.8 points a game.
This comes from effective ball use by foot, putting speed on the game and constantly changing angles to not allow opposition sides to get set behind the ball.
If Melbourne doesn’t defend the corridor, look out.
THE KEY
Win contested ball and clearances.
The Magpies must match Melbourne at the contest in pursuit of gaining much-needed territory.
If the rain comes on Thursday night, territory will be even more important.
Last time these sides met, Collingwood lost contested ball by 19, lost the inside-50 count by 10 and lost clearances by four.
It can’t replicate those numbers again if it wants to turn its fortunes around and advance to a preliminary final.
Either Darcy Cameron or Mason Cox in the ruck and the midfield group led by Scott Pendlebury, Taylor Adams, Tom Mitchell, Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey must master themselves and challenge each other to bring their absolute competitive best at stoppages and in general play against the strong Melbourne midfield.
THE THEME
Operation pressure.
The pressure must be red-hot from every Collingwood player across the board.
The Magpies must hunt the opposition ball carrier with purpose but at the same time ensure they don’t lose defensive shape around the ball carrier so they can cut off their next option.
The Magpies can ill-afford to be bees to a honey pot because it would allow Melbourne to get its leapfrog footy game going.
The Magpies’ off-side players must fold back aggressively and support their defence to give the likes of Darcy Moore, Nathan Murphy and Brayden Maynard some assistance.
If Collingwood can force Melbourne into error — and force turnovers between the arcs — its transition game will flow from there.
THE CHALLENGE
The Magpies must master their money kick.
Once they get to the launch-pad area between 60 and 80 metres from goal, they have to find a target more often than not.
Given Melbourne’s aerial strength down back with Jake Lever and Steven May — as well as ruckman Max Gawn at times — dump kicks forward must be a last resort option.
Even “dirty ball” entry will suffice at times, as kicking to grass will test the Demons’ defenders at ground level.
Playing quick with effective skill execution can be difficult, particularly in finals, but how Collingwood enters its forward 50 will determine this result.
IF I WERE THE MAGPIES
Collingwood has to keep six forwards in front of the ball at all times on Melbourne’s six defenders.
If there are two players you must engage in that defensive system, they are Lever and May.
If the Magpies’ high half-forwards push up the ground, Lever and May will drop off, set-up the ground the way they want and intercept everything going forward.
When Christian Petracca is playing forward, Brayden Maynard needs to go to him.
Clayton Oliver must be kept in-check at stoppages, by a combination of Pendlebury, Crisp and Mitchell.
Darcy Cameron must look to slide forward against Gawn and get dangerous when the opportunity presents.
However, Cameron must also go with Gawn when he pushes forward, because we know the Melbourne skipper has the ability to hit the scoreboard in finals.
MELBOURNE
HOW THEY PLAY
The Demons bring a ruthless approach around the contest, which allows them to gain great territory.
They rank second in the competition for inside-50 differential, which can be attributed in a large part to these contest wins.
Melbourne also has a strong defence before attack philosophy and has built a systematic team defence that is rock solid and heavily restricts opposition ball movement and scoring.
The Demons are the second-most stingy team in the competition defensively, conceding an average of 72.2 points against per game this season.
THE KEY
Melbourne’s frontline pressure and defensive set-up must be in sync to stifle Collingwood’s transition game.
The Demons must ensure they cover the corridor well and come forward to defend in a bid to generate midfield turnovers.
They cannot afford this to become a transition game.
When these sides last met on King’s Birthday, Melbourne forced Collingwood into 35 defensive-half turnovers — the Magpies’ worst result of the year.
If the Demons can again snap into a defensive transition and block Collingwood’s exits coming out of defensive 50 it will go a long way to winning.
THE THEME
The Demons must dominate territory.
Especially if it is a wet night at the MCG, there is a great opportunity for Melbourne’s strong and assertive team defence to impose itself on this game.
The Demons’ defenders and midfielders come in behind their attack aggressively and cover outlets as good as any team in the competition.
That means the ball lives in their forward half of the ground, evidenced by them ranking second for time in forward half.
Opposition teams that struggle to exit defensive 50 only fuel Melbourne’s intercept game and gives them repeat scoring opportunities.
THE CHALLENGE
Control the front half.
On King’s Birthday, Melbourne only kicked 2.10 (22) from its 35 forward-half intercepts.
If it had instead kicked 10.2 (62) from those intercepts, it would have won by a lot more than four points.
Melbourne’s conversion was poor that day, but the amount of shots on goal which the Demons had was positive.
They got the game on their terms.
If Melbourne can’t generate a sufficient forward half intercepts, the likes of Crisp and Isaac Quaynor will drive Collingwood’s attack from halfback.
IF I WERE THE DEMONS
You need to bring a team approach to covering the corridor and not allow Collingwood to come back through that area of the ground.
Within your team defensive structure, know your role and stick to it.
Darcy Moore will be fresh and needs some close checking — possibly from Jacob Van Rooyen — so that he doesn’t control the air for the Magpies down back.
Moore will want to lead and impose himself on the game and the best way he does that is by marking the ball in defensive 50.
I’d look to free up Jake Lever, by orchestrating an extra number down back at times, particularly if Craig McRae keeps six forwards at home.
Look to get Lever onto one of the Magpies’ small forwards, who might get sucked up to stoppage or general play and therefore allow him to get free as an interceptor.
Wingmen Lachie Hunter and Ed Langdon will need to push back deep, not only to support Melbourne’s defence but also to kickstart the side’s offence with exits from defensive 50.
MICK’S TIP
Collingwood by 11 points.
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