Brownlow Medal betting tips: Best bets for every club
Lachie Neale is a lay down misere to salute in Sunday night’s Brownlow Medal count, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t a ton of betting action elsewhere. Our experts run the rule over every club to find the best bets of the year.
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Having a sneaky bet on the Brownlow Medal has become a time-honoured tradition but, with Lachie Neale so short in the betting, for those punters not adventurous enough to tip against him, they have to look elsewhere for value.
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Fortunately, our experts have crunched the numbers, compared that with Champion Data’s picks and come up with some value in each club.
See analysis from Chris Cavanagh, Simeon Thomas-Wilson and Nick Smart below and follow Jamie Tate’s betting strategy.
ADELAIDE
HERALD SUN: Laird 8; M. Crouch, O’Brien, Sholl 3; Doedee 2; Milera, Smith, B. Crouch, Seedsman, Stengle, McAdam 1.
CHAMPION DATA: Laird 7; M. Crouch 4; Sholl, Smith 2; Keays, B. Crouch, Sloane, Gibbs 1.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.75 Laird; $2.75 M. Crouch; $8 O’Brien; $13 Smith, B. Crouch; $51 Walker, Sloane.
THE TIP: The Crows’ struggles for most of the season mean there won’t be many votes for Adelaide players. But if you are convinced ruckmen can be noticed by the umpires then Reilly O’Brien, who won the Crows’ club champion award, looms as serious value at $8. A safer bet would be Matt Crouch at $2.75 who would be a good chance to beat Rory Laird ($1.75).
BRISBANE LIONS
HERALD SUN: Neale 26; Andrews, Lyons 8; McCluggage, Rich 5; J. Berry 3; Birchall 2; Cameron, Witherden 2, Zorko 1.
CHAMPION DATA: Neale 23; J. Berry 8; Zorko 6; J. Lyons 5; Rayner, Hipwood, Rich 3; McCluggage, Witherden, Andrews 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS (without Neale): $1.35 J. Lyons; $6.50 Zorko; $8 J. Berry; $9 McCluggage; $13 Andrews: $21 Hipwood, Rich.
THE TIP: Harris Andrews polled four Brownlow votes in 95 home-and-away matches before this season. He ain’t polling. Lyons polled a career-best 13 votes last year and has been just as good this season. Lyons wins, but at $1.35 he’s worth only a small outlay at best.
CARLTON
HERALD SUN: Walsh 9; Cripps 8; Martin 6; Weitering, Betts 5; Docherty, Kennedy, E. Curnow 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Cripps 15; E. Curnow 6; Murphy 4; Docherty, Betts, Petrevski-Seton 3; Jones, Walsh, Martin 1.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.65 Walsh; $2.10 Cripps; $15 E. Curnow; $17 Martin; $34 Murphy; $41 Docherty.
THE TIP: Umpires notice Patrick Cripps — 26 and 20 votes in the past two counts. Sam Walsh snagged six votes in his debut season in 2019, an impressive effort considering many Rising Star winners fail to record a Brownlow vote. Cripps is value here at $2.10.
COLLINGWOOD
HERALD SUN: Adams 12; Treloar 9; Pendlebury 7; De Goey 6; Grundy 5; Sidebottom 4; Howe 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Adams 14; Pendlebury 11; Sidebottom 8; Treloar 6; Grundy, De Goey 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.57 Adams; $2.25 Pendlebury; $11 Treloar; $13 Grundy; $41 De Goey.
THE TIP: Taylor Adams is the Magpies’ best polling hope. Scott Pendlebury has a fantastic Brownlow record — 13 votes or more in each of the past 11 seasons. But Pendlebury missed four matches, Adams played them all, and Adams kicked nine goals to the captain’s one. Adams good value here.
ESSENDON
HERALD SUN: Merrett 10; Shiel 9; McGrath 6; Ridley 4; Zaharakis 3; Townsend, Saad 2
CHAMPION DATA: Merrett 14; Saad 11; Shiel 7; Zaharakis 3; Langford 2; Smith, Daniher, Hurley, Ridley 1.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.10 Merrett; $6 Shiel; $7 McGrath; $51 Zaharakis, Saad.
