Allan government likely to suffer devastating defeat, Werribee by-election analysis shows

Victorian Labor will likely keep bleeding support and suffer a devastating defeat in the 2026 state election, shocking analysis of the Werribee by-election has revealed.

Victorian Labor faces an election wipeout that could see the state Coalition form government with a slim majority in 2026, according to a review of this month’s by-elections by a former party secretary and campaign director.

In the shocking analysis by former Labor state secretary Stephen Newnham, he says that even on “conservative” predictions, Opposition Leader Brad Battin and his team could win 45 Legislative Assembly seats giving them the total needed to form government after the November 2026 state election.

The findings are part of his Potential Implications of the Werribee By-election Review, in which Mr Newnham found significant similarities between the current Allan government and the Labor government in 2010 led by John Brumby, which was defeated by Ted Baillieu’s Coalition.

Comparing the Altona by-election results in 2010 with the recent Werribee and Prahran by-election results, Mr Newnham predicted the Allan government would likely continue to “bleed” support in the lead-up to 2026 and suffer a devastating defeat.

If the Liberals preferenced the Victorian Greens ahead of Labor, the Coalition would benefit from a 16 per cent swing, giving them the 45 seats needed to take power in the 88-seat house, he predicted.

The review has found similarities between the current Labor government and the 2010 Labor government led by John Brumby. Picture: Mick Tsikas

Mr Newnham estimated seven seats for the Victorian Greens and just 36 for Labor.

“The electoral base of the Bracks/Brumby government going into 2010 and the Andrews/Allan government heading towards 2026 was remarkably similar,” the report states.

“The fact the swing against Labor went from 5.6 per cent two-party preferred against in the Mulgrave by-election at the end of 2023 to 10.4 per cent swing against at the Werribee by-election suggests that they (Labor) are likely to electorally bleed much more before the end of 2026.”

The Mulgrave by-election was triggered when former Premier Daniel Andrews retired from politics in 2023. It was won by Labor’s Eden Foster, but thousands of votes were lost to the Liberals in the traditionally safe Labor seat.

In February, in the by-election in Werribee, Labor’s John Lister narrowly won the seat held since 1979, defeating the Liberals’ Steve Murphy by just 693 votes.

The Liberals also gained an extra seat in the Prahran by-election, which Labor did not contest, taking the Coalition’s current seat count to 29.

Premier John Lister at the Werribee by-election post election party at Centrals Cricket Club. Picture: Jake Nowakowski

Based on the by-election results, Mr Newnham said his “conservative” estimate was a 15-16 per cent two-party preferred swing against the Allan government, which would deliver the Coalition enough seats for a paper thin majority.

Speaking to the Herald Sun, Mr Newnham said: “There’s now no doubt that the Coalition can win a majority in their own right. And, if anyone doesn’t think that then they’re clearly smoking something.”

When asked if this prediction would have an impact on Ms Allan’s leadership, Mr Newnham said that was still hard to determine. “The reality is we don’t know,” he said.

Current Deputy Leader Ben Carroll is one of the MPs whose seat, Niddrie, is considered under serious threat.

The latest bloodbath prediction comes after several horror state polls that have shown low-income and western suburbs voters are moving away from Labor.

Redbridge polling firm director Tony Barry said: “There is a strong mood for change sentiment in Victoria right now which is underpinned by voter assessments of entrenched pessimism. “This is a third term government with a lot of sixth term energy.”