Victoria’s bid to compare the contact tracing system with other states labelled ‘too little, too late’
A team of experts from Victoria will be sent to Sydney to compare how NSW is handling contact tracing and responding to outbreaks, but Opposition leader Michael O’Brien says it’s too little, too late. It comes as regional Victoria recorded zero new virus cases in the past 24 hours as Melbourne saw a small spike in figures, with 55 new infections.
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Victoria has recorded another 55 cases of coronavirus, along with eight deaths.
Tuesday’s daily total was a small spike after 41 cases were recorded on Monday.
Nine deaths, including eight linked to aged-care outbreaks, were added to the state’s toll, taking the total to 675.
Two men in their 60s, two men in their 80s, one woman and three men in their 90s accounted for the deaths.
238 Victorians remain in hospital affected by coronavirus with 22 in intensive care and 13 on a ventilator.
There are 22 active cases in disability facilities — 12 workers, 10 residents and 863 active cases in the aged-care sector.
Mystery cases across the state have dipped by 45 and regional Victoria has recorded no new cases.
In the regions, cases have fallen to 82, with Mr Andrews saying “you are all doing an amazing job.
There were 16 cases in Geelong and one in Bendigo.
On Monday, the state recorded 8704 tests, which the Premier said is “less than we would like”.
“We will see in coming weeks and months with so little flu, so little cold symptoms, we will see less symptomatic people in the community in general,” he said.
In the coming weeks, five suburban contract tracing Response Units will be set up to swoop on outbreaks early on.
Mr Andrews said “pouncing on outbreaks” had proven as a successful strategy in the regions and said these local teams would provide “the very beat and localised response”.
“We think that will serve us very well,” he said.
When asked whether 82 active cases meant regional Victoria could be released from restrictions earlier Mr Andrews said he was not making any announcements.
“We will ease restrictions in Victoria based on the data,” Mr Andrews said.
“We are very close right now … but we have got to make sure when we do those steps safely.”
HOW LOCKDOWN RESTRICTIONS COULD END EARLY
Victoria’s Chief Health Officer has suggested lockdowns could be eased in Victoria without necessarily meeting strict guidelines for daily infections, but only if remaining cases could be traced and contained.
Speaking to Neil Mitchell on 3AW, Professor Brett Sutton said the benchmarks in the state’s road map to recovery were achievable and that the data would be considered with some flexibility.
“We always reserve the right to have a look at what those cases are,” he said.
“If it’s at 10 cases per day but eight of them are in aged care and contained, I think we can review with that in mind.
“We’ll never just pick a number and not look into where those cases are occurring.
“Obviously the modelling has generated those numbers in terms of what the risk is but when we actually look at what our cases are and where they’re occurring that will inform even more of what’s achievable.”
Prof Sutton it was likely masks would remain in use for some time and would remain mandatory until numbers were very low.
“They add a lot of benefit,” he said.
“They will have a usefulness both inside and outside where you might come into close contact with people.”
When asked about the federal government’s criticism of the state’s contact tracing system, Prof Sutton said the NSW and Victorian team looked “pretty similar” and were in regular communication with each other.
“Its pretty clear that the numbers got beyond Victoria’s capacity to deal with every case in a timely way,” he said.
“But we’re at a point now where its entirely within our grasp to get to every case, interview them within 24 hours and to get to every close contact within 24 hours.
“But we’re aiming for better than that.
“We’ve got metrics that indicate, and this is locked into our system so it’s not made up numbers, that when we get a notification we are contacting people within 24 hours.
“When they get their result and when we get notified, now that may be something to improve.”
Prof Sutton also said the decision to introduce a curfew in Melbourne was not made based on his advice.
“The curfew came in as part of the State of Disaster, for example, it wasn’t a State of Emergency requirement,” he said.
“It wasn’t something that I was against from a public health perspective.
“I was consulted on it but it was a separate decision-making pathway
Prof Sutton said he hadn’t considered whether he would have introduced the curfew himself under public health directions.
“It has been useful,” he said.
“If I put my mind to it, probably.”
Prof Sutton also dismissed suggestions that there was a rift between himself and Premier.
“I get along pretty well with all sorts hopefully across the political spectrum and across all the various personality types,” he said.
“My gig is to provide straight up robust advice.
“I’m pretty comfortable with giving it, maybe when it’s not comfortably received.
“We’ve worked very well together.”
HOW VICTORIA COULD HAVE DODGED SECOND WAVE
Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt has revealed the second coronavirus wave “could largely have been avoided” if Victoria’s contact tracing system has been better.
Mr Hunt said half a dozen outbreaks comparable to the initial hotel quarantine cluster have occurred in NSW but superior contact tracing had enable the state to stay on top of cases.
“NSW has had the equivalent of about six hotel quarantine breaches,” he said.
