AFL 2023: Likely ins and outs at every club this trade period
What pick would the Crows get for Tom Doedee? Is a Sun on his way to West Lakes? How does Port land all its targets? Here’s how trade period could play out for both SA clubs.
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Footy’s arms race is on.
Even premier Collingwood is looking to improve its list during the player movement period, which officially begins on Friday when free agency opens.
There has already been a lot of wheeling and dealing behind the scenes. Here’s the state of play at every club.
ADELAIDE
The Crows will feel flat that in this perfect season – when everything ended in a cliffhanger or magical moment – they were the ones dudded by a horror umpiring call that cost them a finals berth. So they dust themselves off and go again, looking for some key back cover given Tom Doedee is headed to Brisbane, Sydney or Collingwood. The Crows would hope for second-round compo at best. Melbourne won’t play ball by releasing Harry Petty in a trade for Shane McAdam and the Crows don’t want a mid-30s pick so that trade will take some time or orchestrate. The Crows have some interest in Mabior Chol but might be priced out of the market and have lodged intent on Suns forward Chris Burgess, who they believe can play key back.
LIKELY INS: Potentially Mabior Chol, Chris Burgess
LIKELY OUTS: Tom Doedee, Shane McAdam
BRISBANE LIONS
So close but so far for Brisbane, who will immediately get to work attempting to strengthen this list. The Lions are seen as early favourites for Crows interceptor Tom Doedee. Dev Robertson is genuinely undecided about his future – West Coast has strong interest – after parking talks through finals. The Lions are pessimistic but he’s loyal and finished the year in a grand final side. Dayne Zorko wants to play on and probably will. Tom Fullarton will look elsewhere for chances, while Rhys Mathieson is a free agent who might move on given zero games in 2023.
LIKELY INS: Maybe Tom Doedee
LIKELY OUTS: Possibly Dev Robertson
CARLTON
The Blues are locked and loaded with talent and will hope to bring in Suns mid Elijah Hollands with a later 2023 pick. The Suns will ask for a selection between 10-20 and the haggling will begin. Paddy Dow is likely St Kilda-bound while Zac Fisher is very likely to ask for a trade to the Roos. If he accepts a four-plus year deal the Blues will believe they are entitled to reasonable compensation – perhaps asking for a pick in the 30s as compo. Lochie O’Brien was just delisted despite a year on his deal, showing how tight list spots are at a club that will sign Caleb Marchbank and David Cuningham on one-year deals.
LIKELY INS: Elijah Hollands
LIKELY OUTS: Paddy Dow, Zac Fisher
COLLINGWOOD
The premiers will not rest on their laurels, keen to bring in an interceptor and another ruckman. Rivals believe Todd Goldstein will get to the AIA Centre, while Crows free agent Tom Doedee is a player of interest. Fair enough given Nathan Murphy’s concussion issues and Jeremy Howe contracted but 33. Finlay Macrae is contracted so will stay, but Will Kelly, Trent Bianco and Trey Ruscoe are uncontracted with limited rival interest. Josh Carmichael will get another deal.
LIKELY INS: maybe Tom Doedee
LIKELY OUTS: Trent Bianco, Trey Ruscoe, Will Kelly
ESSENDON
The Dons have secured the services of Roos free agent Ben McKay, who they will need to pay at least $800,000 to trigger first-round compo for North Melbourne. They have interest in St Kilda free agent Jade Gresham and are open to the possibility of trading Dylan Shiel to the Saints. But surely St Kilda would only offer a later pick for the 30-year-old – and ask the Dons to pay some of his deal. They will want a reasonable pick for Power-bound Brandon Zerk-Thatcher – perhaps pick 38 or 44. Given Sam Draper’s groin surgery they will want a back-up ruckman, and Todd Goldstein has nominated the Bombers as his preferred home in 2024.
LIKELY INS: Ben McKay, Todd Goldstein, maybe Jade Gresham
LIKELY OUTS: Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, maybe Dylan Shiel
FREMANTLE
The Dockers are in retention mode, having signed up pre-agent Brennan Cox in recent weeks.
Their biggest task ahead is securing fellow 2024 free agent Sean Darcy despite Geelong’s strong interest in him remaining out of contract so he can assess his options next year.
