Where the 2018 Victorian state election will be won
FAMILIES who live along Port Phillip Bay in Melbourne’s southeast will again decide who forms state government, with some seats likely to be won by a few hundred votes. Here’s an in-depth look at the electorates that will shape the election.
Victoria State Election
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FAMILIES who live along Port Phillip Bay in Melbourne’s southeast will again decide who forms state government, with some seats likely to be won by a few hundred votes.
The Coalition must win back the turf it lost in the 2014 election in the bayside suburbs if it is to wrest power from Labor.
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Marginal seats Frankston, Carrum, and Mordialloc all changed hands in 2014 and ushered in a new wave of young Labor MPs.
The Andrews Government has spent up big in the sandbelt since, particularly to avoid controversial skyrail as part of its signature level crossing removals.
Political expert Nick Economou said it was “symbolic” of how keen the government was to stop the tide from turning.
Both sides of politics have flooded the bayside suburbs with pre-election promises designed to woo voters worried about the cost of living and transport.
The median household income in Frankston is $1108, well below the state average of $1419, while there is a high proportion of single-parent families.
“Presumably both major parties, with their commitments, are responding to what they think people in marginal seats want,” Dr Economou said.
Premier Daniel Andrews currently holds power with 45 of 88 lower house seats, while the Coalition — at 37 — needs eight more to form government.
As it battles the Liberals in the southeast, Labor is fighting another front in the inner city where the Greens want to snatch seats and ultimately the balance of power.
Dr Economou said it was “inconceivable” that a first-term government would hold all its seats, and Brunswick and Richmond were among the most likely to fall.
Even if the Greens shave Labor’s lead, it is in the outer suburban seats where the Liberals will win or lose the November poll.
They will heavily target Cranbourne and Bentleigh in the southeast and Eltham and Ivanhoe in the northeast.
Regional seats around Ballarat and Geelong, although less likely to determine who wins government, could also throw up surprises.
In Geelong, independent Darryn Lyons is likely to lob political grenades after he was sacked as mayor by the Andrews Government.
Suzanna Sheed, the only independent MP voted in at the last election, will look to hold Shepparton.
A Melbourne Cup field of candidates will fight for Morwell, which Russell Northe won as a Nationals MP in 2014 but later quit the party and is undecided on whether to recontest.
Monbulk is another seat to watch, with Deputy Premier James Merlino likely to trump a volunteer firefighter dumped from the CFA board at the height of the fire services crisis in 2016.
Further afield, Labor has targeted marginal Coalition-held seats including Bass in the southeast and Ripon, north of Ballarat, in an effort to offset the potential loss of Brunswick.
The Liberals, if they are to form government, would likely need to win back Prahran from the Greens, after losing in 2014 despite claiming 44.81 per cent of first preference votes.
THE HOT SEATS
FRANKSTON
Current MP: Paul Edbrooke, ALP
Margin: 0.5%
Candidates: Paul Edbrooke (ALP), Michael Lamb (Lib), Colin Lane (Greens), Michael Long (DLP)
Suburbs: Frankston, Frankston North, Frankston South
Issues: Cost of living, crime, jobs, transport, health
Points of Interest: Major station redevelopment, Port Phillip Bay, Baxter rail connection, Frankston Hospital
PRAHRAN
Current MP: Sam Hibbins (Greens)
Margin: 0.37%).
Candidates: Sam Hibbins (Greens) Katie Allen (Liberal), Neil Pharaoh (ALP)
Suburbs: Prahran, South Yarra, Windsor, parts of Melbourne, St Kilda and Toorak.
Issues: Congestion, crime, environment, equality, planning.
Points of Interest: Chapel St retail district, Prahran market, Royal Botanic Gardens, Sandringham, Frankston, Cranbourne, Pakenham train lines.
CRANBOURNE
Current MP: Jude Perera, ALP
Margin: 2.3%
Candidates: Pauline Richards (ALP), Ann-Marie Hermans (Lib)
Suburbs: Cranbourne, Cranbourne East, Cranbourne North, Cranbourne West. Parts of Clyde, Clyde North, Cranbourne South, DevonMeadows, Lynbrook and Lyndhurst
Issues: Crime, transport, population growth, cost of living, jobs
Points of Interest: Major roads such as Thompsons Rd, South Gippsland
GEELONG
Current MP: Christine Couzens, ALP
Margin: 6.0%
Candidates: Christine Couzens (ALP), Freya Fridge (Lib), Darryn Lyons (Ind), Shane Elevato (Greens), Jaqueline Jacka (AJP), Sarah Hathway (Soc)
Suburbs: Geelong, Belmont, Breakwater, Herne Hill, Manifold Heights, Newcomb, Newtown, St Albans Park, Thomson and Whittington. Part of Fyansford.
Issues: Fast rail to Melbourne, regional city growth, cost of living, employment
Points of Interest: Geelong foreshore, Kardinia Park, closure of Ford factory and Alcoa smelter
MONBULK
Current MP: James Merlino, ALP
Margin: 5.0%
Candidates: James Merlino (ALP), John Schurink (Lib), Liz Hicks (Greens), Jordan Crook (Ind)
Suburbs: Belgrave, Kallista, Mount Dandenong, Narre Warren East, Upper Ferntree Gully, Upwey and Wandin East.
Issues: CFA, public transport
Points of Interest: Dandenong Ranges, Olinda State Forest, Puffing Billy, 1000 Steps
ELTHAM
Current MP: Vicki Ward, ALP
Margin: 2.7%
Candidates: Vicki Ward (ALP), Nick McGowan (Lib), Matthew Goodman (Greens)
Suburbs: Briar Hill, Eltham, Eltham North, Lower Plenty, Montmorency, Research and St Helena. Parts of Diamond Creek, Greensboroughand Kangaroo Ground.
Issues: Roads, environment, CFA, public transport
Points of Interest: Yarra River, Metropolitan Ring Road, Montsalvat
CARRUM
Current MP: Sonya Kilkenny, ALP
Margin: 0.7%
Candidates: Sonya Kilkenny (ALP), Donna Bauer (Lib), Jenny Bowden (DLP)
Suburbs: Bonbeach, Carrum, Carrum Downs, Patterson Lakes, Sandhurst and Skye, plus parts of Dandenong South, Lyndhurst and Seaford
Issues: Transport, cost of living, jobs, law and order
Points of Interest: The removal of level crossings along the Frankston line (including some business acquisitions), Port Phillip Bay, Patterson River and wetlands
RIPON
Current MP: Louise Staley, Lib
Margin: 0.8%
Candidates: Louise Staley (Lib), Sarah DeSantis (ALP), Serge Simic (Greens), Anna Hills (AJP), Peter Mulcahy (DLP)
Suburbs: Ararat, Beaufort, Charlton, Donald, Dunolly, Elmhurst, Glenorchy, Great Western, Maryborough, Miners Rest, St Arnaud, Stawell and Wedderburn.
Issues: Public transport, housing, employment
Points of Interest: Hopkins and Langi Kal Kal prisons, Stawell Gold Mine, Stawell Gift, Grampians wine region
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