“Victoria and NSW … both had outbreaks. NSW was able to contain theirs.”
Mr Hunt said there had been significant improvement in the state’s systems but there was still room for improvement.
“It [the second wave] could largely have been avoided,” Mr Hunt said.
“All the best advice that we have is that if you have a highly developed contact tracing system, then you can bring us in a progressive stage way out of these curfews and lockdowns and the shattering of businesses more quickly.”
He reiterated there was standing offers of assistance to bring Victoria up to NSW’s “gold standard”.
“If more is needed, more will be provided,” Mr Hunt said.
Mr Hunt disagreed “respectfully” with the timing and thresholds outlined in the road map.
“What’s the basis for having a 14-day and 28-day zero transmission goal? That is a very tough standard. I’m not aware of where else in the world they have that,” he said.
He reiterated that a vaccine was going to be the “ultimate protection” against the virus but systems needed to be in place to allow Australia to reopen before that was available.
“The vaccines are the ultimate protection and that will give us an achievement that is so important to the future health and prosperity of Australians and their mental health,” Mr Hunt.
“And at the same time, the second defence is a strong public health and contact-tracing response and in the last thing you do, is lock people down and we think we can help Victoria achieve better results and we are offering those resources in a constructive way.”
BIZARRE REASONS VICTORIANS BROKE LOCKDOWN
A man cycling to see his “semi-intimate partner” and women with a strange excuse for breaching curfew are among the 171 people fined for lockdown breaches in the past 24 hours.
Police fined a man cycling on Dorcas St after curfew who said he was on his way to visit his “semi-intimate” partner.
Two women found walking and eating ice-cream at 2am told police they thought it was 6am but were also hit with fines.
Another woman intercepted in Greaves St in Werribee after curfew told police she had driven from Geelong to Melbourne to buy a kebab and was driving back to Werribee to visit her boyfriend.
Police detected 67 curfew breaches and 31 people not wearing a mask in the 24-hour period.
PREMIER’S ROAD MAP ‘CRAZY’, SAYS EX-MINISTER
Victoria’s road map out of coronavirus lockdowns has been dubbed “crazy” by former resources minister Matt Canavan.
It comes as the Federal Government puts pressure on the Andrews Government to publicly release the modelling and assumptions that informed the plan.
Senator Canavan told Sky News on Tuesday that Daniel Andrews needed to explain why he chose certain thresholds – including a daily case average of less than five over the previous 14 days before some restrictions are eased.
“I’m always a bit sceptical about modelling, and it seems completely crazy to set these very low thresholds before people can get out and about in Victoria,” Senator Canavan said.
“It seems to me there has been a secret change in strategy and that needs to be explained.
“Apparently some kind of supercomputer was used.”
Senator Canavan said Mr Andrews also needed to answer why he was unable to improve testing and tracing capabilities to the standard needed.
READ THE FULL VERSION OF THIS STORY, HERE
EVEN MORE JOBS TO BE ANNIHILATED ON ROAD TO RECOVERY
New has modelling suggested Victoria’s extended lockdown could cost the state another 260,000 jobs as business and industry groups demand urgent support packages.
The Institute of Public Affairs modelling, based on jobs and wages data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, forecasts another 260,000 jobs will be lost during the extended lockdown period.
Its data shows 432,000 Victorians have already been left without work, suggesting the expected total job losses since restrictions were first introduced in March will be close to 700,000.
The latest government modelling predicts unemployment will soar to 11 per cent in the September quarter but that did not factor in further extended lockdowns.
A government spokesman said further modelling would be released in due course.
Premier Daniel Andrews said the government would soon unveil business support and relief, with consultations under way with industry and business groups.
It comes after intense business backlash to his road map to recovery, revealed on Sunday.
“We’ll be as quick as we can be, but we have to give businesses, I think, that very direct opportunity to feed in about the types of assistance they want,” Mr Andrews said.
IPA research fellow Cian Hussey said the government had crushed jobs, small business and the spirit of Victorians with continued lockdown.
“Mainstream Victorians in small businesses, the self-employed, and those in the productive, private parts of the economy are getting smashed while public servants and bureaucrats have never been wealthier,” he said.
A Herald Sun poll of more than 8200 people found 84 per cent were “disappointed restrictions have been extended for so long”.
Lord Mayor Sally Capp said businesses prevented from operating needed urgent financial assistance, and called for hospitality and retail to reopen sooner if case numbers continued to drop.
“Our city is on its knees with business hanging on by a thread and the community anxious about the future,” she said. “We must work urgently together: this is not the time for delay or division. We are talking about people’s lives and livelihoods.
“To keep Melbourne afloat, our city needs to have a substantial Christmas trading period. The health message must remain strong, but we also need to do everything we can to help businesses survive.”
