Cyclone Alfred: Landfall expected Friday with destructive winds, flooding
Millions have been warned they are facing “an extended and more prolonged period” of extreme conditions after a major overnight change, as Cyclone Alfred’s expected direct hit on Brisbane slows.
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Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s path has slowed significantly overnight, pushing back its expected landfall time, with experts saying the slowdown is “most likely bad news”, as billions of dollars worth of damage is expected.
Premier David Crisafulli this morning warned residents Alfred remained on a collision course with the southeast and that while it had slowed, the severe weather system “packs a punch”.
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Meteorologists warn the slower speed of Alfred’s advance means east coast communities are in for “extended and more prolonged period of significant and major wave heights and heavy rain”.
Meanwhile, Brisbane Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has confirmed the delay in Alfred’s arrival means Brisbane’s sandbagging stations have been able to reopen, after they were closed at 8pm on Wednesday.
The seven temporary “fill-your-own” sites – Acacia Ridge, Toowong, Camp Hill, Boondall, West End, Darra, Murarrie (scroll down for full address details) – will be reopened from 10.30am and will remain open until further notice.
It comes as authorities warn millions across South East Queensland to bunker down at home, and those with no other option to head to evacuation centres, as an increasingly unpredictable Alfred brings destructive winds and flooding.
The first cyclone to hit the region in 50 years could yet strengthen into a category 3 system – although that possibility is decreasing – before it makes landfall, which on Thursday morning was predicted to be late Friday, or Saturday morning.
Cyclone Alfred was about 285km east of Brisbane at 7.46am Thursday, slowing to 7km/h, with the expected path of its centre narrowing to somewhere between Maroochydore and Coolangatta.
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Helen Reid said Tropical Cyclone Alfred’s run to the Queensland coast was slowed overnight due to a lack of influence from a separate weather system.
“There was a little bit of meandering and not distinct movement in any direction over the night and that was because of not having any steering in the upper atmosphere or elsewhere to help it move,” she said.
“Tropical cyclones are their own little system, they need to be moved along by something else.
“So that period overnight, we saw it just hovering in the same place for that period..”
Ms Reid added that the lack of movement overnight will mean another day of exposure to strong winds for coastal areas.
“The impact will be most felt by the coastline, those waves have been able to crash in for an extra day meaning coastal damage and erosion there,” she said.
“It’s also another day of those storm force winds out of the waters as well, so all those offshore impacts have just been continued for a day.”
Mr Crisafulli said a 12.3m wave had been recorded off Main Beach on the Gold Coast overnight.
“The potential for waves and wind, rainfall and then eventually flooding remains real,” Mr Crisafulli said.
“It is a strong system, and that delayed run into the coast does give people who may not have finished their preparations that little bit more of a window.
“That prospect of a crossing late into Thursday, into Friday, well, that window has been pushed further into Friday, so that gives a little bit more time for those who may need a bit more time to get ready.”
Category 3 chances reduce, but still a chance
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Sarah Scully said there was a 5 per cent chance Alfred could intensify to a category 3 system.
“The cyclone has been steered by a high-pressure system … the steering winds did just drop off overnight and it has stalled,” Ms Scully said.
“It has resumed and is moving with a trajectory towards the South East Queensland coast.”
Parts of northern NSW have already been impacted by heavy rain, with 200mm recorded at Dorigo and 170mm at Mullumbimby.
Ms Scully said gale force winds were expected to increase today and tomorrow as the system gets closer to the coast.
She said the cyclone had a low chance of intensifying.
“There’s a 5 per cent chance it may increase to a category 3.
“It will most likely cross as a category 2 and the path is still expected most likely between Brisbane and the Sunshine Coast.”
Slowdown ‘most likely bad news’
Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Dean Narramore said heavy rain and massive surf would lash the coastline for longer as Tropical Cyclone Alfred stalls off the coast.
“We’re going to have an extended and more prolonged period of significant and major wave heights, leading to significant coastal erosion in north east New South Wales and south east Queensland,” Mr Narramore said.
“The other impact means we are going to have a longer and more prolonged period of heavy rain.
“That’s going to continue right through Thursday, Friday and Saturday, and this means major flooding in many rivers in northeast New South Wales, and moderate to major flooding in parts of south east Queensland as well.”
