Mick McGuane: Mid-season report cards for Carlton, Essendon, Western Bulldogs and Brisbane
Essendon’s rebuild is already ahead of schedule, but Mick McGuane says one bold move could launch the club to new heights. Plus, his review of the other Round 13 bye teams.
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At the midway point of the season, leading football analyst Mick McGuane gives a report card on each of the four teams enjoying byes this weekend.
What do the Blues need to do to turn around their year?
And, which Carlton star should Essendon aggressively target at the trade table this year?
Plus, does Western Bulldogs coach Luke Beveridge need to bed down his best team sooner rather than later?
And what has been Brisbane’s secret weapon this season?
Read on to find out all that and more.
CARLTON
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The one saving grace for the Blues is they haven’t had a problem scoring under coach David Teague.
They are averaging a respectable 85 points per game this season and are taking their chances once they go inside-50, scoring from 44.6 per cent of entries.
The dominance of key forward Harry McKay (38 goals) has been a big part of that, but with the 203cm Tom De Koning also quickly developing there might be more improvement to come in that area.
Carlton also aims to play a forward-half game and for the most part has been achieving that, ranking sixth in the competition for time in forward half-differential.
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WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
Team defence.
Teach it, train it, emphasise it, show it.
Selflessness and sacrifice are pivotal towards its success and that’s not happening at Carlton.
The players need to bring more defensive intent, but there are also coaching decisions at play, as evidenced in the opening minute against Sydney in Round 11.
Under the new rules it’s now 6,6,6 and at the first centre bounce, shoring up your backline needs to be prioritised.
But not at Carlton.
Straight away, Teague went with a mindset to attack — based on luck.
Michael Gibbons started at halfback back on Isaac Heeney, with Zac Williams on the wing and Sam Docherty forward.
Gibbons signals to Williams to cover for him as Gibbons storms into the centre bounce contest as Williams works his way into defence and Docherty shifts to the wing.
All good in theory.
But how did it play out?
Sydney’s Callum Sinclair gets a free kick in the ruck and flicks it to Jake Lloyd, who kicks to an unmanned Heeney at half forward. Where was Gibbons?
Heeney then chips a pass to Will Hayward in the forward pocket and the Swans have an easy goal within 42 seconds.
Having a ‘rolling the dice’ mentality at the opening bounce is fraught with danger, especially when at Carlton an aggressive defensive mindset is what’s missing.
Selling and emphasising defensive actions in a must-win game on the road should have been the coaches’ messaging.
SURPRISE PACKET
Matthew Owies is a player that really understands space, which probably comes from his basketball background.
For a young player, he reads the play incredibly well, reacts quickly to the turnover ball and finds space inside-50 in the line of sight of the Carlton ball carrier.
Owies ranks elite for forward-50 tackles and forward-50 marks but he is also manic with his pressure in that part of the ground, which is something Carlton desperately need.
UNDER THE PUMP
Between Sam Docherty, Ed Curnow, Marc Murphy, Eddie Betts, Mitch McGovern and Levi Casboult there are just under 1200 games of AFL experience.
All six are clearly fighting for their AFL survival and Teague must be really strong with selection integrity.
Too many players have been gifted games this year.
I’ve been a great admirer of Murphy over his career but his current form doesn’t warrant selection.
If they continue to play him so he can get to 300 games, selection integrity and performance standards are clearly compromised.
It doesn’t sell the right message to their future generation of players.
Get ruthless, David, and make some hard calls.
Here’s your chance to put your stamp on the club, eliminate self interest and do what the team needs.
Also, does Collingwood’s call on Nathan Buckley force Carlton’s football department review to be even stronger?
The Magpies now have the upper hand as the first team searching for a coach.
ESSENDON
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The Bombers bring real excitement to the game because they want to score and have the capacity to do so.
They are very efficient when they go inside-50 — scoring from 46.2 per cent of entries — and Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti has a huge say in that.
They look to punish the opposition when they force a turnover and average nearly 52 points a game from turnovers, which is a sustainable scoring profile.
Adding another 2-3 goals from turnovers is their next challenge.
Their offence is a huge asset and the three youngsters in Nik Cox, Archie Perkins and Harrison Jones are exciting prospects. They all offer a point of difference.
Cox’s height and athleticism will continue to troubles teams, Perkins is tough and skilful and Jones is a creative forward who always looks for front position.
To be given opportunities at AFL level this year bodes well for both club and the individuals.
