Unanswered questions about Victoria’s road map out of lockdown
When will elective surgery resume? Are we suppressing or eliminating coronavirus? When will we be able to holiday? These are the questions we’re still waiting on answers for after Premier Daniel Andrews unveiled his road map out of lockdown.
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There are still several questions that remain over Victorian’s road map out of lockdown — what happens if cases start to go up after we reach a threshold? When will elective surgery return?
Here’s some questions we’re yet to receive an answers for.
ARE WE GOING FOR SUPPRESSION OR ELIMINATION?
Many of the country’s top epidemiologists have described the road map as being an elimination strategy, but Daniel Andrews has said the path out of lockdown is not about eradicating the virus completely.
Under the plan, Victoria won’t reach “COVID normal” until the state is free of the virus for 28 days.
The Premier said he is expecting future outbreaks of the virus in 2021 but does not intend to send Victoria into another lockdown after the final step of the road map is reached.
“A strategy where you’re trying to eradicate it would mean to say if you got past that 28 days [with no cases] and you had one case, you would go back into lockdown. That’s the difference,” he told 3AW on Monday.
“We will have cases in the future, in 2021. We will have outbreaks but you’ve got to give close contact tracers decent odds, it’s got to be a fair fight.
“If they’re trying to trace 100,000s of people everyday, then you just can’t do it. But if you get it down really low, you don’t have to go back into lockdown because you can track and trace them and keep a lid on things, but only off a really low base.”
WHAT HAPPENS IF WE MEET A GOAL, THEN GO BACKWARD?
Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said “it’s not necessary to say moving back”, when asked whether the government had thresholds for cases increasing rather than decreasing.
Prof Sutton “thinks” that if there are small outbreaks along the way to becoming COVID normal, then they will be dealt with on a case-by-case basis.
“If there are regional or local cases, I think we can address them on their merits. It’s not a case of applying restrictions across the board if we can manage something that’s very focal and localised. It will be addressed at the time if we get to that,” he said.
“If there’s going to be a step back, it’s going to be those outbreaks that we just need to manage on their merits, with the least disruption and most focused approach possible.”
WHAT HAPPENS IF THERE’S FEWER THAN 5 CASES, WE EASE RESTRICTIONS THE AVERAGE DAILY CASE NUMBERS INCREASE?
It is unclear what would happen if cases start to go up again after passing the five case threshold but Dan Andrews said that “common sense” may be applied if a single outbreak affects the overall two week average.
“If the 14 day average was going well and then you have one contained outbreak on the 13th day, for instance, we would always reserve the right to apply common sense to this instance,” he said.
“Similarly, once we get to that COVID normal, one case or one outbreak would not be enough for us to then reimpose rules.
WHAT YEAR LEVELS WILL RETURN TO SCHOOL AFTER PREP, YEAR ONE AND TWO AND VCE?
When asked if year’s three and ten will return to school this year, Mr Andrews said he’d “look at the data” as Victoria progresses through the road map.
“In terms of grade three to year ten, remote and flexible learning continues. Subject to the data and the number of virus cases, we aim to get kids back but it has to be done safely and in a way that doesn’t put at risk all the other goals of getting the place open by the time we get to Christmas,” he said.
“I’m not saying no, but I’m not in the position to outline the timeline and say yes right now.
“If those settings change, then as we have the whole way along, we will provide parents with as much notice as we possibly can.”
WHEN WILL WE BE ABLE TO GO ON HOLIDAY?
Prof Sutton could not give a specific point in the road map when Victorians would be able to holiday, but said it will be assessed when regional Victoria and metropolitan Melbourne have similar numbers of cases.
“The pace at which regional Victoria gets to very low case numbers will mean in all likelihood that it will be ahead of metro Melbourne but at some point, metro Melbourne catches up and we’re all on the same setting,” he said.
“If we can get to that average of five cases over a 14 day period and no cases of unknown acquisition or mystery cases, then we’ll all be on that setting and continue on through the next step and the next step too.”
“I think that’s a natural point at which there’s no risk of importing risk to regional Victoria anymore than there is from regional Victoria.”
There’s even more uncertainty around interstate travel — with Andrews saying the decision on border reopenings depended on states.
“I’d be comfortable as we deliver each of these stages, other states will look and be in no doubt that we’ve brought a sense of control to it, that we’re much lower risk than we had been and then it’s ultimately a matter for them,” he said.
WHEN IS ELECTIVE SURGERY COMING BACK?
The Premier said that the government has not yet come to an agreement on when elective surgery will be allowed.
When it does return, there is expected to be a blitz.
“Elective surgery is not something that we have finalised yet. It’s a very important question, I know there are many people out there who have had to have their surgery cancelled,” Mr Andrews said.
“Very soon, the Minister and I will outline a timetable that will be subject to advice and case numbers. It won’t just be a timetable for the resumption of surgeries that were booked and had to be cancelled, it will also be a blitz that will allow us to catch up.”
“That plan will run into 2021 but we’ll have more to say about that soon.”
DO HOUSEHOLD BUBBLES HAVE TO BE IN YOUR 5KM RADIUS?
While the guidelines for visitors to singles have been announced, Prof Sutton said he was unclear on whether the rules had been set out for household bubbles.
“I’m not sure that’s been defined at this stage but as we get through the next few weeks we’ll be able to make judgments on what levels of activity across postcodes are,” he said.
“We don’t want to inappropriately restrict people’s ability to see a significant household so I think we would look to not having that restriction in place, but we need to see the activities occurring in terms of our transmission.”
READ MORE:
WHAT’S OPEN, CLOSED IN RESTRICTIONS
WHAT ROAD MAP MEANS FOR CHILDCARE