Shannon Deery: How state election has become about politics of ‘saving lives’

There are three months until the state election but as the health crisis worsens and the cost of the Suburban Rail Loop grows eye-watering, the key issues are already clear.

Daniel Andrews and Matthew Guy’s election campaigns are under way. Picture: AAP

Lest there be any doubt, the Victorian state election campaign is well and truly under way.

There might still be three months until the November 26 vote (95 days to be precise, but who’s counting?). Yet Opposition Leader Matthew Guy fired the starter’s gun when he announced his biggest policy to date: scrapping the multibillion-dollar Suburban Rail Loop.

The loop – a 90km line through Melbourne’s middle ring of suburbs from Cheltenham to Werribee – is the most expensive project in Victorian history.

Just how much the project will cost is anyone’s guess.

But the Parliamentary Budget Office says it will be at least $125bn – yes, that’s billion with a “B” – or about $20,000 for every Victorian.

That’s quite a bit more than the $50bn price tag attached to the project at its 2018 launch.

Throughout his premiership, Andrews has defended his progressive social reform agenda on the idea that inaction would cost lives. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascui

The project was hailed as a major vote-winner for Daniel Andrews at that year’s election and helped Labor pick up a string of Liberal seats.

Andrews and his team have persistently relied on that fact to defend the big spend of pushing on with the new rail line.

The three stage project will see the development of a 26km tunnel between Cheltenham, in the southeast, and Box Hill, in the east.

The government wants that built by 2035 with plans eventually to extend the line to Melbourne Airport and then through to Werribee by mid-century.

For the same money, a government could fund thousands of health professionals, ambulances or mental health practitioners.

With $12bn dedicated to fixing the health crisis in this year’s budget, the government says there’s plenty of cash to fix health and build the rail loop.

The Suburban Rail Loop is the most expensive project in Victorian history. Picture: Suburban Rail Loop Authority

Guy says in light of the state’s record debt level, the project is a luxury Victoria can’t afford.

On current projections we’ll owe $167bn by 2025 – or $25,000 for every single Victorian – and more than double that of each person in NSW.

Interest payments alone are set to cost taxpayers more than $20bn over the next four years.

Guy has promised to instead divert state funds away from the project into Victoria’s broken health system. As it stands, almost 90,000 Victorians are awaiting critical surgery while ambulance callouts are routinely missing their target 15-minute time frame.

Most calls to triple-0 are still not being answered on time and ambulance ramping at hospitals remains a critical issue.

Every Victorian wants the comfort of knowing if they, their children or parents need an ambulance or a hospital bed it will be there.

Guy’s plan is a bold one, and one that has dragged the government into an early campaign.

It is also cleverly exploiting one of the government’s most used rationales for action: saving lives.

The government is working on establishing Victoria’s second safe injecting facility. It makes sense that others would follow. Picture: Mark Stewart

Throughout his premiership, Andrews has defended his progressive social reform agenda on the idea that inaction would cost lives.

He has established a benchmark of “this will save lives” to prosecute divisive policy.

And he has used it to great effect, often successfully swaying public opinion on a raft of issues.

Take drug injecting rooms.

Never a broadly popular idea, the government is working on establishing Victoria’s second facility. It makes sense that others would follow.

The existing Richmond facility has proved wildly unpopular with local residents. But announcing the second facility, planned for Melbourne’s CBD, Andrews said it was vital.

“This is very important because it will save lives, I’m convinced of that,” he said.

Saving lives underpins the government’s level crossing removal program too.

When Andrews vowed to retain the controversial “Safe Schools” program during the 2018 election campaign it was also because it “saves lives.”

Matthew Guy has promised to divert state funds away from the Suburban Rail Loop into Victoria’s broken health system. Picture: Ian Currie

It’s a sound, persuasive argument. Which is why it could come back to haunt Andrews come November. Because in committing to shelve the rail loop, Guy is also promising to save lives.

“This November, Victorians face a clear choice,” he said announcing the move.

“A choice between immediately rebuilding Victoria’s broken health system, or a train line in 13 years’ time.

“As Premier, my first priority will be to fix the health crisis.

“Our plan is about returning confidence for Victorians. Confidence that an ambulance
will arrive, an emergency call will be answered and critical healthcare will be available when needed.”

For many, the decision will be a no-brainer. Which is why health has been cemented as the key issue for the upcoming election.

Both Guy and Andrews will have to persuade Victorians their plan for fixing the health crisis will save lives.

Shannon Deery is Herald Sun state politics editor