Even chance a La Nina will break Australia’s drought this year

MUCH of Victoria has been in the grip of a long El Nino-induced dry spell. But is that all about to change?

Horsham local Nate Keating (5yrs) jumps in a muddy puddle after the first rain in months fell in drought affected areas in Western Victoria. CONTACT: Mother's name Sharon... 0408144758. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

THERE’S now an even chance that Australia will have a wetter-than-normal La Nina winter and spring, the Bureau of Meteorology says.

The El Nino that has kept Australia dry for most of the past year is still in play but is weakening.

Horsham’s Nate Keating, 5, jumps in a muddy puddle in January this year after the first rain in months fell in drought-affected areas of western Victoria. The Bureau of Meteorology says chances are improving for a wet winter and spring this year. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

It now says there’s a 50 per cent chance that a drought-breaking La Nina may develop.

La Nina, a cooling of waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, is often but not always associated with a wetter-than-average winter and spring in northern, central and eastern Australia.

The last La Nina, in 2010/11, delivered an increased number of cyclones in northern Australia and widespread flooding in Queensland, NSW and Victoria.

Many parts of western and northern Victoria and inland Queensland have suffered a prolonged dry spell since.

The BoM’s fortnightly El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) wrap says temperatures below the surface in key areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled to below normal levels.

Charlton was one of many Victorian communities inundated during the 2010/11 La Nina. Picture: Supplied

Higher-than-average sea surface temperatures are a key sign an El Nino may affect Australia’s climate.

Five out of eight computer climate models monitored by the weather bureau suggests a La Nina may occur by spring, with the other three models predicting neutral conditions, the wrap said.

The BoM now says there’s a 50 per cent chance that the El Nino will swing straight into a La Nina.

But predictions at this time of year are notoriously tough, and a clearer picture will emerge in the next few months, it said.

An unusually warm Indian Ocean may also make for wetter months to come.

“Australia’s climate is also being influenced by record warm temperatures in the Indian Ocean,” the ENSO Wrap said.

“The warmth in the Indian Ocean will likely provide extra moisture for rain systems as they cross Australia during the southern autumn.”