Moneyball: Collingwood to reward Ned Long with bigger deal, son of a gun facing big choice,
Hawthorn’s blunder in delisting Ned Long will force Collingwood to rip up the midfielder’s cheap as chips contract to secure him long-term. Plus Oscar Allen, Ryley Sanders and more in Moneyball.
AFL
Don't miss out on the headlines from AFL. Followed categories will be added to My News.
Collingwood will likely rip up Ned Long’s current cheap-as-chips deal to 2027 and reward him for his massive improvement at year’s end.
And the Pies will move forward on a new deal for plus-30 Jamie Elliott in coming weeks given his irrepressible form.
Long has been one of footy’s success stories as a delisted Hawks midfielder picked up in the mid-season draft.
But while the Pies love his development as a tough inside mid they are also aware of his status as an unrestricted free agent.
Former Hawk Long has had a spectacular season for the Pies, having been locked away for two more seasons to 2027 in March this year.
The club was aware of his excellent summer and strong support from coaches and got in early.
Long would have some performance-based incentives in his deal but clearly would be underpaid compared to output given his performances this year as a 22-year-old with a bright future.
Any player delisted across their career becomes an unrestricted free agent every time they come out of contract.
So it would make sense to pay him what he is worth across the next two years in a new deal brokered later this year and retain him long-term rather than bask in the cut-price contract.
Elliott will get a new deal, likely for multiple years, given his superb form in kicking 34.16 in 13 games.
Ideally the Pies would hold off with their plus 30s until the end of the year given so much can change but Collingwood is open to working on a new deal to ensure he stays.
But they know if they hold off on the unrestricted free agent a rival will swoop in, with the Pies also opening talks over a deal for future AFL games record holder Scott Pendlebury.
BLUES’ WAR GAMING DE KONING CALL
Carlton is running a dual list strategy as it awaits Tom De Koning’s decision on whether he stays at the club or takes up a mind-blowingly lucrative offer from St Kilda.
The Blues have set no deadline on a TDK decision, but Moneyball understands they have strong contingency plans in place just in case.
It means they are already in the marketplace for trade and free agency acquisitions for later this year, as De Koning mulls over the Saints’ stunning $1.7m per season offer over seven years.
One of those players who could be in the mix is contracted Magpie big man Darcy Cameron, who is seeking a new deal with Collingwood.
Carlton’s No.1 priority is to keep De Koning and it remains hopeful the star ruckman’s connection to his teammates could yet see him remain loyal and stay, despite a difference of more than $600,000 per season.
The difference equates to almost $5m across the life of the two offers.
Carlton almost certainly won’t up their financial ante to the soon-to-be 26-year-old, given it could have an impact on future deals, including Sam Walsh, who comes out of contract at the end of next season.
The Blues believe they have tabled a fair and reasonable offer, with enough levers included, even allowing for the huge monetary gulf.
De Koning sat down with incoming Carlton chief executive Graeme Wright last Friday in an effort to get more clarity on his long-term vision for the club.
Some have seen that as a positive sign he hasn’t made a final decision yet, despite strong industry speculation the Saints’ offer could be too good to refuse.
Carlton has started negotiations with Jack Silvagni on a new deal, but will likely leave other discussions on out of contract players until later in the year when it gets a clearer picture on De Koning’s future.
BIG CHOICE FACING YOUNG GUN
Jeff White’s son Kalani is likely to make a decision on the tug of war between Gold Coast and Melbourne in mid-August after getting through the Under-18 championships and another two games at Casey.
Kalani White can be a Demons father-son in November’s national draft but has also been in the Gold Coast academy for many years.
A second for Kalani White and we could get used to this. #VFL
— Melbourne Footy (@MelbourneFooty) June 14, 2025
pic.twitter.com/iaC52ldkwe
He kicked two goals in the VFL for Casey (Melbourne’s VFL affiliate) last weekend after a quiet first Allies game in the national championships.
While he will take time to develop he is an athletic freak and has huge upside.
White has told his son that while he would love him to play at Melbourne, he should follow his gut feel and pick the club where he feels most comfortable.
