Mick McGuane analyses Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast and Fremantle in his mid-year review
Steven May and Jake Lever are the stars of Melbourne’s defence. But there’s a crucial cog in the Dees’ back-six going unnoticed, writes Mick McGuane.
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In Mick McGuane’s final mid-season review, he runs his eye over Richmond, Melbourne, West Coast and Fremantle.
RICHMOND
What it does well
The Tigers are still a very strong front-half team. The opposition need to be precise when exiting out of defence, otherwise they get punished on turnover. Richmond is so dangerous to play against because of its turnover game. The Tigers strength is their belief, trust, the pressure they bring and a defensive system that holds firm. They are the best team that generates scores from turnovers, which is nearly 10 goals per game on average. The time-in-forward-half differential is plus four minutes, which is third in the competition. Not to mention their great capacity to generate forward-half intercepts, which is about 26 per game and only behind Melbourne and Brisbane. And they score from that better than any other team. Don’t write the Tigers off just yet.
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What it must improve
Since last year, Richmond has gone from being the second best team for scores against to ninth. Although, it has also gone from sixth to 15th for scores against once the ball goes inside the forward-50. That says to me, that improvement from stoppages is a big one for them. Right now, the Tigers have a clearance differential of -4.8, which ranks 18th in the league. And they’ve got a points-from-stoppages differential of -2.9, which is 12th in the competition. This is not a new discussion for the Tigers. But to help their overall game, improving their stoppage output will help in their quest for another flag. They have the midfield personnel to implement change in this area of the game. This was evident in last year’s finals series, and particularly in their semi-final win over St Kilda when they were plus three in clearances but they outscored the Saints by 43 points from stoppages.
Surprise packet
Liam Baker. Not because of the unquestionable talent he possesses, but more to do with the flexibility he now brings to the team. Damien Hardwick can comfortably use him as a defender, as a centre bounce midfielder and a creative pressure forward. He’s got great resilience and he’s reliable inside or outside the contest. He relishes the contest and has good contested ball winning ability. He reads the game well to find space, and that’s why he’s got a great balance for contested and uncontested possessions. He also has an ability to change the fortunes of a game and he’s done that on a few occasions this year.
Under the pump
Richmond list boss Blair Hartley, who must keep the out of contract Callum Coleman-Jones - he is a player of the future. The biggest debate that’s about to unfold is when Tom Lynch returns, can he, Jack Riewoldt, Coleman-Jones, Mabior Chol and Toby Nankervis all fit in their forward-ruck combination? The answer is no. Nankervis is brave, but with his age profile how long does he have left? Ivan Soldo is coming off a knee reconstruction, so who knows what the future holds for him. So I’m suggesting Hartley must do everything possible to get Coleman-Jones’ signature. If it doesn’t happen quickly, other clubs may swoop.
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MELBOURNE
What it does well
The Demons’ defensive improvement this year has been stark. The players have got a greater understanding of roles within their team and the structure and expectation that comes with them. The selflessness and trust that is needed for these roles to be played out is a reason as to why Melbourne can win this year’s premiership. Wingers Angus Brayshaw and Ed Langdon are perfect examples of this. They’re getting up and down the ground and pushing back hard to help the defence. It is evident these two players are understanding their roles and the defensive support they must bring. The Dees are the hardest team to score against this year. It’s like defend and support is their mantra. They’re keeping opposition points from turnovers under control, as they’re ranked No.2 in the league for this important facet of the game. They were 11th last year.
What it must improve
As dominant as you’d think Max Gawn, Clayton Oliver and Christian Petracca would be at the centre bounce, the numbers are not stacking up. Melbourne’s total centre bounce clearance differential is -17 for the year, which is ranked 15th in the competition. That means there is plenty of upside in that area. We know all three are super competitive, and are great players, but if they continue to work on better hitouts-to-advantage, they can get better mid-to-forward connections and more territory on the back of having a good centre bounce differential in their favour. If they do that against the best teams, it’ll give their forwards better opportunities to hit the scoreboard. It’s just another layer that can make the Demons more complete.
Surprise packet
Harrison Petty and James Jordon. Petty has really helped Melbourne’s defensive structure because he’s allowed Steven May and Jake Lever to play their intercept roles really well. The season-ending injury to Adam Tomlinson has given Petty his opportunity and he’s taken it. The 2017 draftee as added stability and cohesion - and that’s so important back there. With his size and mobility, he’s become an integral part of their success to this point. While Jordon is a midfielder who has given the Dees great balance. We know Petracca and Oliver are great ball winners, but Jordon plays inside and outside and is a good pressure and tackling player. He brings a good competitive edge to the side, and is improving and feeling more comfortable every week he plays.