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
The clear area of concern is to get the balance right defensively.
They’re a leaky defence and they’ve got some serious work to do in that area.
Essendon ranks 14th in the competition for points against, conceding an average of 92 points against.
All players in all areas of the ground must be on the same page when the opposition have the footy and buy-in to the team defence.
The inability to defend turnovers is particularly problematic, with the Bombers ranked 16th in the competition for opposition scores from turnover.
Against Richmond last weekend, they gave up 101 points from turnovers — which is unheard of and was the Tigers’ most since 2005.
With senior coach Ben Rutten and assistant coach Blake Caracella having come from Richmond where team defence is such a focus, identifying the issues and then finding solutions to fix them shouldn’t be a problem.
This is the area that could hold Essendon back from being a consistent finals performer if they don’t get it right.
How you defend against turnovers is as important as how you score from turnovers.
SURPRISE PACKET
Nick Hind has slotted into a defensive role magnificently after playing as a small pressure forward at St Kilda.
In his 12 games at Essendon, he has clearly excelled in the role vacated by Adam Saad and Connor McKenna.
He’s the Bombers’ fourth-highest disposal winner, he brings speed to the game, makes good decisions and generally doesn’t hesitate because he backs his judgment.
One-time forward Jayden Laverde has also impressed in a new role as an undersized key defender and has produced a consistent season.
Both Hind and Laverde are playing with a bit of dare with ball in hand, which complements the Essendon game style well.
UNDER THE PUMP
You have to question how Dylan Shiel and Jye Caldwell will fit back into this team and the inside-midfield roles they were recruited for.
Andy McGrath’s injury has perhaps made any decisions a little easier.
But given the roles Darcy Parish and Zac Merrett are playing onball at the moment, it’s really important that either Shiel or Caldwell — or perhaps even both — find another role within the team considering how well the midfield mix is going at the moment.
Parish has gone past Dylan Shiel with his tremendous output this year.
So it will be interesting to see if the pair return as part of the starting-four midfield, or find new roles as high half-forwards.
Are they prepared to be sacrificial and selfless and do that?
The Essendon salary cap also looks tight but with possible retirement of Cale Hooker and the uncertainty surrounding Michael Hurley’s physical well being, the Bombers should get active at the trade table and make a serious play for Carlton’s Harry McKay.
Time to be aggressive, Adrian Dodoro.
McKay hasn’t signed at the Blues yet and is exactly the key forward Essendon is searching for.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The Bulldogs strike a potent balance in their game style between defence and attack.
The players are all in-sync when it comes to team defence, which makes them a hard team to score against.
By season’s end they might be ranked No. 1 in the competition in both offence and defence, which shows how hard players are working both ways.
They have a deep midfield led by the 2021 Brownlow Medal favourite in Marcus Bontempelli, along with Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae and Bailey Smith.
Then there is injured pair Josh Dunkley and Adam Treloar to come back into the side.
Between them, the midfield group has an incredible ability to win the footy, which puts an enormous amount of pressure on opposition teams defensively and equates to a very strong territory game.
Down back, the Bulldogs have also tightened up with their contest work in recent weeks.
From rounds 1-7, they ranked 17th for neutralising one-on-one contests and 18th for losing one-on-one contests.
Since Round 8, they rank first in the competition in both statistics.
If you don’t at least neutralise the contest in that area of the ground, opposition sides hurt you.
So that’s a massive shift.
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
How the Bulldogs defend turnovers between the arcs is something they will be monitoring going forward.
Against Richmond in Round 7 and to a lesser extent against Melbourne in Round 11, the Bulldogs would have learnt some valuable lessons as a group.
Richmond’s turnover game between the arcs and fast counter attack was telling as the Tigers exposed the Bulldogs in vulnerable one-on-ones going forward.
Alex Keath and Zaine Cordy were susceptible to the Tigers’ chaos game.
Four weeks later, Melbourne defended the second and/or third handball chain of the Bulldogs the best we’ve seen this year.
The Demons paired off, rather than sending two players to pressure the Bulldogs’ ball carrier.
When an opposition brings that to the Bulldogs next time, how do they counteract it?
Can they adjust and go into a different attacking mode?
SURPRISE PACKET
It’s hard to go past forward-turned-defender Bailey Dale.
He’s become a competent, efficient rebounding defender who looks like he has played down back his whole life.
Only Macrae has had more kicks than Dale for the Bulldogs this year, and why wouldn’t you give him the ball considering he scans the ground to see the best option available and generally hits them.
