Matthew Johnston: Crucial week will shape Victoria’s future

Many commentators believe Labor is set for victory, but don’t write off the Coalition just yet — the next six days will play a big role for the two major parties, writes Matt Johnston.

Premier Daniel Andrews in Geelong on Saturday. Picture: Sarah Matray

This time next week, we should wake to our next state government.

The next six days will play a big role in whether Victorians back the Daniel Andrews-led Labor team, or favour Matthew Guy’s Liberal/Nationals Coalition.

There’s also a growing chance voters won’t entirely split the two, leaving a hung parliament.

At this stage of the campaign, as the Premier tries to stake a claim for a stable majority, the last thing he wants to be talking about is crime and bail.

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Matthew Guy pays a visit to Olinda CFA. Picture: Yuri Kouzmin

But that’s what Mr Andrews had to do again yesterday, more than a week after the latest terror attack rocked Melbourne — and it’s unlikely to be the last time, either.

Health Minister Jill Hennessy shifted the narrative, extolling her leader’s resolve in a crisis and his “positive policies” on other matters.

She said Victorians had a choice between a negative and positive view of the state.

Right on cue, Mr Guy took to the microphone to savage the government’s law and order record, thundering that “bail is broken under Daniel Andrews” and promising to toughen breach laws.

Expect more of that this week.

The government believes it has done enough to woo voters in key seats because of its job-creating infrastructure and investments in education and health.

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But the Coalition is telling supporters it is coming with a rush, and things are shifting towards it in Melbourne’s southeast, largely off the back of concerns about crime and family budgets.

Both parties can’t be right.

Many commentators believe Labor is set for victory, but don’t write off the Coalition just yet.

Seats to watch include the Labor-held territory of Mordialloc, Carrum, Frankston and Cranbourne in the southeast.

If those start turning, look out.

The other one is Melbourne’s inner city, where the Greens think they can pinch more of Labor’s former heartland, increasing the chances of a hung parliament.

In that case, both major parties would be on the hunt for kingmaker independents, rather than the Greens, to get over the line.