Mick McGuane’s 2021 mid-season report cards for St Kilda, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney
To move forward under Robert Harvey, analyst Mick McGuane says there’s a key on-field decision Collingwood must get right. See the Magpies’ mid-season report card.
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The bye is time to take stock, and some of the clubs with the weekend off have some serious questions to answer.
The bye is time to take stock, and some of the clubs with the weekend off have some serious questions to answer.
Analyst Mick McGuane puts the Saints, Pies, Crows and Swans under the blowtorch.
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ST KILDA
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The AFL’s Jekyll and Hyde team would have coach Brett Ratten so frustrated given clearly the expectation going into 2021 hasn’t matched the reality.
Therefore it’s hard to really define what they do well because of the inconsistency they bring, but opposition teams are aware of the danger they pose if things click.
When the Saints apply their pressure game they do it very well and it’s hard to play against, as we saw at the back end of last year.
The Saints are a high-disposal team and a high-kicking team and when on song can be damaging as they can play quick, in spurts and keep the ball in motion.
But there is an element of safety in their game as they‘re the No.1 boundary team in the competition.
MORE McGUANE MID-YEAR REPORT CARDS:
PART 1: CATS, PORT, HAWKS, NORTH, GIANTS
PART 2: BLUES, BOMBERS, DOGS, LIONS
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
The fluctuation in effort and too much picking and choosing by St Kilda players is at the root of the problem.
Being unable to access the Paddy Ryder-Rowan Marshall ruck combination has had a massive impact, particularly with their stoppage game. Last year they ranked No.5 in scores from stoppages, this year they’re 17th in the competition.
The defence has become leaky — St Kilda has conceded the sixth-most points in the competition. For opposition scores per inside 50m measurement the premiership standard profile says you want to be rated in the top six teams. The Saints are 14th.
The stoppage issues also flows onto the inside 50m differential with the Saints 12th while time in forward half which is a major KPI for most clubs has Ratten’s team sitting ninth in the competition.
SURPRISE PACKET
Tom Highmore had a breakout performance against the Crows in just his seventh game and looks worthy of persevering with as a third tall intercept defender.
The other notable feature is his bravery. He is a mature-aged recruit who was taken at No.45 in the 2020 draft and, at 23, his body is AFL-ready.
His ability to influence in the air works well with Dougal Howard and Callum Wilkie. He has taken the role vacated by Ben Paton‘s injury and has the potential to keep out more experienced defenders like James Frawley and Jake Carlisle down the track.
UNDER THE PUMP
The front office of CEO Matt Finnis and football boss Simon Lethlean should be conducting an internal review to figure out what happened to the club which many had pencilled in as a top-eight side this season.
Leadership is a problem on and off the field and that old “boys club” stigma about Moorabbin keeps hanging around. This translates into recruiting, with Dan Hannebery the poster boy in many ways for what is wrong with St Kilda.
A universally respected on-field leader and incredible endurance athlete at Sydney, Hannebery has played 13 games in two-and-a-half years at St Kilda.
His ability to organise teammates is the biggest loss for the Saints, who are lacking in this department despite the best efforts of Jack Steele.
The player whose career is at the crossroads is Jack Lonie. His game is built on forward-50 ground balls and forward-half pressure and both departments are down badly this season. Should he not prioritise those two important facets I think he will be looking for a new home or his AFL career could even be over.
COLLINGWOOD
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The Magpies clearly have a defence before attack mantra. They defend the ground in unison and have a great understanding of spatial defence and what role each player has in areas of the ground when the opposition has the ball.
They’re also a high-disposal team which links into defending with the ball and denying the opposition possession. This starving of opportunities is the reason why Collingwood is a very hard team to score against. The Pies give up only 77 points per game, which is sixth in the competition. Keeping teams like Western Bulldogs to 69 points, plus restricting Geelong (61 points) Port Adelaide (59 points) and Melbourne (63) just proves how strong defensively they are as a team.
And they have an elite band of one-on-one defenders although caretaker coach Robert Harvey will have to manage without Darcy Moore after a season-ending knee injury.
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
The method in Collingwood’s offence against Melbourne last week was a much better balance between going fast versus slow, particularly when they won the ball in the back half of the ground.
They attacked the game with faster decisions and went for that aggressive kick into the corridor or quickly going to the open side. It was their first thought, not an afterthought, which had been a problem earlier in the season. It was like they were reluctant to play on instinct fearing the consequences that sometimes comes from a mistake.
Going faster and having a go-forward mentality rather than lateral or backwards will clearly enhance their ability to score. Harvey can now impose his offensive concepts on the team.
SURPRISE PACKET
Beau McCreery has leapfrogged a couple of more highly credentialed teammates to put his case forward as the small pressure forward and goalkicker. He is a body forward who loves contact and collisions, and is already comfortably in the elite category for forward-half pressure with an impressive average of 4.2 tackles per game.
He also has that uncanny goal sense with nine goals from 11 games, but the biggest challenge for him is to lift his disposal count. He is currently averaging a low seven disposals, if he can get that up to an Eddie Betts-like 15 touches then that is also going to translate on hitting the scoreboard more.
UNDER THE PUMP
The continued improvement of Darcy Cameron has Mason Cox‘s AFL career at the crossroads.
