Seven sins could haunt Daniel Andrews’ re-election hopes in November

Integrity issues, cost blowouts and a world record for the longest lockdown have dogged the Premier, but will it affect his bid for re-election?

Daniel Andrews has been in power for almost eight years, with his government seeking a third term in November.

The Herald Sun’s state political team looks at the issues that have haunted the government and could shape its bid for re-election.

Sick system under siege

After years of flatlining investment and reform, hospitals in Victoria were vulnerable to stress. Then came the pandemic, when pressure on the system exploded.

As a result, hospital emergency departments are under siege, and doctors and nurses are burnt out. Ambulance services have been on Code Red multiple times already this year, leaving people stranded during emergencies.

Box Hill Hospital recently put up giant tents to triage patients due to a lack of beds available in permanent wards.

At the last state budget Andrews and his treasurer Tim Pallas poured money into the sector but many insiders say this alone won’t fix systemic problems in the short term.

Opposition Leader Matt Guy has made the health sector his primary focus in the lead-up to the election.

An 83-year-old who was forced to wait in a tent outside Box Hill Hospital.

The hotel quarantine disaster

The failure of hotel quarantine in Victoria has been blamed for Covid-19 leaking into the community in 2020, leading to more than 800 deaths.

Before mass vaccinations, Australia was trying to keep coronavirus out of the country by forcing returned travellers to isolate.

However, lax procedures in Victoria and a decision to use poorly trained security guards as primary contacts for guests resulted in people getting infected and spreading the virus through the community.

An inquiry into the disastrous scheme found there were poor health controls put in place and that hotel quarantine was often viewed as a logistics exercise rather than an infectious diseases measure.

Premier Daniel Andrews said he could not recall who made the decision to staff the program with security, but Health Minister Jenny Mikakos, Department of Premier and Cabinet secretary Chris Eccles and Department of Health secretary Kim Peake all quit following the inquiry.

Families of victims continue to demand answers.

Integrity fails

When he swept to power in 2014, Daniel Andrews promised transparency and integrity.

At that time, he was overseeing a political campaign that siphoned money from state parliamentary budgets to pay for campaign staff.

After initially denying wrongdoing, the Premier eventually apologised and Labor paid back almost $388,000 for what was dubbed the “red shirts rort” due to campaigners wearing red ALP shirts.

The issue was reignited during a recent anti-corruption commission hearing into branch stacking and Victorian Ombudsman Deborah Glass reassessed whether there was any fresh evidence to warrant a corruption probe – which she ruled there wasn’t.

Andrews has been attacked by his opponents on integrity failings, such as the red shirts affair.

Several of Andrews’ ministers quit during the probe into branch stacking, which has forced a change to state laws.

Other issues have included a parliamentary printing rort run out of an MP’s office to raise cash for Labor memberships, a minister being forced to resign for using a taxpayer-funded car to ferry his dogs across the state and the Speaker and his deputy both claiming travel allowances meant for regional MPs, despite the fact they lived in metropolitan electorates. Meanwhile, Ms Glass is investigating whether the public service has been politicised under Andrews’s leadership and stacked with “Labor mates”.

The ‘lockdown capital’

In 2021 Melbourne was known as the most locked-down city in the world. As the Andrews government pursued an aggressive Covid-zero policy prior to vaccines being widely available, the entire state was sometimes placed on heavy restrictions over a handful of coronavirus cases.

The government and health bureaucrats said the decision was made to avoid overwhelming the health system, which would have seen many more people die. Critics say the measures caused serious mental health distress and smashed the livelihoods of many Victorians.

Melbourne endured a world record long lockdown. Picture: Daniel Pockett

Many businesses collapsed, while the government dished out subsidies to some to try to keep them afloat.

Schools were shifted to remote learning, with experts saying this had a disproportionate impact on disadvantaged students.

Parents were banned from taking children to playgrounds or from travelling 5km from their homes.

The state opposition has promised there will be no lockdowns under a coalition government, while the government has been accused of delivering mixed messages about ongoing restrictions.

Building blowouts

Premier Daniel Andrews has received plaudits for his infrastructure building blitz since coming to office, but budget blowouts on key projects, such as the Metro rail tunnel and West Gate Tunnel have taken some of the shine off.

With costs going through the roof in a range of industries and inflation starting to bite, problems are piling higher.

The West Gate Tunnel is now three years late and $4.1bn over budget, while Melbourne Metro rail tunnel is running ahead of time but $2.84bn over budget.

The Suburban Rail Loop has been turned into a key election issue by the opposition.

The North East Link is expected to soar above its cost estimate of $15.8bn, while Frankston and Footscray hospitals are experiencing large overruns.

Some of the blame can be attributed to industry cost pressures, but poor scoping of mega projects early in the government’s tenure has contributed.

There are also concerns about the cost of future projects, including the new Suburban Rail Loop.

The first two stages, which will connect Cheltenham to Melbourne Airport, were costed by the Parliamentary Budget Office at $125bn.

No estimate has been given for the third stage between Melbourne Airport and Werribee.

The government says the first 26km will cost $34.5bn and that stage will open in 2035, while also disputing the PBO’s $125bn figure.

Labor’s Adem bomb

Hell hath no fury like a scorned Labor powerbroker. Adem Somyurek, who was twice appointed to Cabinet by Daniel Andrews before being accused of branch stacking and quitting, knows where bodies are buried.

As a leader of the once-influential “Moderates” faction of the ALP, he also knows how power works in the party – including how Andrews grew his factional base.

Former Labor powerbroker Adem Somyurek could pop up at any time with a new bombshell. Picture: Ian Currie

Having come under the lens of the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission, due to staff allegedly working on factional matters, Somyurek has decided to write a book to give his side of the saga.

It is likely to have a searing analysis of Andrews, who Somyurek has criticised previously and described as being like a “Mad King” of Victoria, obsessed with his image and with control.

The borrowing binge

While the pandemic has masked the source of many financial stress points, Andrews government insiders were already worried about the budget before tens of billions more dollars were borrowed last year.

Net debt in Victoria is now likely to soar to $167.5bn within four years, at the same time as interest rates are rising. This puts Victoria’s borrowing binge well above most other states, including NSW.

In the Andrews government’s first term, Treasurer Tim Pallas said that debt was “manageable” when it was heading towards 5 per cent of gross state product, which would have been $32bn this year based on those forecasts. He also campaigned hard on keeping expenditure below revenue, saying “it’s tight but we are not spending more than we earn”.

The pandemic has changed everything, and forced the government to spend big, but critics question Labor’s plan to pay down debt and return to a responsible level of spending.