The Dockers will ask for a future second-rounder for Liam Henry, who is St Kilda bound, but the Saints will hope they can secure him for a future third-rounder.
That was the price paid for Blake Acres, but Henry is younger and a former top 10 pick so the Saints might have to eventually offer more.
Full back Joel Hamling could yet be handed a rookie-list spot but is assessing his options. Of the local boys potentially heading home, Tyler Brockman is West Coast-bound while Dev Robertson would also head to the Eagles if he declines the Lions’ contract offer.
LIKELY INS: No one
LIKELY OUTS: Liam Henry
GEELONG
After a busy trade period last year which saw them secure Ollie Henry, Tanner Bruhn and Jack Bowes, the Cats aren’t expecting to be quite so busy this October. Key defender Esava Ratugolea has requested a trade to Port Adelaide, a deal which will likely get done despite Geelong coach Chris Scott stating that he wants to keep the 25-year-old and indicating the club will play hardball. Geelong holds pick 7 in the national draft, which it is open to trading for the right deal. However, Cats recruiters are said to be “licking their lips” about what might be on offer both there and in the back end of the draft.
LIKELY INS: No one yet
LIKELY OUTS: Esava Ratugolea
GOLD COAST
A Dustin Martin reunion with former Tigers coach Damien Hardwick isn’t going to happen and pending a surprise move from the new Suns’ mentor, it doesn’t look like being an active trade period for the Suns. Gold Coast has invested heavily in the draft in recent years and will do so again this November, when it has loaded up on points to be able to secure up to four Suns Academy players in Jed Walter, Ethan Read, Jake Rogers and Will Graham. Gold Coast is open to the idea of trading wingman Elijah Hollands – the No.7 pick in 2020 – to Carlton for the right price. Forward and back-up ruck Mabior Chol is assessing his options in search of more opportunity, with Hawthorn, North Melbourne, Adelaide and Brisbane Lions all potential suitors.
LIKELY INS: No one yet
LIKELY OUTS: Mabior Chol, Elijah Hollands
GWS GIANTS
The Giants are quite happy with where their list is at, with first-year coach Adam Kingsley having taken the group from 16th on the ladder to a heartbreaking one-point preliminary final defeat. After losing Tim Taranto, Jacob Hopper, Bobby Hill and Tanner Bruhn last year, sizeable change is not forecast this trade period. Adelaide key forward Elliott Himmelberg is keen to make a move to GWS to join his brother Harry after being starved of opportunities at the Crows over the past 18 months. Giants ruckman Matt Flynn has been linked to West Coast, with the 26-year-old having fallen behind Kieren Briggs in the ruck pecking order at GWS this year.
LIKELY INS: Elliott Himmelberg
LIKELY OUTS: Matt Flynn
HAWTHORN
It shapes as another busy trade period for the Hawks, who are looking to bring in talent but also look set to lose some. Key forward Jacob Koschitzke has requested a trade to Richmond, after finding himself in and out of the Hawthorn side this year. Fellow forward Tyler Brockman has requested a trade to West Coast. The Hawks have expressed interest in Ben McKay, Liam Henry and Esava Ratugolea, but they have each nominated other clubs. Gold Coast forward Mabior Chol has been sounded out to help cover for the loss of Koschitzke, but also has interest from other clubs. Essendon rookie Massimo D’Ambrosio has requested a trade to Hawthorn after lacking opportunities at the Bombers this season.
LIKELY INS: Massimo D’Ambrosio, maybe Mabior Chol
LIKELY OUTS: Jacob Koschitzke, Tyler Brockman
MELBOURNE
One of the big dominoes in this year’s trade period is Demons ruckman Brodie Grundy, who looks Sydney-bound. Grundy’s move to Melbourne during the trade period last year was a failed experiment in the end, with the former Magpie finding himself on the outer by the end of the season. Melbourne should get an early second-round pick in exchange for Grundy. Unrestricted free agent James Jordon has also chosen Sydney as his destination of choice, after the midfielder played 18 games for Melbourne this year. Adelaide forward Shane McAdam has requested a trade to the Demons, after kicking 12 goals across seven games for the Crows this season.