You must question why he can’t get a game at the moment with Collingwood’s No.1 ruckman Brodie Grundy sidelined.
Interestingly, a look at his three-year profile from 2018-2020 compared to this season show the big American has had an increase in disposals, contested possessions, score involvements and impact on the scoreboard this year, yet he’s out of the team.
There are clearly two stats which have the Pies concerned with Cox down in marks and contested marks, the latter by 35 per cent.
ADELAIDE
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The Crows caught the competition by surprise when they won three of their first four games and that was on the back of a strong scoring profile based on impressive contest numbers. Their efficiency inside 50 was impressive with former captain Taylor Walker having a huge say in that, and they averaged just under 100 points per game.
A new catalyst for this was their strong stoppage game. The Crows were not only scoring from stoppages but more importantly they weren’t getting scored against from the same source. Unfortunately for Matthew Nicks, this dried up over the next six weeks.
The message to come out of their mid-season review should focus on the contest game. Everything starts from there and they showed in Round 1 against a very good Geelong defence that the template is there to trouble quality opposition.
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
The Crows turnover game needs to be addressed. For any team to have a great sustainable brand you have to not only be a good team at scoring from turnovers, but also have that counterbalance where you are able to stop the opposition when you turn the ball over.
To Nicks’ credit the Crows play quick, they’ve got a high play-on from mark percentage and use the corridor coming out from its defensive 50. All these elements are good offensively, but if it doesn’t work it opens you up to get scored against and that’s where the Crows have been vulnerable.
Until the surprise win against Melbourne, teams were scoring far too easily when they got inside 50 against Adelaide. The Crows need to continue to master their contest game and need to defend more consistently with greater purpose.
SURPRISE PACKET
Jordon Butts has stepped up as a replacement for Adelaide’s rock Daniel Talia, who over a long period of time has been their on-field leader and lockdown defender who played on opposition monsters.
Butts is a great story, coming out of the rookie draft after playing in a premiership with Shepparton Football Club in the Goulburn Valley League in 2018.
After playing two games in 2020, Butts lined up on Geelong superstar Tom Hawkins in Round 1 and hasn’t looked back since.
UNDER THE PUMP
Two highly-touted players from other clubs. Billy Frampton was given a lifeline by the Crows after five years at Port Adelaide and the question I’ve got is does he want it enough. He hasn’t played a lot of games given the exposure he’s had to the AFL system with just 11 in two years at Adelaide.
Jackson Hately spent two years at the GWS Giants, where he played 13 games after being drafted as a highly regarded prolific inside ball-winner. He managed only two games this season for the Crows and seemed to lack the midfield polish required at the level.
He looks a bit vanilla in the sense that on every street corner there is a player of his ilk and he needs to narrow the gap between his SANFL performances and his AFL output.
SYDNEY
WHAT IT DOES WELL
Sydney’s ball movement is a weapon that we probably haven’t spoken a lot about over the past five or six years but this year we can. The Swans transfer from deep defensive 50 to the forward half better than anyone else in the competition and their efficiency in scoring from these chains is also elite.
They are a high-disposal team but aren’t set in any particular way, it can be either by foot or hand as they play the game on its merits and take what is available to them.
The Swans defenders like to attack the game. The likes of Jordan Dawson, Dane Rampe and Jake Lloyd use the ball well and attack using the wing lines from deep 50 rather than go wide and play safe attacking the boundary.
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
John Longmire would be most concerned about the Swans’ contest game. It was exposed last week in the loss against Hawthorn when they were manhandled by a team that was more urgent, more intense and better at winning critical 50-50 balls.
Generally we applaud Sydney as a contested ball-winning team but their contested possession differentials in a number of key areas are all in the negatives this season.
Despite the form of ruckman Tom Hickey, the experience of Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker and the evolution of the likes of Oliver Florent, Chad Warner and Callum Mills going through the midfield, the Swans are still only 10th in the competition in clearances.
Also they must not fall into the trap of being Lance “Buddy” Franklin conscious when entering their forward line. Being predictable is easy to plan and defend against.
SURPRISE PACKET
Hickey was entering the footy wilderness but he has been revitalised and re-energised to the point where he is in the conversation in terms of the top five ruckmen in the game. I don‘t think he will enter All-Australian calculations but for periods of the year he has played at that standard. The difference at Sydney compared to his three previous homes, is that he’s improved his kicking and is impacting the scoreboard.
Second-year player Chad Warner has also been so impressive and you rarely see a young player come into the competition and be as hard and honest in an environment like Sydney, which sets such high standards. He has been exposed to serious centre bounce minutes and hasn’t let his teammates or coaches down. A tough kid who is going to be some sort of player in the future.
UNDER THE PUMP
Nick Blakey’s career has stalled. Exactly where he fits into this Sydney line-up is an interesting debate.
He came on to the scene as the second or third forward to play alongside Buddy Franklin and Sam Reid. Once he got starved of opportunities there he was tried as a ruck-rover and a game against Fremantle last year in Perth showed he had the mobility to cover the ground and produce an impressive high-possession performance.
Blakey has also played on the wing but the Swans are still working out what role best suits him. He averages below 10 possessions which is poor for someone with his talent, and this is the reason why he‘s been out of the team.
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