AFL salary cap Melbourne: Jay Clark analyses Demons’ list and potential trade for Harley Reid

Melbourne will have to pay a huge price if it wants to secure Harley Reid with the first pick in this year’s draft. Jay Clark analyses how it could happen and the risk involved.

Harry Petty marks for Melbourne.

• What offers would tempt West Coast for No. 1 pick?

They are Melbourne’s four golden eggs.

As much as the club wanted to keep Luke Jackson, the rich returns on last year’s deal with Fremantle have armed the Demons with four first and second-round draft picks, in total, this October.

Where those picks fall exactly in the draft order remains to be seen as the Dockers and Demons look to shore-up finals positions.

But if both make September as expected, Melbourne will have two picks in the teens and two picks between 25 and 35 to make one of the biggest plays of the postseason.

What it means for Melbourne and its list boss Tim Lamb is still being thrashed out in list management meetings.

But what is clear is the game of leapfrog is on.

Melbourne is one of the clubs best placed to mount a bid for the No. 1 draft pick.

And Gold Coast could play a major role in the Demons’ plans to whiz up the draft order in 2023.

This year could represent a rare opportunity for a club to snare the No. 1 pick off West Coast and snaffle the top underage talent in the country — midfield wrecking ball Harley Reid.

And the Demons’ package of picks, combined with its future first-round draft pick from next year, will give the club the draft capital to potentially scoot all the way up to the top of the draft order.

The hype is massive on Reid, a Bendigo product who has Christian Petracca and Dustin Martin-style traits busting through clearances, pulling in marks overhead and draining long goals.

The kid is a super boot. A powerhouse.

Harley Reid is that guy 💫

Watch the Vic Metro v Vic Country game: https://t.co/YWgc6dPtb1pic.twitter.com/LSHVhcix4S

— AFL (@AFL) September 22, 2022

Harley Reid is considered a certainty to be taken as the No. 1 pick. Picture: Michael Klein

And from the moment he turned it on late in an Essendon pre-season intra-club game back in February it was clear Reid could play AFL even this season.

But the goal kicking midfielder must buck a 15-year trend between 2004 to 2018 to become the best player of his draft pool.

And clubs around the competition are currently locked in talks about whether it is best to put your eggs in the No. 1 basket, or take several shots at landing other star players in the top-10, in particular.

On Melbourne’s mind is the new Tasmanian team (if the locals want to build a new stadium), and the need to inject young talent before its superstar veterans begin to pass their peak in a few years.

That is Clayton Oliver, Petracca, Angus Brayshaw, Steven May, Max Gawn and Brodie Grundy. The heartbeat and the spine.

Clayton Oliver will continue to lead the charge for Melbourne.

They are right in the middle of a premiership sweet spot, the Demons, and after losing Jackson and tying-up Kysaiah Pickett there remains a little bit of wiggle room in the salary cap.

Former Bulldog Lachie Hunter looks like one of the smartest pick-ups of last year’s trade period.

But the big talking point inside the bowels of AAMI Park, and for that matter every AFL club’s list management team, is how many early picks Reid, or any other top-five prospect, would be worth sacrificing for.

Last year, Greater Western Sydney gave up pick three and 12 to land mobile forward Aaron Cadman at one, and the season before that Adelaide offered pick four, and two future first-rounders to North Melbourne to nab Jason Horne-Francis at pick one in 2021.

But how often is the player taken at pick one the best player of the draft?

North Melbourne fielded a huge offer from Adelaide for Jason Horne-Francis.

In the 15 years between Lance Franklin’s draft class in 2004 and Sam Walsh’s crew in 2018, not once has the best player been taken with the top pick.

Walsh would have been ahead from the 2018 class before a back injury struck last year, but Port Adelaide’s Zak Butters, and perhaps even Connor Rozee have skated past him this season.

Walsh has been superb over his career so far and enjoyed an exceptional 2021 season winning All-Australian honours, Carlton’s best and fairest and fourth place in the Brownlow Medal in only his third season.

We’ve lauded him in recent years.

Zak Butters and Connor Rozee have gone past Sam Walsh this year.

But hard-nut Butters has been exceptional this season and has firmed into third favourite for this year’s Brownlow Medal, and there are strong arguments for talls Max and Ben King, if not Izak Rankine.

But in the previous 14 drafts, pick ones Brett Deledio, Marc Murphy, Bryce Gibbs, Matthew Kreuzer, Tom Scully, David Swallow, Jon Patton, Lachie Whitfield, Tom Boyd, Paddy McCartin, Jacob Weitering, Andrew McGrath and Cam Rayner don’t wear the crown as the best player from their class.

It is perhaps too early to judge 51-gamer Matt Rowell (2019), Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (2020), Horne-Francis (2021) and Cadman (2022), as they have all played less than four full seasons.

But the point is for all of the hype about an underage talent such as Reid, history says there will be better players scattered throughout the top 10, unless Reid bucks the trend.

Zak Butters has emerged as the premier player from his draft this year.

You have to go way back to 2002 (Brendon Goddard) and 2000 (Nick Riewoldt) to find the standout at No. 1.

