Wannon electorate 2025: Dan Tehan, Alex Dyson

Alex Dyson has conceded it’s “not likely we will get up” in one of the most keenly watched races of the election. See the latest.

10.40PM

Independent Alex Dyson has conceded his attempt to take the seat of Wannon from senior Victorian Liberal Dan Tehan was unlikely to succeed.

Dyson stood in front of his large crowd of supporters gathered at a Warrnambool sporting club and said “it is not looking likely we will get up”.

It has been Dyson’s third attempt at the seat, which has marginalised the once blue ribbon seat and put the region’s issues on the national political map.

Regardless of the final breakdown, it appears the Liberals will go into the next term on notice, with a wafer-thin margin and with voters closely watching what they can deliver from opposition.

With 43.4 per cent of the vote counted, Tehan has 21,222 votes, while Dyson has 15,600, with a 0.33 per cent swing to Dyson from the 2022 election.

There were 88 of 93 polling places returned so far.

10PM

Independent candidate for Wannon Alex Dyson became emotional, wiping away tears, when speaking to his sea of orange supporters at his Warrnambool post vote party, referring to the difficulties of the “character attacks” in the campaign and the warmth of his supporters.

With vote counting continuing, the incumbent Liberal MP Dan Tehan looks to be on a footing to retain the seat that has been held by his party for 70 years, and by him personally for 15.

Dyson said he was “so proud of the victory” of closing the margin, adding it looked like a greater swing would be recorded against Tehan than at the previous two elections in which he also stood against him.

Dyson said the victory of the night was that the his team “have not wavered on our morals”,.

Regardless of the outcome – which his team are saying was yet too close to call – Dyson said “we need to keep having conversations”.

“We need to keep being the changes that we want to see in the world every day,” he said.

“That is how we’re going to achieve this momentous change.”

He thanked dozens of his supporters by name, noting their roles and pathways to support his campaign, including a long-time Liberal Party staffer, lifelong friends, and family members.

9.30PM

Incumbent Liberal MP Dan Tehan appears to be on track to retain Wannon, in the face of a massive Climate 200-backed campaign by independent candidate Alex Dyson.

The latest vote count has Dyson with 32 per cent of the primary votes, a positive swing of 11 per cent.

The vote for Tehan is tracking at 43 per cent or a 1.11 per cent swing against him.

The Labor vote has dropped, down 7.78 per cent with 9 per cent of the total primary votes that have been counted so far.

The Greens vote has also fallen, by 3 per cent, with just 3.3 per cent of the first preferences.

The Legalise Cannabis vote is almost as high as the Green vote in the seat, at 3.12 per cent so far. And Pauline Hanson’s One Nation was up 1 per cent, with 4.5 per cent of first preferences.

8.15PM

Incumbent Liberal MP Dan Tehan says he is “nervous” about his seat and “taking it half-hour by half-hour”.

However, via phone, driving back to Hamilton, Mr Tehan told The Weekly Times that he believed there was a “slight swing towards me” recorded in the votes so far.

“But only 10 per cent of the votes have been counted,” he said.

“I am just grateful for the 1700 members and supporters that have helped in a long, tough and challenging campaign.”

Mr Tehan said he believed it would be “at least 9.30pm” before a result was known for his seat, and nationally.

“Obviously the postal and pre-polls; we (coalition) do a bit better in, but we have got to wait and see, it is only 8pm,” he said.

Back in the Dyson camp, spirits are high, with a cheer going up when the ABC reported that Opposition leader Peter Dutton’s seat was looking very close.

A crowd of more than 200 have gathered at Warrnambool with people coming from a wide variety of backgrounds, but all sharing a sense of the ability to create change for their seat.

One supporter, who said she worked in agriculture, said the seat’s disadvantage on measures such as health and wellbeing was one reason why she was motivated to support Dyson.

Other supporters noted the lack of access to tertiary education in the region as why an independent may draw more attention to Wannon.

7.44PM:

Incumbent Liberal MP Dan Tehan’s team say the early numbers are “looking promising, although it is early”, as the vote counts trickle in from the vast electorate’s outer reaches.

Tehan leads Dyson on first preference votes at the moment, 7382 to 5209, with 50 of 93 polling places returned.

Member of the independent candidate Alex Dyson’s team, volunteer Kyran Nicolson, a former ABC producer, said it appeared that voters in these rural areas were “getting smarter” about how to cast their votes; selecting Alex Dyson instead of giving their primary vote to a Labor, Green, or other parties.

“There is a lot of orange (on the tally board) now, but we are very, very tempered about what that means at this stage, people are excited, but it is extremely early in the night,” Mr Nicolson said.

A Dyson staffer Ben Bowring said the postal votes – around 19,415 were issued – and the pre-poll results, would likely have a big bearing on the result.

There were about 53,000 pre-poll votes cast in Wannon, Mr Bowring said, of 121,868 registered voters.

Mr Dyson has just arrived at the Warrnambool South Football Club to a rousing reception where about 200 people have gathered, including kids in orange PJs.

The Liberal team said they expected the postal vote portion could favour Mr Tehan, who is expected to return to his Hamilton home base within the next hour.

Voice for Wannon volunteer David McIntyre

7PM:

Volunteers for independent Alex Dyson are pouring into the Warrnambool South Football Club, Friendly Societies Park where the challenger is shortly expected to arrive.

Early counts from smaller booths outside Warrnambool show Labor voters are flocking to Dyson.

Labor’s vote is down by more than 5 per cent, with just 273 votes, while Dyson sits on 1405 votes and incumbent Liberal Dan Tehan has 2250.

One of the founders of the Voices for Wannon, David McIntyre from Warrnambool, says the group got started after Dan Andrew’s Labor state government “continued to push the area backwards”.

Mr McIntyre said the Voices group wanted to make the seat of Wannon marginal, and they thought, in the last election, with a widespread backlash against Scott Morrison, that an independent candidate could have a good chance.

This time, they think their chances are even better.

He nominated issues such as housing, tax reform and education as areas the group wanted more action on.

Volunteers came from all walks of life he said, but added many were frustrated Labor voters “who know Labor will never get up in this seat so they have put their support behind Dyson”.

Meanwhile, the supporters of Liberal incumbent Dan Tehan are expected to gather at his electoral office in Hamilton this evening.

EARLIER:

Seven decades as a blue blood Liberal seat could come to an end this evening, as voters in the south western Victorian seat of Wannon decide whether to stick with blue or switch to orange – Climate 200’s backed independent Alex Dyson.

The former Triple J presenter closed the margin between he and Liberal incumbent Dan Tehan. Last election, in his second run at the seat, Dyson took the margin to just 3.8 per cent.

And with $1.1 million of disclosed donated funds at his disposal, Dyson has given it a good crack. The electorate is dominated by primary industries, but boundary changes have introduced more urban folk from southern coastal areas, and with that, an increasing impatience with the coalition.

Yet, a stronghold of Liberal supporters remain, with the bulk of the farming community still in this camp.

Originally published as Wannon electorate 2025: Dan Tehan, Alex Dyson