Under the pump
Sam Weideman. It’s hard to be critical of Ben Brown because he hasn’t been out there a lot, but it’s important that Weideman steps up because the Demons are screaming out for another key forward. They badly need one to step up and own that position. The Demons are a strong territory team so Weideman will get plenty of opportunities - but he needs to take it. A firing Weideman would be another avenue to goal and would take the pressure off Bayley Fritsch, as an undersized forward, to be their leading goalkicker. Tom McDonald is a better player as a second fiddle, and, while we know Kysaiah Pickett has great attributes, he’s not a tall. Weideman must steel his mind when kicking for goal. His set shot goalkicking lacks confidence and he looks jittery at the moment. It must be corrected quickly as it could be the difference between him being a premiership player and not.
WEST COAST
What it does well
West Coast just has this ability to score and its shot-on-goal accuracy is the best in the league. Conversion is not spoken about strongly enough, but it is so important. Jack Darling has kicked 29.12, Josh Kennedy has booted 28.11 and Oscar Allen (22.9) is also a deadeye dick. From their smalls, Jack Petruccelle has 13.3, Liam Ryan 12.4 and Jamie Cripps is 50-50 but he’s creating scoring opportunities. Therefore, as the opposition, you know they’re going to hurt you if they get enough chances in range. Currently, the Eagles forwards are upholding their end of the bargain and are the reason why they stay in so many games.
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What it must improve
The Eagles have some work to do on their forward-half game in terms of how they force more turnovers in their attacking area of the ground and also how they turn those intercepts into scores. Going from an offensive mindset into a defensive one separates the best teams if you want to be recognised as a strong forward-half team. West Coast are 17th in the competition and they’re only generating 20 forward-half intercepts per game. The Eagles have had a bit of a stuttering period with some key personnel out, but, if they can generate another six or seven per game, it potentially would make a big difference to their scoring power. If they can create more, we know they’ll find chances to score because that’s what they do well. They’ve also defensively declined from last year. For points against, they were sixth in the league in 2020 and now they’re 11th - so that’s a key area for improvement.
Surprise packet
Josh Rotham is an emerging defender and is starting to believe he belongs at AFL level the more he plays. He is versatile and, at 193cm, he can play on smalls and talls. He is athletic and kicks the ball well, and reminds me of Jordan Ridley at Essendon. Ridley is held in high esteem, but if Rotham can get involved more in general play and become a higher possession winner, he can compliment Shannon Hurn as another attacking weapon for the Eagles out of their defensive end.
Under the pump
West Coast’s sport science and medical team, who must do whatever it takes to keep Luke Shuey and Elliot Yeo on the park. Shuey has played only one game this year and 14 games in two years to this point. The 31-year-old is back on the field this week and they need to keep him there. Yeo is 27 and has played only 13 games in two years, with 10 last season and three in 2021, after battling groin issues. They’re two players that are so important to their midfield structure and the class they bring to the team. Also, the synergy and cohesion they have working with Nic Naitanui at the stoppages cannot be underestimated. Those two up-and-firing could be the difference between winning another flag sooner rather than later. Get them right.
FREMANTLE
What it does well
The Dockers have gone from the 11th-best contested-possession differential team last year to fifth at the midway point of this season. Players like Andrew Brayshaw, Caleb Serong, Adam Cerra, Nat Fyfe, David Mundy, and even their ruckman in Sean Darcy, are committed to being strong in a contested sense once the ball gets to ground. Their collective hunt for the loose ball has improved because of a proactive mindset. The Dockers midfield group has become a very competent clearance team based on good, early bodywork around the stoppages and a sharp anticipation to match. With this continued improvement, the Dockers forwards will get greater opportunities to hit the scoreboard.
What it must improve
They must work on their turnover game as a whole, knowing full well that 60 per cent of your score each week generally comes from that area. It’s essential because all the best teams – such as Richmond, Geelong and Brisbane – are all great turnover teams and score off the back of it. At this moment in time, the Dockers are 20 points in arrears to the best team in Richmond. They’re only averaging just under 40 points from turnovers, which makes them 17th in the AFL. The ability to punish the opposition after forcing turnovers is something that Justin Longmuir will be looking to improve.
Surprise packet
Sean Darcy is a player I have great admiration for. He is 23, a smart reader of the game and, if he continues to train hard, the benefits and rewards will come. His positioning around the ground is inconsistent and it will only get better the fitter he becomes. He’s only played 53 games, so he has enormous upside. Darcy has a creative mind and this is vindicated by his score involvements, which makes him a very valuable offensive weapon. He must continue to work on his mobility and agility so he becomes a threat in the air as a resting forward.
Under the pump
The Dockers’ list manager in David Walls must look to get another key forward into the club. They cannot just rely on a ruckman being the third tall in their forward makeup. They are using Darcy, and they’ve used Lloyd Meek. Rory Lobb is primarily a forward/ruck. They’re not as mobile or as instinctive as what a key forward generally is. This was exposed when they played Carlton this year and Liam Jones ran off Meek and Darcy when they were resting forward to conjure up 15 intercepts possessions.
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