AFL 2023: The trade offers that could tempt the Eagles to give up top draft prospect Harley Reid

Can Carlton and Richmond fans dare to dream about landing generational talent Harley Reid in this year’s draft? Jon Ralph assesses the state of play and key trade contenders for pick no.1.

If you want Harley Reid, you better come armed with the mother of all trade offers.

A Chris Judd-style trade (pick 3, 20 and Josh Kennedy).

Why?

Because he is that good – bulletproof as far as junior football pedigree goes.

And only a year ago, Port Adelaide got away with a steal of a deal for Jason Horne-Francis.

Pick 8, a future-first-rounder, two mid-50s picks and a swap of 2023 second and third-rounders.

In exchange, the Power got a generational talent who should play 15 seasons as a Patrick Dangerfield-style mid-forward.

West Coast would field and listen to offers for the first pick, but the Eagles are happy to take Reid, given he isn’t the flight risk Harry Sheezel was seen to be when they traded pick 2 for picks 8 and 14 (which became Reuben Ginbey and Elijah Hewett) and some 2023 selections last year.

So if it is the Eagles that secure the No.1 overall pick, what kind of offer would it take to even consider giving up the rights to the Bendigo Pioneers mid-forward?

Likely No. 1 draft pick Harley Reid in action for the AFL Academy side. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

Melbourne

The Demons have their own first-rounder (currently pick 15), their future first-rounder and the Fremantle first-rounder (currently pick 9) acquired in the Luke Jackson trade, which is still likely to be around 10 or later this year if the Dockers’ charge continues.

It’s three first-round picks but they are the worst kind – one likely to push outside of 10 when free agency compo slots in, and two which might be around 20 if the Demons win the flag or compete deep both years.

The Demons could throw in an Adam Tomlinson type given he doesn’t play regularly but he’s 29.

James Jordon is an unrestricted free agent so the Demons can’t include him in a deal.

If you were West Coast, you would ask for Kozzie Pickett and two first-rounders this year just to start the ball rolling.

Melbourne would tell them they were dreaming.

Claremont’s Jacob Van Rooyen is going nowhere.

West Coast would ask for East Fremantle’s Trent Rivers to be thrown into the deal.

But unless the Demons could get a top five pick in this year’s draft, it’s hard to see how a deal gets done.

Hawthorn

This is where it gets interesting because Hawthorn would offer up a pick currently at No.3 and have WA-based talent the Eagles might genuinely be interested in.

Subiaco’s Tyler Brockman and Swan Districts No.6 draft pick Denver Grainger-Barras both fit the age demographic and needs.

Brockman could be anything as a clever, exciting small forward, while Grainger-Barras has not yet lived up to expectations as a strong defensive interceptor.

But if the Eagles list team that watched him so closely as a teen were still in love with him, he is still only 21 and would slot into a succession plan for Jeremy McGovern.

Clearly, it would only be the start of a package for Reid.

And the Hawks are in a similar spot – desperate to maximise all their assets to bring in depth of talent rather than just one quality player per draft.

But Reid, in that midfield alongside Josh Ward, Will Day, Cam Mackenzie and Jai Newcombe, is a mouth-watering prospect.

Denver Grainger-Barras of the Hawks. Photo by Jonathan DiMaggio/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

GWS

GWS have its own first-round pick (pick 4) and the Richmond first-rounder (pick 5) after the Jacob Hopper trade.

Would they trade two top-five picks for pick one?

It’s exactly the kind of trade the Eagles might consider.

If Harry Himmelberg leaves, they could get a third top-10 pick as free agency compensation.

What an awesome platform to get aggressive moving up the draft order.

West Coast would ask for all three selections.

But do they really need another pure inside mid?

Or is Reid so good as a mid-forward, he would complement a midfield with Finn Callaghan, Lachie Ash, Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly?

North Melbourne

If Ben McKay leaves, and the Roos get first-round free agency compensation, they would have their own pick (currently No.2), the McKay pick attached to it (pick 3), and Port Adelaide’s first-rounder from the Horne-Francis trade (currently pick 16).

The Roos could trade two and three for the No.1 overall pick but it’s not a top 10 stacked with elite midfielders so West Coast might still sniff at that deal.

The Roos are keen to take three top 15 picks to the draft so might believe they already have enough mids with Sheezel, George Wardlaw, Jy Simpkin, Luke Davies-Uniacke, Will Phillips and Tom Powell.

Richmond

The Tigers don’t have a first-rounder, they need more elite talls and any deal would start with West Coast asking for the newly contracted Shai Bolton – so it won’t happen.

Bulldog Aaron Naughton . Pic: Michael Klein

Western Bulldogs

The Dogs actually have two players who would be at the front of the queue in a trade for pick 1 in WA locals Aaron Naughton and Tim English.

Clearly, that won’t happen given both are re-signed until the end of 2024 and are going nowhere, with English in the form of his career.

It’s an interesting hypothetical though – if the Dogs could find another ruckman (free agent Scott Lycett, Ivan Soldo), would their fans believe pick 1 for Tim English and their own first-rounder (currently pick 13) was unders or overs?

Depends on how highly you value ruckmen.

Carlton

It works in a passionate talkback caller kind of way but not in reality.

The Blues’ first-rounder (currently pick 8) plus Tom De Koning and throw in WA boy Zac Fisher as the start of a deal.

But if De Koning leaves, it’s down the highway to Geelong or up to Sydney, not to a club in a seven-year rebuild.

Fisher is currently playing VFL and the first-rounder will likely finish outside the top 10.

So the Blues’ renewed investment in the draft – so successful this year with Ollie Hollands, Lachie Cowan and the yet-to-debut Jaxon Binns – will continue but not with the No.1 pick.