Pure Footy: Stats gurus David King and Daniel Hoyne on the big trends ahead of finals week two

Carlton has escaped the media blowtorch for a horror stat against the Swans. But a repeat would be disastrous.

One of the biggest storylines from week one of finals was Melbourne’s horror ball use going forward as the Demons squandered chance after chance against Collingwood.

But another team has “dodged a bullet” despite having very similar issues. And it could come back to haunt them this weekend.

Carlton held on for its first finals win in a decade despite recording just three marks inside 50 after halftime against Sydney. In that time the Swans took 16 intercept marks in the same part of the ground.

WATCH THE FULL EPISODE OF PURE FOOTY ABOVE

“Everyone’s spoken about Melbourne’s entries this week and how poor they were, but ... if they had have got over the line by taking those chances, would we be here having the same conversation all week about Melbourne? I actually challenge whether we would,” Champion Data analyst Daniel Hoyne said on Pure Footy.

“The narrative would be how good they are defensively and how tough they are.

“Then we have a look at what Carlton did in the second half (against Sydney) – because Carlton won on Friday night nothing gets spoken about this.

“Carlton’s second half, what they dished up from an inside-50 perspective, was almost identical to what Melbourne dished up, and no one has spoken about it.

Sydney's Tom McCartin outmarks Carlton’s Charlie Curnow. Picture: Phil Hillyard

“Twenty-nine entries for three marks inside 50, and they gave the ball back to Sydney through intercept marks 16 times. That’s the sixth-most that anyone’s conceded in a half this year.

“It was poor, but they’ve dodged a bullet.

“If they dish up that to Melbourne this Friday night, it’s curtains. They’re not winning by entering their forward 50 like they did in the second half against Sydney.”

North Melbourne champion David King said the numbers got even more worrying for Blues fans.

Those three second-half marks were taken by Patrick Cripps, Harry McKay – who will miss the semi-final as he recovers from concussion – and Jack Martin, who is out suspended.

King said that since round 13 Martin has been Carlton’s second-most effective forward.

“He’s a huge loss.

“His 15 goals since that point is valuable but there’s so much more to his game. He covers so many cracks.”