The Demons would seem to give him a clearer path to AFL football given they lack quality emerging talls and back-up ruckmen.
The Suns have Jarrod Witts then Ned Moyle and 2023 pick nine Ethan Read behind him as ruck prospects.
White has been with the Suns academy since his early teens, but with Beau Addinsal, Zeke Uwland and Dylan Patterson as potential first-rounders at the Suns he could be in a key position and academy logjam.
The Suns still don’t know how many academy players they will bid on but he is further back in the pecking order given little exposed form at Under-18 level.
LIONS WARY OF BEING BURNED TWICE
Will Brisbane’s mixed experience with injury-prone Tom Doedee influence their free agency chase for Oscar Allen?
Adelaide has had a series of wins over its list management targets but the one it let go has also been vindicated by the Crows.
Adelaide made the contentious call to pull its contract offer for free agent Tom Doedee, believing that his two knee reconstructions made it unlikely he would play elite football again.
He had suffered a left knee reco in 2019 then in round 12, 2023 his right knee gave way.
The club reduced its offer, with Brisbane and Collingwood keen on the intercept defender.
He got to the Lions on a four-year deal worth over $700,000 but unfortunately suffered a third knee reconstruction last year.
While he has been able to play seven VFL games he has suffered lingering knee soreness and hasn’t played an AFL game for the Lions.
With Jack Payne now injured the Lions will consider him as a replacement at a club that has rehabilitated a heap of injured stars including Joe Daniher, Linc McCarthy and Grant Birchall.
Allen is firmly in the Lions’ sights, with Hawthorn having pulled out after being told they might need to offer him six years at $1 million to lure him east.
But while the Lions will back in their medical team to get Allen right, he does present another sizeable risk.
SAINTS’ PROGRESS ON WANGANEEN-MILERA DEAL
St Kilda remains in constant contact with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera’s manager Ben Williams, with his retention seen as a key plank of the Saints’ stated desire to have the best Indigenous program in the AFL.
Wanganeen-Milera is weighing up bids from Port Adelaide and Adelaide about a return to his home state, while the Saints are committed to matching the offers put to the rebounding half back.
As this masthead revealed earlier in the year, the Saints and coach Ross Lyon are committed to driving the club’s Indigenous program to make it the best in the country.
They currently have six First Nations AFL players – second in the league behind Gold Coast – with Wanganeen-Milera forming a big part of their drive to be the best.
The club hopes Lyon’s close connection with Wanganeen-Milera could be the difference in keeping in Moorabbin, though the SA clubs are coming hard for him.
One of Wanganeen-Milera’s closest mates at the club, Isaac Keeler, has always attracted interest from the two South Australian clubs.
Keeler is out of contract, but is likely to win a new one-year deal with the Saints.
St Kilda now has a dedicated Yawa (which translates to journey) room at Moorabbin where the portraits of every First Nations AFL and AFLW player to represent the club is displayed.
GIANT MOVES TO KEEP CULT HERO
Greater Western Sydney’s bid to move heaven and earth in retaining Leek Aleer is gaining traction even as he considers a four-year offer from St Kilda.
So desperate were the Giants to get the key defender into the side they have at times played five key talls in the last three weeks.
They also pushed star defender Harry Himmelberg to the wing in part to find room for their first-round draft pick.
GWS is adamant they haven’t played him in the past four games to keep him at the club.
They just believed his form was so strong at VFL they had to reward him, having already offered him a fresh two-year deal.
He wants to play with his mates and is considering staying but is also being reminded he can set up his financial future at a rival club.
He is also having to play on a range of smalls which doesn’t maximise his football gifts.
But he joins Tom De Koning as a fiercely loyal teammate who would love to stay and yet might end up moving because the money and opportunities are too good elsewhere.
EAGLE SET TO LEARN CONCUSSION FATE
Jeremy McGovern is hopeful of finding out whether he has been medically retired by the end of the week.
Either way his financial future is well set with a nice nest egg after his huge AFL earnings and strong protection from his own contract.
