Labor faces historic routs in upcoming Super Saturday by-elections

WITH a week to go until the Super Saturday by-elections, Labor will lose the Queensland seat of Longman, polling shows, while Braddon in Tasmania is too close to call.

WITH a week to go until the Super Saturday by-elections, Labor will lose the Queensland seat of Longman, polling shows, while Braddon in Tasmania is too close to call.

Exclusive YouGov Galaxy polls taken in four of the five seats up for grabs next weekend show Malcolm Turnbull is a good chance to become the first PM to win a by-election since Billy Hughes in 1920.

And worryingly for Bill Shorten, the polls show Labor would hold Longman and Braddon comfortably if Anthony Albanese were leader, and increase its vote in Fremantle in Western Australia.

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In Longman, the vote for Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has almost doubled since the last election and now stands at a whopping 18 per cent.

If this vote is replicated on Saturday, the LNP’s Trevor Ruthenberg will beat Labor’s Susan Lamb 51 per cent to 49 per cent after preferences.

The polls are worrying for Opposition Leader Bill Shorten. Picture: AAP Image/Grant Wells

Ominously for Ms Lamb, while her primary vote has improved from 35.4 per cent to 37 per cent, the poll also shows 45 per cent of voters were dissatisfied with the way she was doing her job and only 37 per cent were satisfied.

In contrast, the polls showed 49 per cent of voters in Braddon approved of the way Labor’s Justine Keay was doing her job. Her primary vote of 40 per cent is unchanged from the last election, while the Liberals’ vote is up 2.5 per cent.

Ms Keay’s chances of re-election may hinge on preferences from the Greens and Left-leaning independent Craig Garland, who has 7 per cent of the primary vote, ­according to the poll.

In Fremantle, the poll has Labor’s John Wilson increasing his vote from 57.5 per cent to 66 per cent.

A similar story is expected in Mayo, where the polling shows the Liberals’ star candidate, Georgina Downer, has flopped and Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team/Centre Alliance will increase her majority from 55 per cent to 59 per cent.

Mr Turnbull said all indications were that Longman and Braddon would be tight races, and the odds were stacked against his candidates.

Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has tipped a tight race in the by-elections. Picture: AAP Image/Dan Himbrechts

“The by-elections on all the evidence appear to be very close but we have got to recognise that Labor should be streets ahead in these by-­elections,” he said in Townsville.

“By-elections historically always swing away from the government, particularly if it’s an Opposition seat. The last time a government won a seat in a by-election from the Opposition was about 100 years ago. There’s a reason for that.”

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Mr Shorten launched Ms Lamb’s campaign in Longman on Sunday, saying it was not a contest between the two ­leaders. “He said that the by-­election was about him versus me. And maybe in his mind, that’s what it is. Maybe that contest makes all his other problems just go away magically,” Mr Shorten said of Mr Turnbull.

“On his flying visit here yesterday, he said ‘Bill Shorten’ 11 times … but he didn’t mention the word ‘schools’ once.

“I’m different — I don’t actually think this by-election is about him or me. I say this to the voters of Longman, it’s not about Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten. It’s about you.”

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