THE TIP: Youngster Jordan Ridley won Essendon’s B&F count from Zach Merrett, but Merrett wins here. The left-footer has polled 19, 14, 10 and 16 Brownlow votes in each of the past four seasons. He was strong again in 2020, but only kicked two goals from the midfield. Merrett wins, but at $1.10 he’s only good for multis.
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FREMANTLE
HERALD SUN: Fyfe 9; Walters 8; Brayshaw 7; Mundy 6; Taberner, Cerra 5; Serong, Acres 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Fyfe 12; Mundy 9; Cerra 7; Walters 6; Ryan 3; Serong, Brayshaw, Lobb 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.25 Fyfe; $5 Brayshaw; $7 Mundy; $10 Walters; $21 Ryan; $34 Cerra; $101 Serong.
THE TIP: Nat Fyfe has polled 174 Brownlow votes in 162 home-and-away games before this season. The umpires know that man bun! He only played 14 games this year, but averaged 21.4 disposals per match and kicked 10 goals. He wins here and is a lock for your multis.
GEELONG
HERALD SUN: Hawkins, Dangerfield 13; Menegola 12; C. Guthrie 8; Stanley, Duncan 5; Selwood 3
CHAMPION DATA: Dangerfield 14; Menegola 13; Hawkins 9; C. Guthrie 8; Duncan 7; Selwood 4; Stewart, Steven 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.85 Dangerfield; $2.75 Menegola; $4.50 C. Guthrie; $10 Hawkins; $21 Duncan; $101 Selwood.
THE TIP: Patrick Dangerfield fought off Tim Kelly last year to top Geelong’s voting — 27 to 24 — and he has another battle on his hands here. Sam Menegola’s 2020 numbers stand up strongly against Dangerfield’s but being recognised by the umpires is what this game is all about. Menegola’s career-best in four previous seasons is seven votes in 2018. Seven of Dangerfield’s past eight seasons have returned 21 votes or more. Dangerfield the value here.
GOLD COAST
HERALD SUN: Rowell 9; Miller 6; Anderson 5; Weller, Greenwood 4; Witts, Ainsworth 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Rowell 7; Miller 6; Weller 5; Anderson 4; Greenwood, Rankine 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.10 Rowell; $7 Miller; $9 Greenwood; $21 Weller, Swallow; $23 Witts; $34 Anderson.
THE TIP: Does wunderkind Matt Rowell win here after just four and a bit games? You betcha! Eight or nine votes to Rowell is enough to win this race and he’s every chance to receive maximum votes in Rounds 2, 3 and 4. No huge investment at $1.10, but he’s a must for multis.
GWS GIANTS
HERALD SUN: Whitfield 12; Greene 8; Kelly 7; Perryman 6; Haynes 4; Coniglio, Williams, de Boer 2.
CHAMPION DATA: Whitfield 9; Kelly, Coniglio 8; Haynes 7; Greene 6; Perryman 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.75 Whitfield; $3.80 Kelly, Greene; $15 Coniglio; $17 Taranto; $21 Haynes, Perryman.
THE TIP: Toby Greene always catches the eye. He booted 12 goals in total in wins against Geelong, Collingwood and Richmond in the opening eight rounds. It might be enough for him to hold on at odds, especially seeing GWS’s finish to the season was so poor and no Giant will come home hard. He’s worth a dabble at $3.80.
HAWTHORN
HERALD SUN: Mitchell 11; Worpel 5; Shiels 4; Wingard, Smith, O’Meara, Gunston 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Mitchell 6; Wingard 5; O’Meara, Shiels 4; Smith, Sicily 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.28 Mitchell; $2.75 Wingard; $13 O’Meara; $26 Gunston; $51 Shiels; $101 Worpel, Burgoyne.
THE TIP: What a superb effort it would be if 2018 Brownlow medallist Tom Mitchell tops Hawthorn’s voting after missing all last year with a broken leg. Chad Wingard should hold the club lead after four rounds, but Mitchell’s back half of the season should see him get to the front late. Mitchell is one for your multis.
MELBOURNE
HERALD SUN: Petracca 14; Oliver 11; Gawn 10; Viney 6; May, Langdon 4; Pickett 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Petracca 12; Oliver, Gawn 10; May, Viney 8; Brayshaw 4.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.05 Petracca; $5 Gawn; $10 Oliver; $51 Viney, May.