He’s only had 22 clangers from his 289 disposals this year, which is highly efficient ball use.
Good decision makers and good distributors like Dale can break a game open when the stakes are high.
Cody Weightman also deserves a mention, given he is keeping Mitch Wallis out of the team for the time being.
Weightman brings energy, ranks elite for inside-50 marks, has a capacity to win forward-50 ground ball and is kicking an average of two goals a match.
He has a instinctive mind in an area where you also need to be creative — and that as a combination is hard to defend against.
UNDER THE PUMP
Coach Luke Beveridge is clearly operating under a squad mentality, given the Bulldogs have already played 38 players this year — the highest of any team.
At some point he needs to bed down his best team.
Beveridge seems receptive to bringing players in and out of the team, at the risk of flirting with form.
Josh Schache, Buku Khamis, Louis Butler, Riley Garcia, Lin Jong (albeit injured in game) and Ben Cavarra have all played one game this year.
Is it necessary to bring players in for only one game and then drop them?
You want to know what your best team looks like and give them some continuity of games for at least four to six weeks leading into finals, so Beveridge needs to decide what his best team looks like very soon.
Ruckman Stefan Martin has played a fantastic role this year, but is also under the pump looking to next year.
Will his footy survive another campaign with the body he’s got?
There’s a question mark over that.
The Bulldogs should make a strong play for Richmond’s Callum Coleman-Jones in the view that Tim English will become the No. 1 ruckman and Coleman-Jones the No.2.
Like English, Coleman-Jones can also complement Josh Bruce and Aaron Naughton as a resting third-tall in the forward line.
BRISBANE LIONS
WHAT IT DOES WELL
The Lions play a strong contest/clearance brand that generally equates to being a strong territory team.
It’s no coincidence that after a slow start to their year – particularly in Rounds 1-4 – they have resurrected their season by getting back to their simplistic but effective style.
When their contest game is strong, their offence is really damaging.
In Rounds 5-12 they have averaged 103 points a game, which wins you a lot of games of footy.
The Lions have gone from being hurt defensively on turnover in the opening month to now punishing opposition teams on turnover themselves.
The Lions’ medical team is their other key strength.
Brisbane has had 14 players feature in every game this year — including previously injury-prone players from other clubs in Joe Daniher, Grant Birchall and Lincoln McCarthy.
If those three players aren’t consistently in the best 22 players selected, would the Lions be as dominant as their recent form indicates?
WHAT IT MUST IMPROVE
The Lions must work on their ball movement from the defensive half of the ground.
I understand that they want to play a contest and clearance game and, with that, they probably try to play a little bit slower out of the defensive half of the ground.
However, they use the boundary line coming out of defence more than any other team in the competition.
They’re playing it safe and getting the ball over the line to create a stoppage which they back themselves to win if they don’t mark it in the air.
But for Brisbane to be more complete, Chris Fagan must look at an alternative and go through the corridor with their ball movement.
Daniel Rich, Grant Birchall and Brandon Starcevich are all good ball users and decision makers in the backline and are more than capable of hitting better attacking options to kick start their offence.
As it stands, the Lions are ranked 15th in the competition for defensive 50 to inside-50 chains. They have the tools to be better than that.
SURPRISE PACKET
There is a standout here and it is defender Brandon Starcevich.
The 21-year-old has played every game this season and is tough, uncompromising, reliable, task-oriented and aggressive in everything he does.
I admire defenders who mark the football when they get the opportunity and he does that.
Starcevich has had some been given some big jobs this season but has come out on top in battles with Tom Papley, Jordan De Goey, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Michael Walters, Dustin Martin and Bailey Frisch.
He is a player his teammates would love playing with.
UNDER THE PUMP
I’m challenging Chris Fagan on his midfield balance.
Rotations are generally fixed going into a game, but they don’t need to be permanent.
By that I mean that when you get someone like Melbourne’s Clayton Oliver or Christian Petracca start to have a significant influence on a game, you need to make a move.
When you’ve got players like Devon Robertson and Rhys Mathieson at your disposal, put them into those midfield rotations and give them a run-with role, even for a short period of time to help quell the opposition weapons.
As good as Lachie Neale and Jarryd Lyons are around the contest, they can’t overstay their welcome.
You can stick with your tried and true combinations and planned rotations, but you risk not adjusting to in-game trends quickly enough to help limit the damage of the key opposition threats.
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