Since 9am Wednesday, 110mm of rain fell in Springbrook and 179mm fell on the upper regions of the Logan and Albert Rivers.
Meteorologist Tony Auden said recent changes to Alfred’s path and speed were “a reminder of how erratic tropical cyclone movement can be,” adding that he expected it to cross the coast on Saturday after a major stall.
“Looking ahead, almost all model guidance has made a significant change to the forecast track,” he said.
“It looks like Alfred will stall off the coast on Friday, rather than crossing, then likely move over land on Saturday. It’s all due to the next upper trough approaching from the west.
“Things are becoming a lot less certain in the forecast track, so expect more changes, [but] it’s most likely bad news, as Alfred will hang around for longer.”
Mr Auden said strong winds and large waves would likely hang around on the coast for longer, possibly for most of the weekend, with heavy rain expected closer to Saturday.
“We could get a sideswipe with heavy rain late tomorrow and Friday, but the heaviest falls, and peak of the flooding are likely around a landfall,” he said.
“At this stage that looks more likely into Saturday. Latest guidance brings the low a bit further north, so all catchments in South East Queensland (and still for northern NSW) could be in the firing line.”
31,000 sandbags delivered to Brisbane: PM
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said 310,000 sandbags had already been delivered to Brisbane, with more on the way.
“60 ADF personnel and 30 high clearance vehicles are being pre-positioned … to support police and SES volunteers as we move to the recovery phase,” he said.
“We have activated the Australian Government Disaster Response Plan and crisis co-ordination team, which will operate out of here. I intend to operate out of here for the coming days it is probably the best place I can be to make sure that there is seamless activity between New South Wales and Queensland.”
Moreton Bay Mayor Peter Flannery told ABC Radio the council was not considering reopening sandbag stations.
“There’s a huge shortage of sand. We’ve gone through 3,000 tons of sand and 300,000 sandbags,” he said.
Mr Schrinner said an additional 1000 homes would be impacted by flooding according to another round of modelling.
“That’s obviously based on the latest impact, so it’s a slightly higher impact than our first round of modelling,” he said.
He said the latest model would be published in the next couple of hours.
The Bureau of Meteorology expects Tropical Cyclone Alfred to stall off the coast, but remain a category 2.
“The current forecast has the system intensifying to a high-end category 2 system prior to landfall,” the Bureau’s technical bulletin said on Thursday morning.
“The possibility of Alfred reaching low-end category 3 strength before making landfall is decreasing.
“Model guidance is extremely consistent in the intensity of Alfred plateauing after Thursday, even if it remains over water during Friday.”
Alfred to cause damage costing ‘billions of billions’
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the expected the damage bill from cyclone Alfred to be in the “billions and billions of dollars”.
“This is going to be a very serious weather event,” Mr Chalmers said.
“Don’t be complacent, people cannot be complacent. Do what you need to prepare.”
Mr Chalmers said he had spoken to the CEOs of multiple major insurance bodies overnight.
“They are putting in place the preparations they need to process claims,” he said.
“We need to be kind to each other, look out for each other, it’s going to be a really difficult couple of days but the weeks and months that follow will be hard as well.”
Mr Albanese said he will provide additional funding for both Queensland and New South Wales to aid with recovery from Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
“I’ll sign off on those in Parliament House immediately when this finishes, and that money will be on its way,” he said.
“That’s important, so that immediately there’s not a process of, there’s a road issued that’s been damaged by waters, and then we have a process of the bureaucracy dealing with these things.
“The money is on its way so that the work will continue absolutely immediately.”
Residents in flood zones – including the 20,000 households in Brisbane expected to be hit with some flooding – have been asked to ride out the storm with family or friends.
Mr Crisafulli said for those outside flood zones, the safest place to bunker down was in their homes.
“If you are in a storm tide zone, or in an area where you know there is riverine flooding, you really need to consider and think about your evacuation now,” he said.
Hundreds of police recruits and council workers doorknocked residents along the coastline on Wednesday, warning them of the dangers.
South East Queenslanders with no other options have been directed to evacuation centres across council areas.
Refuge centres opened
In Brisbane the RNA Showgrounds in Bowen Hills will open from 7am on Thursday as a refuge centre, the second time it has been used in a disaster in the past 100 years.
Mr Schrinner said the centre was not the same as an evacuation centre.