THE TIP: Christian Petracca could go close overall. How close? TAB has him listed as second favourite to take out the medal behind Lion Lachie Neale. Also expect midfielder Clayton Oliver to poll well. If Petracca for whatever reason fails to sway the umpires, Oliver is worth a speck ($10) to poll the most for Melbourne.
NORTH MELBOURNE
HERALD SUN: Goldstein 7; Anderson 6; Polec 5; Cunnington, McDonald 3; Zurhaar 2.
CHAMPION DATA: Higgins, Goldstein, Polec 6; Hall, Cunnington 3; Anderson 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $2.75 Anderson; $3.25 Higgins, Goldstein; $6 Simpkin; $8 Polec; $51 Dumont.
THE TIP: Much like its woeful season, it looms as a long Brownlow night for the Kangas. No North Melbourne player will get to 10 votes, making for a tight contest to be the top Roo. It might come down to whether Jed Anderson polls in the last round against West Coast. Anderson has never snagged a vote in 63 games before this season. Shaun Higgins is a proven vote getter and is worth a very small investment here.
PORT ADELAIDE
HERALD SUN: Boak 20; Wines 9; Dixon 8; Rockliff, Gray 6; Rozee, Butters 5; Houston 4; Powell-Pepper 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Boak 18; Wines 14; Rockliff 7; Dixon 6; Gray, Ebert 5; Jonas 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS (without Boak): $1.65 Wines; $2.90 Rockliff; $7 Dixon, Gray; $26 Rozee; $41 Butters.
THE TIP: Ollie Wines and Tom Rockliff are the frontrunners in a market without Travis Boak. Rockliff offers value out of the two, after again amassing a lot of the ball. Has Charlie Dixon kicked enough goals to cause an upset? Probably not. Dixon, 30, has never registered more than eight votes in a season.
RICHMOND
HERALD SUN: Martin 13, Bolton 7; Short 6; Grimes 5; Lambert, Cotchin 4; Prestia, Riewoldt 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Martin 19; Cotchin 6; Short 5; Lynch, Lambert, Riewoldt 4; McIntosh 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS (without Martin): $2.40 Bolton; $2.60 Cotchin; $4 Lambert; $7 Short; $21 Houli; $26 Grimes; $34 Riewoldt; $51 Lynch.
THE TIP: Not sure there is any great value here. Martin will top the votes and Bolton should finish second — but not by much. Bolton catches the eye with his pace and skill, kicks goals and has stepped up since he polled five votes last season. Can’t see Cotchin polling enough votes off 13 games to be a threat.
ST KILDA
HERALD SUN: Steele 19; Billings, Marshall 10; Butler 7; Jones 4; Gresham, Coffield 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Steele 13; Billings 10; Jones 6; Ross 5; Membrey, Gresham 4; Ryder 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS (without Steele): $1.85 Jones; $2.80 Billings; $4 Marshall; $10 Butler; $21 Gresham.
THE TIP: Zak Jones’ Brownlow voting history is not pretty — just two votes from his 83 H&A games in six seasons at Sydney. Rounds 2 and 12 could decide who wins between Jones and Jack Billings when both will vie for best-afield honours. The change in guernsey looks poised to do the trick here — Jones just.
SYDNEY
HERALD SUN: Parker 11; Kennedy 6; Papley, Rampe 4; Rowbottom, Lloyd 3; Heeney, Mills 2.
CHAMPION DATA: Parker 11; Kennedy 6; Lloyd 5; Heeney 3; Florent, Mills, Rampe 2.
TAB CLUB ODDS (without Parker): $2.25 Kennedy; $4 Lloyd; $5 Papley; $7 Heeney; $13 Mills; $17 Rowbottom; $21 Florent; $26 Rampe.
THE TIP: Tom Papley looks value here. His middle part of the season was flat, but his first eight games were super impressive and his final two games also strong. He kicked three or more goals on three occasions and two goals five other times in a low-scoring season. Kennedy played only 12 games and was injured early in one of those. Papley is worth having a few shillings on.
WEST COAST
HERALD SUN: Naitanui 16; Kelly 11; Ryan 7; Kennedy, McGovern 6; Yeo, Gaff 4.
