James Campbell: Could Anthony Albanese really float the Opposition’s boat?

A POLL lifting Anthony Albanese’s potential as a rival leader of the Labor Party will give Bill Shorten a fresh headache ahead of the Super Saturday by-elections, writes James Campbell.

ANTHONY Albanese fans will seize these polls to try to claim Labor would be a shoo-in at the next election if their man and not Bill Shorten were the leader.

Certainly, this is true of Longman, where the YouGov Galaxy poll says Labor’s primary vote would be 6 per cent higher if he were at the tiller.

LABOR FACES HISTORIC ROUTS IN SUPER SATURDAY BY-ELECTIONS

BILL SHORTEN SAYS HE IS ‘NOT OFFENDED’ BY ANTHONY ALBANESE SPEECH

LABOR’S INFIGHTING OVER PRESELECTIONS THREATENS BILL SHORTEN AGAIN

But the Albo factor would also apparently improve the primary vote by 4 per cent in Braddon and 3 per cent in Fremantle and Mayo.

Case closed? Not quite. In Longman, 3 per cent of that primary vote jump would come from One Nation.

Anthony Albanese’s potential as Labor leader has been boosted by a poll. Picture: AAP

The one thing we know about One Nation voters is they’re red hot on immigration.

Would they really switch their vote to the ALP if they knew Albanese had voted against backing the Turnbull Government’s border protection policies at Labor’s national conference?

And by the time we go to the next general election, you can be absolutely sure they would know because Peter Dutton would make sure they did.

Maybe it would turn out that the voting public had such affection for Albanese they would overlook the issue. Maybe. Maybe not.

Bill Shorten in Caboolture to back Labor’s campaign for Longman. Picture: Tara Croser.

SHAUN CARNEY: IS ALBO AS LEADER REALLY LABOR’S ANSWER?

One thing is certain: the government would like nothing better than the chance to fight an election on boats, and Albanese would provide that chance.

More interestingly, while these polls show that Albanese would take votes from the Greens, he doesn’t seem to have much appeal to Liberal voters.

In Longman, the Liberals would shed 1 per cent of their primary vote to Labor under Albo, and 2 per cent in Braddon. In Mayo, the Liberals’ primary vote wouldn’t move and their two party-preferred vote would actually improve 1 per cent.

And again, this is before the government gets to work on Albanese.