Scientific modelling reveals Adelaide suburbs and SA towns most at risk of being inundated by flood water by 2100

New housing developments could be inundated by flood water by 2100, according to modelling of climate change data. See the side-by-side comparison.

Thousands of SA homes – including a number of new housing developments – could be inundated by flood waters in the next 80 years, according to scientific modelling of climate change data.

Based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) dire report on the state of Earth’s climate, Coastal Risk Australia has unveiled an online interactive mapping tool revealing how Earth’s melting ice sheets could inundate Australia’s coastline by 2100.

A 0.84m rise in the sea level would lead to a high-tide inundation of properties in Port Adelaide, Wingfield, Semaphore Park, Grange and New Port, including a new 502-dwelling housing development on the corner Semaphore Rd and Jenkins St.

A townhouse-and-apartment development at 103 West Lakes Boulevard would also be in the firing line, as would the West Lakes Charles St Town Centre Precinct.

Rising sea levels would also likely affect some homes proposed under Salisbury Council’s new City Plan 2035 report.

Other metro areas of concern include Rosewater, Ottoway and Wingfield, Semaphore Park, and Grange.

In the regions, coastal locations such as Hindmarsh Island, Goolwa and Kingston would be hardest hit.

The Coastal Risk Australia website was developed in partnership between NGIS Australia, a sustainability-driven geospatial consultancy, and FrontierSI, a not-for-profit organisation focusing on geospatial innovation.

FrontierSI chief executive Graeme Kernich said the interactive tool placed scientific modelling into the hands of the people to see for themselves how the areas they live in could be impacted in the future by climate change.

“As sea levels rise, you will see (flooding) more frequently and certainly the area around the Port Adelaide River will be threatened,” he said.

“So what we are talking about are high-tide scenarios and the areas that will be more vulnerable and as such will be getting more inundation (of flood water).

“That said, if you’re looking at the 2100 scenario and you’re in an area where that occurs, it’s likely that it will be wet all the time by 2150.”

Mr Kernich said a key consequence of flooding would be rising insurance costs.

“I think what you’re going to see … is similar scenarios as we had with North Queensland where cyclones over the past 10 to 15 years have really factored into insurance prices,” he said.

“So that’s something we’re certainly going to see that occur in the southeastern states as well, with rising sea levels becoming a factor in pricing and insurance – there’s no doubt.”

Potential flooding sites were also flagged by major Australian company the IAG Group, which owns the NRMA Insurance and CGU brands.

The company last year compiled flood data by local government area with key SA locations including Gawler, Murray Bridge and West Torrens.

Real Estate Institute of SA CEO Barry Money said natural disasters such as flooding could have detrimental impacts on the market.

He said agents had a responsibility to disclose whether a home was located within an identified flood zone but he also urged buyers to do their own research.

“They do have an impact on the market … and it is on the purchaser to do their own due diligence,” he said.

“But certainly, any type of trauma will have an effect on the market.

“This may logically be a negative effect but at the same time, it may open up opportunities for other sorts of buyers.”

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Originally published as Scientific modelling reveals Adelaide suburbs and SA towns most at risk of being inundated by flood water by 2100