Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of finals week three

Charlie Curnow dominated the home-and-away season but has been barely sighted in Carlton’s two finals. See the numbers that explain his low impact.

Carlton has won its way into a preliminary final with a minimal contribution from its biggest star. But that might need to change this week.

Coleman Medalist Charlie Curnow has been almost a non-factor in the finals series, with one goal each in the heartstopping wins against Sydney and Melbourne.

And the return reveals a bigger issue with Carlton’s attack, which has managed just 11 goals in each of its two finals – and faces the most potent forward line in the competition at the Gabba on Saturday night.

“His finals series has probably been underwhelming,” Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said on Pure Footy, adding the issue stretched back further than the start of the finals.

“That’s five of (his past) six games he’s been involved in five or fewer scores. That’s a return we haven’t seen from Charlie for the best part of the whole season.

“I feel sorry for him a little bit because he’s just not getting targeted inside 50 and he’s not getting those looks.”

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Hoyne said Champion Data had broken down how effective each forward-50 entry was, and could discard entries where the target has no chance of winning possession.

“He’s been targeted this finals series nine times as a collective, he’s had six of those times where the ball’s gone out on the full or the ball’s come into a contest and all of a sudden two or three defenders come across and kill that contest – only three times has he had a genuine look at it in the finals series.

“It goes along with what Carlton are doing at the moment.”

Good luck marking this one, Charlie. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Hoyne said the other seven teams to have played finals have had one in six inside-50 entries written off as no chance to win possession.

“Carlton are close to one in three,” he said.

“Their entries at the moment, this is the reason they’ve only been able to generate 22 goals the past two weeks.

“Over a six-week period, even when they give Charlie a genuine chance to win it, only one in four times is that target going on the scoreboard – that is the second-lowest return of any player in the competition at the moment.

“I think people would be staggered by those numbers.”