LIKELY INS: Shane McAdam
LIKELY OUTS: Brodie Grundy, James Jordon
NORTH MELBOURNE
The Kangaroos are going to look even thinner in the backline next year, with key defender Ben McKay poised to depart for Essendon through free agency. Veteran ruckman Todd Goldstein is also out the door, with Collingwood, Essendon and St Kilda all potential suitors. North Melbourne is firmly in the market for a few experienced players, though, including Sydney’s Dylan Stephens and Carlton’s Zac Fisher. The club has also been linked to Gold Coast forward Mabior Chol. A big national draft also awaits, with the Kangaroos already holding pick two and likely to receive pick 3 as free agency compensation for McKay.
LIKELY INS: Dylan Stephens, Zac Fisher
LIKELY OUTS: Ben McKay, Todd Goldstein
PORT ADELAIDE
Footy boss Chris Davies and list manager Jason Cripps face an arduous task getting some big deals done. How can the Power bring in each of Esava Ratugolea, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher and Jordon Sweet given they don’t hold a first-round pick this year? Plus Richmond big man Ivan Soldo has been rumoured as another target. Hard to see all of them getting done – it would be a monster effort and the 2024 first-rounder must be on the table to grease the wheels. Scott Lycett looks finished at Alberton, while former Dons goalsneak Orazio Fantasia is another Port player worth watching.
LIKELY INS: Esava Ratugolea, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Jordon Sweet
LIKELY OUTS: Scott Lycett, potentially Orazio Fantasia
RICHMOND
Much quieter off-season expected as Adem Yze finds his feet at Punt Rd after the Tigers brought in Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper last year. Jacob Koschitzke has been earmarked from Hawthorn to fill Jack Riewoldt’s position and that should get done for a mid-draft pick. Ruck Ivan Soldo has long been rumoured to be looking around but the Tigers want to keep him.
LIKELY INS: Jacob Koschitzke
LIKELY OUTS: Ivan Soldo
ST KILDA
The Saints are keen to keep Jade Gresham and can match any offers for the restricted free agent, but he has been wooed elsewhere. Do the Saints look for a midfield spark and orchestrate a deal to get Dylan Shiel from Essendon? Paddy Dow has long been mooted as a target from Carlton and the Blues won’t drive a hard bargain. Jack Billings is contracted but wants a move. Nick Coffield has drawn interest across the league, and hardworking midfielder Hunter Clark is out of contract. Whispers about Dougal Howard seem to have petered out. St Kilda had a very good first year under Ross Lyon but know the list needs improvement.
LIKELY INS: Paddy Dow, maybe Dylan Shiel
LIKELY OUTS: Jade Gresham, Jack Billings
SYDNEY
The footy world expects Brodie Grundy to be well and truly moved in to a harbourside villa by the early days of the trade period, likely for an early second-round pick. He will be joined by James Jordon, as the fellow Demon walks to the Swans as a free agent. Left-footer Dylan Stephens wants out and the former No.5 draft pick would be a great fit at North Melbourne. What the return is for such a high-valued talent will be interesting. The Swans missed Ben McKay and need some defensive help so will no doubt continue to sniff around the market.
LIKELY INS: James Jordon, Brodie Grundy
LIKELY OUTS: Dylan Stephens
WESTERN BULLDOGS
Despite falling short of the finals, the Dogs have been quiet in the lead-in to the silly season. Bailey Smith is staying, while back-up ruck Jordon Sweet wants to go to Port Adelaide. The Dogs may keep Buku Khamis after he considered his options. The Dogs are eyeing father-son Jordan Croft so have to be mindful of their draft hand.
LIKELY INS: No one yet
LIKELY OUTS: Jordon Sweet
WEST COAST
Does Elliot Yeo appear on the trade market? The Eagles don’t have interest in moving him but he would raise the bar this trade period. Andrew Gaff could also move, but the market is cold after an awful season. Forward Jake Waterman had a turbulent year but looks likely to stay. The Eagles need ruck help and have targeted depth Giant Matthew Flynn, while young Hawk Tyler Brockman will return home as a useful forward, and neither should cost much.
LIKELY INS: Matthew Flynn, Tyler Brockman, maybe Dev Robertson
LIKELY OUTS: No one yet
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