“This will be available to people who have no other options – it will be a very basic facility, this isn’t a facility with beds, it isn’t a facility for the long term, it’s designed to protect people’s physical safety during the most intense part of the cyclone,” he said.
“As we move forward, we will also be opening evacuation centres.”
Mr Schrinner said the council’s flood mapping was being updated and urged residents to not drive on the roads on Thursday and Friday.
Redlands Mayor Jos Mitchell said the council would open refuge centres but not resourced evacuation centres.
Mr Crisafulli said the government was working to help homeless people find short-term accommodation.
People in aged care in low-lying areas were being evacuated, along with 68 people from South Stradbroke Island.
Despite the lack of evacuation centres in Redland, Logan has opened a 24-hour evacuation centre at Crestmead and will reopen sandbagging stations later today.
Logan Mayor Jon Raven said an evacuation centre would be open at the Logan Metro Sports Centre at 357 Browns Plains Rd.
“That’ll be open 24/7 for as long as people need it. There are beds available for those who require shelter, and everybody is welcome,” Mr Raven said.
In addition to the evacuation centre, Logan will re-open two places of refuge, providing essential services to those in need.
“They don’t have bedding, but they’re open 24/7,” he explained. “They have tea, coffee, someone to talk to, a place to charge your phone. You just can’t sleep there, that’s all.”
Rescue crews were on standby on the Gold Coast and in Brisbane, including 180 swiftwater rescue personnel, as well as helicopters with winch capability and Australian Defence Force assets.
Mr Crisafulli said the safest place for Queenslanders who were not in flood zones was inside their own home.
He encouraged Queenslanders to inspect their yards and clean up loose debris.
“We are now into the phase where it is hours, not days … but you still have time,” he said.
Mr Crisafulli said residents also needed to prepare for road closures and for bridges to close as winds hit 90km/h.
Police going door to door in high-risk areas
Acting Police Commissioner Shane Chelepy said officers were going home to home in areas exposed to storm surges to ensure residents had an evacuation plan in place.
He said he had put pre-emptive disaster declarations in place in Noosa, the Sunshine Coast, Moreton Bay, Brisbane, Redlands, Logan, Scenic Rim and the Gold Coast.
The declarations would ensure emergency services personnel had appropriate powers if they were carrying out evacuations or responding to emergency situations, Mr Chelepy said.
“We don’t go around and forcibly drag people out of their homes – that’s not what we do,” he said.
“Police will go around and at a point say to people you need to leave your home, if those people don’t leave their home we take their details, we understand that they are there and as always we prepare our resources to respond.”
Seqwater CEO Emma Thomas said they were monitoring the cyclone closely and had flood operation engineers working 24/7.
“I think many of the lessons from 2011 and 2022 have been reviewed and baked into the manuals we now use to do our flood operations,” Ms Thomas told Today.
“Those dams also have a significant area which is storage for flood purposes.
“I have flood operation engineers who are hugely experienced who are on call and actively, 24/7 monitoring very closely with the Bureau where the water will fall.”
Brisbane airport open ‘as long as airlines schedule flights’
Qantas and Jetstar flights from and to Brisbane will suspended from midday Thursday until at least Friday, while flights to and from Sunshine Coast and Harvey Bay will continue as scheduled.
On Wednesday morning a Brisbane Airport Corporation spokesman said the airport was still open and operating.
“Our intention is to operate its terminals as long as airlines schedule flights in and out, for emergency and aeromedical services, for defence operations, and while it is safe to do so,” he said.
“We encourage people to speak with their airlines before travel and check the latest updates from the airport.”
A Virgin Australia spokeswoman said the airlines will operate a limited schedule to and from Brisbane on Thursday until 4pm
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Brisbane temporary sandbagging locations open from 10.30am
Mortimer Road Park – 174 Mortimer Road, Acacia Ridge
The former Toowong Bowls Club – Cnr Gailey Road and Heroes Ave, Toowong
Whites Hill Reserve -258 Boundary Road, Camp Hill
Boondall Entertainment Centre, Car Park 2 – 1 Melaleuca Drive, Boondall
Davies Park, Montague Road, West End
Atthows Park, Monier Road, Darra
Murarrie Recreational Reserve, Wynnum Road, Murarrie
Originally published as Cyclone Alfred: Landfall expected Friday with destructive winds, flooding
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