Shannon Deery: Things getting very ugly for Matthew Guy’s opposition

Voters may want to send a message to Daniel Andrews over his handling of the pandemic, but they’re not going to turf him out for a rabble with a bitter bomb thrower in its midst.

Opposition Leader Matthew Guy and Tim Smith in happier times. Picture: AAP

Just when November’s state election began looking like a proper contest, things have become ugly for the opposition.

Very ugly.

Between the latest polling and internal bomb throwing, care of the ever-reliable Tim Smith, any headway Matthew Guy was making to bolster his party’s election chances has slowed.

Guy is now staring at a second election humiliation. And unless he can turn things around, and fast, there’s every chance 2022 could be just as bad for him as 2018.

The polls are one thing.

Labor’s primary vote has dropped only slightly since the 2018 election “Danslide”, with the party holding a two-party-preferred lead of 56 to 44 per cent.

It held a wider lead going into 2018, and its primary vote has fallen three points since November 2021.

Still, it remains equal to or higher than any time before the 2014 election.

Ongoing brand damage, lack of strategy, hopeless messaging and inability to even field candidates in every seat can explain a lot of the polls away. And if it can be explained, it can be fixed.

There’s still a sense that people are genuinely waiting to send their message to Daniel Andrews and his government. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

There is still a sense that people are genuinely waiting to send their message to the government over its handling of the pandemic.

And given that, there’s only so much weight polls can be given.

Of deeper concern to party strategists is Guy’s personal performance falling by 2 per cent over the past nine months.

And the fact that 49 per cent of people polled said they were dissatisfied with his leadership, an increase of seven points. This is much harder to fix.

Because it’s the second time round for Guy and people remain very unsure about him.

Which is why Tim Smith poses a bigger problem than any poll.

His decision to go public at the weekend with his criticism of Guy’s handling of his early retirement – care of his drink-drive car crash – has senior party officials concerned.

Smith remains deeply angered at the fact he has been pushed out of politics, his life’s work.

In the fallout of his drink-drive controversy he had hoped that close mate Guy would back him to stick around and ride the outcry.

Indeed, he claims that’s exactly what happened – that Guy encouraged him to stay in politics before effectively sacking him amid public pressure.

Polling shows Matthew Guy’s popularity has taken a hit. Picture: Andrew Henshaw

Guy held a press conference days after the incident in which he said he “made it very clear … I didn’t want him to nominate at the next election”.

Until recently, all efforts had been exhausted in persuading Smith to present a united line, at least in regards to internal party matters, for the good of the party.

There is a feeling among concerned Liberals now that those efforts have been wasted, and that he won’t rest until Guy is destroyed.

His comments at the weekend sent a very strong message to the party: the gloves are off.

His criticism of Guy is now public and, importantly, calls into question the leader’s honesty and integrity.

Smith has nothing to lose.

Guy has everything to lose.

Anything short of forcing Labor into minority government come November means he is likely to join Smith as a former MP.

Which is odd, given just two weeks ago Guy began what could be argued the strongest fortnight for the Coalition since 2014.

The announcement that he would shelve the government’s divisive Suburban Rail Loop project and redirect all available funding to fix the state’s health system was a hit.

It set the scene for an epic showdown at the election, pitting transport against health in voters’ minds.

He followed the announcement with a promise to build a new Royal Children’s Hospital in Melbourne’s west. A sure vote winner.

Hours later the Premier popped up at the RCH to make his own, much smaller, announcement.

Guy was hitting his stride in a way that, for the first time in recent memory, had the government looking ill-prepared, if not quietly panicked.

There’s still a long time to go until the polls open. But the realisation that Smith will not “go quietly” as he’s committed to do in recent weeks will have rattled Guy.

Because while oppositions don’t win elections (governments lose them), that only works when there is confidence in an opposition being ready, willing and able to govern.

As it stands right now, few could believe that. And voters won’t kick the mob out for this.