See how Victoria could decide the 2019 federal election

For the first time in decades, Victoria is shaping as the major battleground for the upcoming federal election with the Coalition and Labor both admitting that government could be won or lost in this state alone.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Labor leader Bill Shorten are expected to ­officially begin campaigning in Sydney’s west on Friday, starting a 37-day race to the polls on May 18.

For the first time in decades, Victoria is shaping as the major battleground: both sides admit that government could be won or lost in this state alone.

Mr Morrison will on Friday seize on new ­figures which put Labor’s tax bill for Australians at $387 billion over the next decade.

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He will sharpen his ­attacks on the Opposition’s big-taxing plans, citing new costings from the ­Department of Treasury to outline a “clear choice” for voters.

Prime Minister Scott Morrison in Sydney’s western suburbs on the first day of the election campaign. Picture: Adam Taylor

Highlighting the Coalition’s economic record and $158 billion in promised personal income tax cuts, the PM warned voters that every time Mr Shorten “opens his wallet, you need to check yours”.

Mr Morrison said: “Whatever Labor promises is funded on the back of $387 billion of new taxes on your income, your house, your savings, and your super. Australia cannot afford Labor. It’s taken the Coalition years of responsible economic management to fix Labor’s budget mess. Now is not the time to return to Labor.”

The government had previously called Labor’s economic ­reforms — including an overhaul of negative gearing and capital gains tax — a $200 billion hit.

The new figure, to be released on Friday, includes Mr Shorten’s Budget reply pledge to block the government’s personal income tax cuts, including major overhauls that would result in 94 per cent of workers paying no more than 30 cents in the dollar.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten with Mitcham family Richard and Jacqui Davis and sons Tom and Peter. Picture: Getty Images

The personal income tax cuts under threat are estimated by Treasury at $230 billion over a decade, while scrapping of share tax refunds is estimated to recoup $57 billion over the same period.

“Bill Shorten’s taxes not only stifle aspiration, but they will also hurt the economy, costing jobs and putting at risk the essential services Australians rely on,” the PM said.

Mr Shorten on Thursday signalled how far into enemy territory he is prepared to strike, visiting a home in Melbourne’s eastern suburb of Mitcham, in the seat of Deakin, held by the Liberals by 6.5 per cent.

Buoyed by the success of the Andrews Government at last November’s state election, Labor is understood to be eyeing off up to seven seats.

Mr Shorten chatted to the homeowners and their two young sons, and patted Fonzie the family dog.

Opposition Leader Bill Shorten leaves the Davis family home in Mitcham. Picture: Getty Images

“My feet are firmly planted in the back yard of a Mitcham house because I understand that politics should be about the people,” Mr Shorten said.

“It’s about cost of living, education, health, good jobs and renewable energy.”

He was unapologetic about Labor’s high-taxing agenda, saying it was raising the necessary funds to raise wages, boost school funding, and invest in renewable energy and tackle climate change by closing loopholes in negative gearing, capital gains tax, and dividend imputation.

“This election is very straightforward. It is about being stuck in the past, or a bright future and a positive view of what Australians can do together,” Mr Shorten said. He talked up Labor’s $2.3 billion plan to upgrade hospital emergency departments, help cancer patients meet treatment costs, and invest in MRI machines and scans.

Mark Knight’s perspective.

His Treasury spokesman, Chris Bowen, said last night Mr Morrison was “never happier than when he’s defending the top end of town”.

He did not dispute the Treasury modelling, instead explaining where Labor would direct the extra revenue.

“Labor has a plan to reverse the Liberals’ cuts to schools and hospitals and deliver the biggest cancer care package in Australian history. We’re paying for it by making multinationals pay their fair share and closing tax loopholes for the top end of town,” he said.

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