Experts reveal if Melbourne is on track to hit targets needed to ease lockdown
Metropolitan Melbourne has dropped below an average of 50 cases a day for the first time, which is the benchmark to ease restrictions later this month. Experts say controlling outbreaks in healthcare settings is now key to staying on track.
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Melbourne has fallen below the target for further easing of restrictions for the first time.
The metropolitan 14-day case average is now 49.6 after Wednesday cases were added.
We must have an average daily case rate of between 30-50 cases to trigger an easing of restrictions from September 28.
Controlling outbreaks in healthcare settings was now the key to staying on track, experts said.
Regional Victoria will have their restrictions eased from midnight Wednesday after meeting their target of less than five average cases. They have a rolling total of 3.5.
Victoria has also reached a milestone of having less than 1000 active cases.
University of Melbourne Prof Nancy Baxter said controlling outbreaks among healthcare workers and in aged care facilities would be key to meeting the deadlines.
Ill fitting masks in healthcare settings were among factors which had the potential to lead to future outbreaks.
“I would say if things go well, this is a reasonable timeline,’’ Prof Baxter said.
“If anything, we may well be there before the (final) November 23 deadline that they’ve set, but there’s a lot of uncertainty.
“One of the key things is to get their house in order in respect to the hospital and healthcare worker transmission.
“When you have someone who is cutting stone, you make sure their mask fits so they don’t inhale the dust but they haven’t made sure the masks fit healthcare workers.”
University of South Australia Professor Adrian Esterman told the Herald Sun the state government’s timeline was “airing on the side of caution”.
But he said the state’s apparent elimination strategy was the right path to take.
“Forecasting this virus is incredibly difficult. It’s all very much dependent on whether they can get the infections in health workers and nursing homes under control,” he said.
“But at its current rate, it’s decreasing in a slow curve and we should hit those targets on those dates.
“I think these are reasonable targets and I think the approach the Victorian government is taking is sensible.
“It’s exactly what’s needed. I know it’s a huge amount of pain for people but it’s short term pain for long term gain.”
But Victoria’s road map was met with criticism by Prof Catherine Bennett, Chair of Epidemiology at Deakin University.
The academic said she was “extremely disappointed” with the plan and criticised the government for using a “generic” model rather than using more of Victoria’s data to pave the pathway out of the second wave.
She also said the government could have focused their model on milestone case numbers, rather than setting target dates for when restrictions will be lifted.
“To base these threshold decisions on a generic model is really troubling to me, I don’t know why we’re not using our own data to get much more precise about what’s going on in our community and we can safely open up.
“Maybe we could have been more precise about the restrictions we keep in place after next weekend.
“We should be giving our data to the modellers to put into their models, we should have been finessing it so it really fit our situation in Victoria so we had a much more fine brushstroke view of our future and so we can plan through that.”
*Graphics courtesy of covid19data.com.au
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