McGovern is signed up to 2026 and the Eagles would be allowed to exempt 90 per cent of that figure out of the salary cap if he was medically retired because of his concussion history.
Essendon could also secure that same protection in Nik Cox’s contract for 2026 after he also met the AFL concussion panel over his future.
Both players could also secure a payout of up to $500,000 from the AFL’s career-ending benefit scheme.
It is understood McGovern also has a strong career-ending insurance clause that would secure him another payout.
While a new severe injury benefit scheme is available to players, they have to prove their future earnings are reduced by more than 40 per cent.
McGovern would like to play on so is less likely to fit the bill for the severe injury scheme.
But both he and the Eagles are protected if he is forced to call it a day.
SANDERS WILL NEED TO MAKE TASSIE CALL
Western Bulldogs youngster Ryley Sanders admits he will “have to make a decision” if his home state Tasmania enters the AFL in 2028 as he shrugs off impending speculation about his future.
The former No. 6 pick will be right up near the top of the wishlist when the Tasmania Devils begin recruiting, having begun his footy career with North Launceston.
As an early draft pick, Sanders holds the customary three-year contract, which will end in 2026.
He said he doesn’t read much media, so Dogs CEO Ameet Bains was keeping him in the loop on the crisis in his home state that threatened the future of the Devils in recent weeks.
But if the Devils do get off the ground, Sanders is aware he will be a target.
“I don’t think about it too much because you don’t know how you are going to feel at the time,” he told this masthead.
“It is still ages away. If it goes ahead then I am going to have to make a decision. I love the Dogs, obviously I live with Ads Treloar and love him and his family to death.
“It would be hard to leave this club, I will tell you that. But you don’t know, I would obviously have that drawcard of being with my family.”
Sanders said any impending Devils interest would leave him with “a good decision to have”.
“I know there is going to be talk about myself and Colby (McKercher of North Melbourne) and a few of the boys that went high in the draft about the Tassie team given we are local boys,” he said.
“But there is speculation all the time … I’m pretty chill man.”
Even though Sanders knows call is coming, the Dogs No. 9 said it would be near impossible to give up the chance of playing with locker mate, Sam Darcy.
“I’m pretty keen to share the locker next to him for the next while, I won’t be leaving if I get to play with him for the rest of my career,” he said.
Sanders had been frustrated playing at half-forward in his first AFL season, given he was a prolific inside midfielder as a junior, but has come to terms with biding his time waiting for a crack in the centre square.
“I obviously struggled with it last year because I want to play midfield,” he said.
“I think this year, having some really good role models, just talking with them and understanding I don’t have to be a full time midfielder in my second year.
“I understand how fortunate I am to be able to play with these great players, especially older players. A guy like Ads (Treloar), he is getting older and I would do anything to play in a premiership with him.
“Hopefully down the track when all these older boys are done, I can step in (to the midfield) for them.”
WARD CONTEMPLATING NEXT STEPS
Giants veteran Callan Ward underwent a knee reconstruction on Tuesday as he contemplates the next step in his AFL career.
While it is almost certain the 35-year-old will bring to a close his 327-game career, he will spend the next few weeks weighing up his future in discussions with his management.
He hasn’t yet ruled out playing on for an 18th AFL season, though it would appear unlikely given his family relocated to Melbourne this year while he continued to chase that elusive Giants’ flag.
Already several AFL clubs have tentatively reached out to Ward’s management about a possible move into coaching at some stage.
The Giants, too, are endeavouring to see if there could be a role for the man who currently holds the games’ record for the club.
Ward suffered a torn ACL earlier late last month against Richmond, with his stirring three-quarter time speech helping to inspire the Giants to a stunning comeback win.
‘Vile behaviour’: Capper banned by the AFL
Former cult hero Warwick Capper has copped a huge whack from the AFL over his conduct at last year’s grand final at the MCG.
‘That stinks’: Capper hits out over five-year ban
Warwick Capper has been banned from attending all AFL venues for five years and fined after obscene behaviour to women at the MCG – and he’s not happy about it. See his response here.