Victoria drought: Farmers battle big dry

FARMER Doug Curnow’s 40 dams are all bone dry. The central Victorian knows that if the rains don’t fall soon — very soon — it’ll be another year of hard yakka.

Doug Curno, 46 on his farm at Laanecoorie, near Bendigo. Picture: Jason Edwards

• Victorian farmers battle one of the worst drought in years
• Would recycled water make Melbourne drought proof?
• Even chance La Nina will break Australia’s drought this year
• The Victorian lake that disappeared in drought

IT WAS Grand Final day last year — just as reigning premier Hawthorn demolished West Coast at the MCG — that searing unseasonal heat unleashed a similar path of destruction across Victoria’s wheatbelt.

Hundreds of thousands of hectares of healthy crops were laid to waste in the spring scorcher that lasted just a few short days.

Canola flowers curled up and fell to the ground and with it any hope farmers had for the season ahead.

“It was a massive kick in the guts for us,’’ farmer Doug Curnow said.

“The plants just weren’t ready for it. It cost us $250,000.

“Bang. Just like that.’’

As the players paraded their silverware in the city, Mr Curnow was just another country mind burdened by cruel weather.

Like any blockbuster clash at that time of the year, he said the season could have gone either way. A break of rain — say 25ml across three days — could have set the industry up for the season.

“It would have been a good year,’’ he said. “Instead, we copped that early heat, it ruined us and there wasn’t a thing we could do about it.’’

Like his late father before him, the 46-year-old said he’d grown used to a little hardship.

But nothing quite like this.

It’s the kind of relentless weather that has held farmers to ransom since the new millennium — first drought, then floods, and now another big dry.

Even those of little faith pray for rain and climate sceptics can’t help but re-evaluate.

“You have to wonder,’’ Mr Curnow said. “I haven’t always had an opinion on it. But now I’d almost be ready to get on board.’’

All 40 of his dams across more than 810ha south of Bendigo are bone dry. And six long months after the 2015 crop failure, the outlook isn’t much better.

This week marked the beginning of a solid fortnight of sowing for farmers who look to the sky each morning, hopeful a big wet might finally dampen the dusty horizon.

Successful yields of wheat, oats, barley and canola will depend on it — but it’s been months since Victorian farmland has benefited from a decent drop of rain.

Without water, farmers will be forced to hand feed stock and cart water across stagnant paddocks.

“If it doesn’t rain until mid-May, the ground gets cold and everything just slows down,’’ Mr Curnow said.

“But it’s April and we have to get on with it. The main trick now is just to make sure every (drop) of rain counts.”

But Mr Curnow said the troubles he faced paled in comparison to larger operators drowned by debt and swamped by the kind of thoughts that wake them long before roosters had the chance.

Ground zero in Victoria’s latest drought crisis is about two hours north of Mr Curnow. Find Birchip on the map, and within a 100km radius you’ll find the hardest-hit regions in the state.

Donald, Wedderburn, Charlton, Horsham, Nhill, Edenhope and Ararat have now all made the dubious dry list. The Mallee is among the worst-hit regions, with rainfall at Mildura in March 99 per cent below average.

Warrnambool farmers have received just half of the monthly average in the past four weeks while Echuca and Wangaratta have not fared much better.

Not even the rain forecast to move across country regions this weekend is likely to offer any real reprieve.

The Bureau of Meteorology outlook for the three months from May to July suggests
an 80 per cent chance that almost all of Victoria will exceed average minimum temperatures.

WINTER will be warmer. The odds of above-average temperatures range from 60 per cent in a line south from Swan Hill to Nhill up to 80 per cent or greater south of a line bisecting Albury, Wangaratta, Seymour, Ballarat and Hamilton.

Long-range forecasts to June point to wetter-than-average conditions in the northwest but there it’s still a 50-50 chance of decent rain in all other parts of the state.

Climatologist Jonathan Pollock said farmers who had sowed winter crops through the dry autumn might have to wait a little longer for rain.

“For most of Victoria, the odds of a wetter or drier May are pretty neutral, and there’s only a patch in the northwest where the odds are just above 60 per cent,” he said.

“The above-average rainfall is tipped not for May but more June and July, so perhaps for part of the state is that you’ve maybe got a wetter outlook
for winter.”

A La Nina watch issued by forecasters this month might offer some hope, with the phenomenon typically increasing the chances of above average winter-spring rainfall over much of Australia.

