Mick McGuane analyses Friday night’s semi final between Hawthorn and Melbourne

CAN the Hawks lift their efficiency in the face of Melbourne’s intense pressure or will the Demons cause chaos? Collingwood premiership hero Mick McGuane dissects Friday night’s semi final between Hawthorn and Melbourne.

Hawthorn and Melbourne will meet in a blockbuster clash on Friday night.

CAN the Hawks lift their efficiency in the face of Melbourne’s intense pressure or will the Demons cause chaos?

COLLINGWOOD premiership hero MICK McGUANE dissects Friday night’s semi final between Hawthorn and Melbourne and pinpoints where the match will be won and lost.

SAM I AM: WEIDEMAN STARS FOR DEMONS

LEHMO: HAWKS HAVE TIGES UNDER CONTROL

James Sicily quarterbacked the Hawks against the Tigers, but his ball use was found wanting. Picture: Michael Klein

WHAT TO EXPECT

HAWTHORN: SKILL RESPONSE

A 55% efficiency return in the back half last Thursday against Richmond was its lowest return for the season. That’s not good enough. The Hawks didn’t handle the Tigers’ pressure at all. In fact, 46% of Richmond’s score came from the Hawks committing 45 defensive half turnovers. That’s the second most by a team in a final. To me, that’s not Hawthorn, and I expect a response from players such as Ryan Burton (44% kicking efficiency), Isaac Smith (50%), James Sicily (56%) and Blake Hardwick (56%). They were all guilty of kicking poorly far too often and don’t tell me that the conditions were the reason. They weren’t.

MELBOURNE: PRESSURE

What speaks volumes for the Demons’ intent was the fact they had 23 F50 tackles against Geelong. That sort of stat complements their territory game. Hawthorn’s defenders will know where the heat is coming from. Likewise, Melbourne know they must apply the same defensive intensity to disallow Hawthorn to get their kick-mark game going. The Hawks want control; the Demons want chaos.

Jarryd Roughead toiled for the Hawks, but they will want more out of Isaac Smith against the Dees. Picture: AFL Media/Getty Images

HAWTHORN

THE KEY

Ball security by foot is their major weapon. That abandoned them against Richmond. The Hawks took only 50 uncontested marks — their second fewest in a game this season. They must get their kick-mark game in motion, something that will give them control of the game. From Rounds 1 to 21, they averaged 87 uncontested marks, but they have dropped alarmingly in Round 22 (73 uncontested marks), Round 23 (60) and in the qualifying final (50). If this remains the status quo against Melbourne, the Hawks will be out of this year’s final series in straight sets.

THE CHALLENGE

Alastair Clarkson’s side must equalise the territory battle, as their 37 inside 50s to 66 against Richmond last week just won’t cut it. It was clearly Hawthorn’s worst differential all season. That is why controlling the ball by foot is such an important facet of this contest. They were reluctant to go forward and take ground with the ball and this must be mastered. Not only will it give their forwards greater opportunities to be involved but also it will give them the chance to create turnovers in their F50, which is how they want the game to be played.

THE THEME

Hawthorn must get their want by playing a controlled game. This allows them to “defend” with ball in hand. They will be aware Melbourne will want a chaotic game where the ball is “alive” so they can apply their pressure. By getting their kick-mark game going, it takes a strength of Melbourne away from the contest. Put simply, the Hawks cannot return a kick-to-handball ratio of 1.19: 1 like they did in last week’s first half against Richmond. Overusing the ball by hand keeps Melbourne in the defensive hunt for pursuit of the ball.

MELBOURNE

THE KEY

Pressure and contested possessions are the keys to Melbourne’s success. Pressuring Hawthorn into rushed decisions to force turnovers will help determine the result. Defending Hawthorn’s ball movement will be at the forefront of Simon Goodwin’s mind. The Demons did this brilliantly against Geelong on Friday night, as the Cats had 82 opportunities to move the ball from the defensive half of the ground to I50 — yet did it only 19 times. Now that’s a team with good defensive traits.

Max Gawn looms large for the Demons. Picture: AFL Media/Getty Images

THE CHALLENGE

Controlling the emotional rollercoaster. Pats on the back from last week has no relevance to this week. The hard work needs to be replicated and more so, the deeper you go into a finals campaign. Can the players reload with the urgency and intensity that was so evident against the Cats? Effort is attitudinal. To tackle and pressure is an intent. Melbourne’s pressure last week was through the roof, recording a pressure factor of 200, which is massive, considering the AFL average is 180. COMPLACENCY is the disease of success. It can set in quickly if a group or individuals get caught up in all the adulation of one finals win.

ROBBO: COULD IT BE THE BABY DEMONS?

THE THEME

The Demons must dominate territory. Getting the ball forward at speed and locking it into F50 is a non-negotiable against the Hawks. The Demons are ranked No.1 for time in forward half this year. The reason — they have been the No.1 contested possession team all year, they get strong field position through their long kicking game and they feed off the dominance of Max Gawn’s ruckwork.

Clayton Oliver had a mountain of it against Geelong and will again be at the coalface. Picture: AAP

MAGNET BOARD

HAWTHORN

Don’t play two specialist ruckman. I’m tipping Jonathon Ceglar will be omitted. Ryan Schoenmakers should come back into the team to compliment their forward line when Jarryd Roughead is used as a mobile ruckman and Ben McEvoy goes forward or is interchanged. James Frawley must go to Tom McDonald. Ben Stratton will be a loss. I’d consider recalling Kaiden Brand to play on Sam Weideman. Daniel Howe goes to Clayton Oliver to challenge him at stoppages and take away his ability to win first possession. Howe must stop going to ground at crucial situations.

MELBOURNE

No change here. The Demons can ill afford to allow the Hawks’ best midfielder to roam free. The much respected and disciplined James Harmes locks onto Tom Mitchell. What an enthralling battle this will be. Two competitive bulls and neither will give an inch. Aaron vandenBerg is a very underrated forward. He is creative and tough but very defensively minded all the same. He had seven tackles last game, including two inside F50 tackles. James Sicily will be better for last week’s game and at his best poses an intercept threat to Melbourne’s I50 entries if they bomb it in. Vandenberg is my go-to-man to ensure Sicily is not just going to play the game on his terms. Sicily likes to kick the ball and set the Hawks up. His time on the ball must be diminished. This is where Vandenberg comes into play. His “snap” transition (from offence to defence and back to offence again) is as good as anyone in Melbourne’s forward line and he is the one man who can spook Sicily.

PREDICTION: Melbourne by 24 points