Small Business Australia boss Bill Lang said urgent cash injections were needed to help keep small business afloat.
But he said unlike the $5000 cash grants that were handed out earlier this year, any new grants had to be directly proportionate to the level of impact caused by the extended lockdown.
Mr Lang said half of Victoria’s 600,000 businesses, including all sole traders, had already missed out on grants because they didn’t meet government requirements.
He also called on the government to help businesses cover their rent.
The Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry said Victoria’s road map was “elimination in all but name”, warning that businesses would flee.
“Businesses face continuing, heavy restrictions, despite the fact they have COVID-safe plans and have shown their capability to prevent the spread of the virus in workplaces,” chief executive James Pearson said.
“We have to live with the risk of the virus, to suppress the virus, not eliminate it. But the Victorian plan is an elimination strategy in all but name.”
Tim Piper, Victorian head of industry association Ai Group, called for the government to introduce payroll tax relief to ease the burden for larger businesses, saying those with more than $3m in payroll costs had received next to no support.
Opposition leader Michael O’Brien said the lockdown would be devastating.
“This lockdown is going to be so devastating for so many Victorians. It is going to kill jobs, it is going to kill small business,” he said.
“It is going to make life so much harder for so many people.”
PREMIER COPS A STINGING REBUKE
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has challenged Victoria to re-examine whether its widely-criticised contact tracing can be improved to lift “worst-case” restrictions earlier.
In a clear sign Mr Morrison has lost patience with Daniel Andrews, the Prime Minister launched a scathing attack on the Premier’s handling of the state’s deadly second wave.
Mr Morrison also reaffirmed the federal government’s offer of more support to bolster Victoria’s contact tracing system.
It fears modelling underpinning the road map is based on Victoria’s inferior ability to track the virus, rather than NSW’s “gold standard” system that has contained outbreaks.
“New South Wales has a stronger capability when it comes to tracing,” Mr Morrison said. “And we want to provide support — as we already have — to the Victorian government through the ADF.”
Mr Morrison said Victoria’s lockdown extension was “crushing news”, and he hoped better tracing would avoid the “worst-case scenario” and see “Victorians having their livelihoods and their lives restored sooner.”
“We’ll be providing the constructive feedback to the Victorian government once we’ve had the opportunity to fully look at the assumptions that sit behind this plan,” he said.
“One of the questions that has been raised in relation to the Victorian plan is what assumption is being made about the efficacy of contact-tracing with the measures they’ve set out. To what extent would those restrictions be otherwise lessened if a higher capacity and functionality of contact tracing were present?”
Mr Morrison said lockdowns were “not signs of success” and their effects would “ripple” across the Australian economy. He also called on the Premier to present a clear plan to save the Victorian economy and businesses before more federal money was considered.
“This plan has some very severe impacts,” he said.
“We cannot create a burden that is too great to bear.
“The plan that was outlined (on Sunday), I hope, is a worst-case scenario.”
In a pointed attack, the Prime Minister said: “What I can’t help but be struck by is that, under the thresholds that have been set in that plan, Sydney would be under curfew now. Sydney doesn’t need to be under curfew now. They have a tracing capability that can deal with outbreaks.”
Mr Andrews rejected the comparison with NSW.
“They haven’t had the community transmission that we’ve had,” he said. “That’s not a point of pride. It’s just a fact. And trying to compare the two is not the same.”
The Premier also argued suggestions that under the same settings unveiled in his recovery road map, NSW would now be in lockdown.
“No, they wouldn’t. Because they’ve not had the community transmission we’ve had. So we are different,” he said. “And you’ve got to have settings that marry up with that difference, otherwise it’s not a strategy, it’s just a plan of hope. But false hope.”
Mr Andrews said Victoria’s contact tracing team, which now numbered about 2600, was hitting its targets.
Mr Andrews, also said a team of experts that have been active in Victoria will be sent to Sydney soon to “double and triple check” how each of the state’s are responding to outbreaks and contract tracing.
Opposition leader Michael O’Brien said the move to compare the state’s system with interstate systems was too little too late.
“Why has it taken six months to realise he needs to go up to NSW and see how things are done properly?” Mr O’Brien said.
“Contract tracing is the only way we can safely open this state and Daniel Andrews has stuffed it.”
Last month the Herald Sun revealed reluctance by Victoria’s health authorities to share contact tracing data led to Federal government intervention.
The ADF was sent in at the start of the second wave to improve systems and bolster numbers after it was revealed some people had not been fully contact traced a week after testing positive.
Victoria’s Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton also said the two states could not be compared because NSW had less community transmission.
“We’re hitting the straps with the contact tracing metrics and performance metrics that we’re looking at each and every day,” Prof Sutton said.
“We’re contacting all of those cases for interview every day within the first 24 hours.”
— Tamsin Rose
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