Victorian state election 2018: Political expert Malcolm Mackerras predicts poll
MALCOLM Mackerras is no stranger to political prophesying. The ACU Honorary Fellow predicts how next month’s poll will play out.
Opinion
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HAVING had articles on Australian elections published over the past 60 years, I have developed a sense of what readers want.
They expect predictions, so that’s what I’ll provide. If I am wrong, too bad.
Anyway, there are 88 members of Victoria’s Legislative Assembly and I predict there will still be an Andrews Labor government after polling day.
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However, it will rely on the Greens who will hold the balance of power in the Lower House.
My predicted numbers are 42 for Labor and five Greens (a total of 47), six more than the combined conservative forces of 41 members (32 Liberals, eight Nationals and Suzanna Sheed, the independent sitting member for Shepparton).
Before I explain my reasoning, it is best I set out the result of the last election on November 29, 2014. This is done in the accompanying pendulum, about which some explanation is needed.
The first point to note is that the pendulum is based entirely on a scale of Labor/Greens (52 per cent in aggregate) versus Liberal/National (48 per cent in aggregate) of the two-party preferred vote.
By way of example of its two-party nature, the pendulum creates the impression that Northcote is ultra-safe for the Greens. However, the swing figure shown is that needed by the Liberal candidate to take the seat from then Labor member, the late Fiona Richardson.
PDF: TAKE A LOOK AT THE PENDULUM HERE
Likewise, the pendulum suggests Shepparton is pretty safe for independent Suzanna Sheed. However, the swing figure shown is that needed by the Labor candidate to take the seat notionally held by the most recent Nationals candidate, Greg Barr. The actual vote was 21,247 for Sheed and 19,123 for Barr.
Consequent upon the above, I must point out that the seats of Brunswick, Melbourne, Northcote and Richmond were contests between Labor and the Greens at the most recent election while Shepparton and Mildura were between an independent and the Nationals.
The eight seats I predict for the Nationals are simply those shown on the pendulum as won by them in 2014.
The five seats I predict for the Greens are Northcote, Melbourne and Prahran, retained, and Brunswick and Richmond, gained from Labor.
The Liberals gain Bentleigh and Carrum from Labor. I do not intend to make a prediction for the Upper House.
Malcolm Mackerras is Honorary Fellow of Australian Catholic University.
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