It is why West Coast, which split pick three (Harry Sheezel) for nine (Reuben Ginbey) and 14 (Elijah Hewett) last year, will seriously contemplate bumper offers if they come from GWS Giants (currently pick four and six) and Melbourne this year.

And tempting West Coast this year in the first round in the draft will be three gun Western Australians including gun swingman Daniel Curtin, ruckman Mitch Edwards and creative forward Koltyn Tholstrup.

West Coast moved back in the draft order last year but still landed local talent Reuben Ginbey.

DRAFT SLINGSHOT

Melbourne’s four golden eggs are currently slated at picks nine (from Fremantle), 16, 27 (Fremantle) and 34.

The target in trade talks will be Gold Coast’s pick eight (as the ladder currently stands).

And the Suns are open to shuffling back in the draft order to secure a points boost for three academy prospects forward Jed Walter, livewire Jake Rogers and ruckman Ethan Read.

Gold Coast’s pick eight is worth 1551 points on the draft value index.

It means the Demons, for example, could offer pick 16 (1067 points) and pick 27 (703 points) for a total of 1770 points to the Suns in exchange for pick eight, unless a better offer comes.

The Dees have 34 (542 points) as well.

If successful in that deal, Melbourne would be equipped with pick eight (from Gold Coast) and pick nine (from Fremantle) as well as a future first-rounder in talks with West Coast.

Melbourne Demons recruiters and head coach Simon Goodwin (right) watch on during the draft combine in 2019.

The bonus with powerhouse Reid, whose frame already measures up at 185cm and 85kg, is that he would step straight into Melbourne’s best 22, offering another huge boost to the premiership tilt next season.

On the other hand, Melbourne could keep all three picks and add a trio of excellent young prospects from the first round to a list already widely seen as the most talented in the competition.

It would be a huge call to off-load them all for one player such as Reid, but that is how highly the fend-off machine is rated, and even then West Coast could still say no.

Greater Western Sydney, which currently holds picks four and six (from Richmond), and could secure pick five as free agency compensation for Harry Himmelberg, are even better placed.

But the question is whether Reid would want to head to the Giants?

The club has admitted there are some players it can’t take the risk on in the early part of the draft order due to the go-home factor.

The future of the red + blue. 🌟

National Recruiting Manager Jason Taylor discusses the young stars of Melbourne's 2021 premiership side. 🏅

Full interview 👉 https://t.co/r6f16ZUSdtpic.twitter.com/Ft0PqmRgwP

— Melbourne Demons (@melbournefc) October 19, 2021

RIVERS OF GOLD

Jason Taylor has built a reputation as the best recruiter in the caper.

His long list of hits, in particular through the middle and late rounds of the draft, is why the Demons re-signed him to a long-term deal in 2021 and more reason to be confident what they can bring in with the Jackson picks.

For value, it is hard to go past Harmes (rookie), Van Rooyen (19), Jake Bowey (21), Tom Sparrow (27), Charlie Spargo (29), Fritsch (31), Rivers (32) and Harrison Petty (37).

Sharpshooter Bayley Fritsch has turned into a great value pick for the Demons.

Judd McVee, another rookie gem from last year’s national draft leftovers, looks a beauty with his polish and class off half back, while father-son playmaker Taj Woewodin has been emergency for the senior side the last few weeks.

Perhaps observers may wonder about the club’s next generation key position stocks and long-term replacements for Gawn, Grundy, Brown and May?

But the reality is the Dees thought of that last year, adding Oakleigh key forward Matthew Jefferson (pick 15) to partner Van Rooyen down the track, WA key defender Jed Adams (38) and re-signed South Australian ruck Will Verrall (rookie).

Plus there’s mature-age VAFA defender Kye Turner to add an unconventional twist, and athletic goal kicker Blake Howes (38).

Jacob Van Rooyen has taken huge strides this year since debuting.

CAP WIGGLE ROOM

The Demons have handed out some of the longest contracts in the game to tie-up Petracca (2029) and Oliver (2030) on the best part of $1 million a season. That was the market rate at the time.

The superstar duo waived their free agency rights as part of their contracts, while Bayley Fritsch and Christian Salem (2026), Pickett (2027) and Brayshaw (2028) are also in for the long-term.

Collingwood is paying in the vicinity of $200,000 a year of Grundy’s wage, while young Western Australian star Van Rooyen, who would have been high on the WA clubs’ hit lists, is signed until 2025.

Melbourne is getting a bargain thanks to Collingwood paying a large chunk of Brodie Grundy’s contract.

Hard nut Kade Chandler has been targeted by rivals, but is set to stay for at least three years, while Trent Rivers (2027) has shown his versatility stepping into the midfield at times this season.

Midfielder James Jordon is a free agent this year, and could consider his options, while veteran forwards Tom McDonald and Ben Brown’s deals expire next season.

Defender Adam Tomlinson and midfielder Harmes could also explore opportunities elsewhere if enticing multi-year deals are tabled.

The pair’s exit could free up more room in the salary cap if required by the Demons.

But this list is cherry ripe.

The only question is whether the club can capitalise on its talent while the window is wide open.