Death risk maps: The suburbs where you’re more likely to die early

Where you live can determine your chances of dying early from cancer, car crashes or heart attack. Check your suburb’s risk rating.

Miles Proust

2 min read

October 25, 2021 - 11:13AM

Victoria

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Are you more likely to die from a car crash or cancer?

Depending on where you live you may be at higher risk of one but not the other.

A national atlas has been published that reveals Victoria’s “hot spots of deaths” along with “cold zones” showing the risk of premature death due to a range of causes from suburb to suburb.

The breakdown is specific enough that a woman living in Pascoe Vale would be comforted to know she is in a cold zone for premature death from breast cancer but wary it’s a hot area for fatal car crashes.

In the west, a man living in Footscray is less likely to die from bowel cancer than the average Australian but at much higher risk of death from diabetes while Malvern residents in the leafy east live in a cold zone for all premature deaths except suicide.

In the state’s west, Horsham women are less likely to die from breast cancer but are in a warm zone for lung cancer.

Across nearly all regional areas, residents are at higher risk of premature deaths highlighting the rural-city divide.

Torrens University Australia crunched the numbers on 26 cause of death indicators measured over a decade across all local government areas around the country.

The result is a national atlas, which can be filtered down to state, city and local levels, often reflecting inequality linked to socio-economic factors as well as the rural divide such as distance from health services.

Researchers from the university’s Public Health Information Development Unit considered a variety of factors in their analysis to estimate the death rates at a suburban level from 2009 to 2018.

Each area is graded from “cold” to “hot” based on the annual death rate compared to the annual Australian average.

The grading includes cold, cold-warm, warm, warm-hot and hot based on the level of risk.

Causes of premature or potentially avoidable deaths including a range of cancers, respiratory illnesses, circulatory problems, diabetes, suicide, traffic accidents and external causes.

Researchers hope the map will be used by policy makers to improve health outcomes in areas that suffer from higher than average premature deaths.

Across Greater Melbourne 184 suburbs were listed — of these 110 were cold, 19 were cold-warm, 11 were warm. 12 were warm-hot and 32 were hot.

Melbourne’s coldest zones for all premature deaths are the coastal suburbs except St Kilda and inner east and northern suburbs with Collingwood and Fitzroy an exception.

The hottest zones are the western and outer northern and eastern suburbs which are lower socio-economic areas.

EXPLORE THE INTERACTIVE ATLAS HERE

*The darker the green – a hot zone – the more premature deaths in that region. The lighter the green – a cold zone – fewer premature deaths are recorded.*