CHAMPION DATA: Gaff 14; Kennedy, Kelly 7; McGovern 6; Sheed, Hurn 5; Yeo 4
TAB CLUB ODDS: $2.60 Kelly; $2.75 Naitanui; $4.50 Gaff; $7 Sheed, Kennedy; $9 Ryan; $26 Shuey.
THE TIP: Andrew Gaff historically receives votes and at $4.50 looms as serious value. Nic Naitanui is second favourite after an outstanding 2020, but has reached double-figures just once in 10 previous seasons (10 votes in 2012). Tim Kelly had some strong games, but only kicked five goals after 18 majors helped earn him 24 votes last year. Gaff is worth a strong go if you like his chances.
WESTERN BULLDOGS
HERALD SUN: Bontempelli 13; Macrae, English 9; Liberatore 7; Daniel, Hunter 5; Bruce, B. Smith, Dunkley, Crozier 3.
CHAMPION DATA: Macrae 15; Bontempelli 14; Johannisen 6; Hunter 4; English, Libertore 3.
TAB CLUB ODDS: $1.85 Bontempelli; $1.95 Macrae; $21 English; $26 B. Smith, Daniel; $34 Liberatore, Hunter.
THE TIP: Neck-and-neck between Bontempelli and Macrae … again. They each polled 22 votes last season. Then it’s daylight third. Macrae had another consistent year and found plenty of the footy, but kicked only three goals. Bontempelli’s 11 goals from the midfield might help give him the edge with the umpires. “The Bont” just.
JAMIE TATE’S BETTING STRATEGY
The bookies are a notoriously tough nut to crack, but there are dollars to be found among the club-by-club betting.
Last year’s count was a window into what can be uncovered:
* Brodie Grundy ($2.40) defeated Adam Treloar ($1.65) by 23 votes to 18 at Collingwood.
* Jaeger O’Meara ($3) pipped James Worpel ($2) by 11 votes to 10 at Hawthorn.
* Bachar Houli ($2.20) beat Dion Prestia ($1.65) by 11 votes to eight in a Richmond market without Dustin Martin.
* Seb Ross ($4.50) shaded Jack Billings ($1.14) by 12 votes to 11 at St Kilda.
* Elliot Yeo ($4) surpassed Luke Shuey ($2.05) and Andrew Gaff ($3.25) by 17 votes to 15 and 13 respectively at West Coast.
It’s rare that the super short-priced favourites are toppled. Where can we find value this year?
BROWNLOW MEDAL CRYSTAL BALL
Can anyone catch Lachie Neale?
The Brisbane midfielder is the raging favourite to win the 2020 Brownlow Medal on Sunday night, and he’s the overwhelming choice of the News Corp’s footy experts.
One reporter has gone rogue and picked an outsider to take home Charlie, while two others are predicting a tie. And there are plenty of interesting names nominated to stand on the podium at the one-off Queensland event.
See who they are tipping to finish top-three on footy’s night of nights.
MARK ROBINSON
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
MICK MALTHOUSE
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood)
MICK McGUANE
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Taylor Adams (Collingwood)
3. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
GLENN McFARLANE
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
3. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
MICHAEL WARNER
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Dustin Martin (Richmond)
3. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
JAY CLARK
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
JON RALPH
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Dustin Martin (Richmond)
3. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
SAM LANDSBERGER
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
LAUREN WOOD
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
NICK SMART
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Dustin Martin (Richmond)
MATT TURNER
1. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
2. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
3. Jack Steele (St Kilda)
CHRIS CAVANAGH
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
3. Jack Macrae (Western Bulldogs)
SCOTT GULLAN
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Nic Naitanui (West Coast)
REBECCA WILLIAMS
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Christian Petracca (Melbourne)
3. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
LIZ WALSH
1. Lachie Neale/Travis Boak tie
2. Jack Steele (St Kilda)
3. Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
SIMEON THOMAS-WILSON
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Jack Steele (St Kilda)
REECE HOMFRAY
1. Travis Boak/Lachie Neale tie
2. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
3. Jack Steele (St Kilda)
JON ANDERSON
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Patrick Dangerfield (Geelong)
CHRIS HONNERY
1. Lachie Neale (Brisbane Lions)
2. Travis Boak (Port Adelaide)
3. Jack Steele (St Kilda)
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