“We’re seeing the really strong El Nino is in decay and is probably in its final throes over the next few weeks, but there are already some indications that in the later part of the year, we might be in for a La Nina,” he said.

But if the rain does fall, it needs to be consistent.

Grain Growers CEO Alicia Garden said farms urgently needed subsoil moisture to give crops a kick start.

“One day of rain is not going to translate and we don’t want it all at once,’’ she said. “We need consistent falls across a few days to really have an impact.’’

She said the dry conditions were being experienced right along the eastern seaboard.

“In recent weeks, I have travelled from Dalby in Queensland to NSW and across the cropping belt in Victoria into South Australia and the story is repeated across the entire east coast.

“Given it’s the third year in a row of restricted rainfall, most farmers were hoping recent forecasts were accurate but it hasn’t brought much
to bear.’’

But growers are slowly becoming accustomed to a shift in the traditional weather patterns.

State Agriculture Minister Jaala Pulford said while Anzac Day was a marker for many farmers, in recent years the autumn weather break had been arriving much later and farmers were now better prepared for it.

“There is no doubt that what has occurred in the last 10 years, is a significant change in the pattern of rainfall,’’ Ms Pulford said.

“Farmers are incredibly attuned to the environment in which they work. They are skilled and resilient.’’

But she said in areas such as the Wimmera, where income had been slashed to 10 per cent of profits generated two years ago, the situation had been taking a toll.

“That’s a huge hit for these communities,’’ she said.

Damon Grigg, 9, Aaron Towbridge, 15, and Hayden Trowbridge, 15, stand on a jetty at a completely dry Lake Wallace in Edenhope in Western Victoria. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

One farmer in southern Gippsland told the minister it was the worst weather conditions he had experienced since 1966. The situation has prompted a number of state and federal packages aimed at propping up farmers.

Federal funding in the past year has been aimed at growers and graziers in need of concessional loans and a range of household assistance programs with the simple aim of ensuring families can stay above the bread line.

Funds are also accessible to help in pest and weed control and, more recently, farmers can receive rebates for advice on insurance to protect their productivity and profitability.

A $27 million safety net set in place by the State Government in November is aimed at wider communities affected by the downturn.

FOR every struggling grower, there was a main street corner store, a hotel or a supplier also battling the bottom line.

“While the intensity and duration of the millennium drought was challenging for farmers, we haven’t had much time to bounce back financially or emotionally and that has taken a real toll on farming communities,’’ Ms Pulford said.

She said farmers were generally accepting of the current situation but were hopeful of building a support framework for the future.

“We have a $12 billion industry, which accounts for 40 per cent of Victoria’s exports, and we can be very proud and confident in its future,’’ Ms Pulford said.

“We have some of the best dairy farmers in the world and our grain growers have continued to attract global interest for solid yields despite the lack of rain.’’

Results like that might offer some optimism, but it’s difficult for any growers already grappling with a situation out of their hands.

Chairman of beyondblue, former premier Jeff Kennett said when the chips were down, farmers struggled more than any other business operator.

Beyondblue chairman Jeff Kennett

“The climate is beyond their control and they are subject to the whims of life in a way nobody in business could possibly understand,’’ Mr Kennett said.

“Where there has been successive seasons of flood or drought, there is the passing of unproductive harvests where costs are not reduced, farmers can no longer meet their obligations and the pressure mounts.

“For a third or fourth generation farmer — this is their life. If this season doesn’t deliver the moisture they need it will push many into a position where they will be totally unviable and that
has ramifications on their mental health.’’

Loddon Shire mayor Neil Beattie said Australian farmers might be built tough, but there was a limit to how much they could take.

“Farmers have always been able to tough it out but times have changed … there is a lot more cost pressure and everybody has run out of reserves,’’ Cr Beattie said.

Whether it was cash, or hay or grain, stock was as low as farmer confidence, he said.

“It’s hard work if you have to feed stock and harder still if you have to cart water each day,’’ he said.

“It’s soul destroying.’’

However, he said farmers were becoming far more conscious of the science behind their situation.

“All of us have come to realise that the climate is changing,’’ Cr Beattie said.

Yesterday, a vast cold front that crossed Victoria, Tasmania and NSW at least offered some respite.

“A good season is critical to our whole shire,’’ Cr Beattie said. “It is raining today. It won’t be enough.

“But it’s a start.’’

[e-mail]